on July 25, 2025

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Our View

It’s going to take something large to knock the markets off their lockstep.

It’s 1:01 and this hit the tape: Fitch Ratings – Tariff, market, and geopolitical risks persist for global credit. The ES had traded up to 6415.25 at 11:03.

It’s an amazing thing: the S&P is making its 13th new all-time contract high in 2025, even as the bond market shows signs of further distress. The 10-year note and the 30-year bond futures got pounded and then bounced. This late headline was probably part of the drop.

Just before the headline hit, the ES had traded back up near the 6418.25 high, then had a weird, delayed reaction to the news and dropped to the 6403.50 level around 2:45. It rallied up to a lower high at the 6415 level, and then some pre-MOC sell programs hit. The MIM came out $2.7 billion to sell. It downticked again and traded 6401.75 on the 4:00 cash close.

TSLA dropped 9%, the ES made a low at 6399.25, then traded back up to the 6406 level and settled at 6401.75 on the 5:00 futures close.

You usually don’t hear that much after 5:00, but the Donald made a guest appearance at the Federal Reserve, where he berated Powell about the growing cost of the renovation. When a reporter asked if there was anything the Chairman could say that would make him back off from his criticism, Trump fired back that he would love to see lower rates—and that he wants to see rates a lot lower.

In the end, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.6%, the Hang Seng closed up 0.51%, the FTSE gained 0.85%, and the DAX closed up 0.23%.

In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it remained firm. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was lower, with just over 1M contracts traded.

That was not the only Trump headline. It looks like he’s trying to make friends with Elon Musk while the Epstein story continues to flourish.

Our Lean

The only economic release today is the 8:30 Durable Goods, and we have a total of 48 earnings reports.

The only thing I have to say is: the ES keeps taking a licking but keeps on ticking… higher, that is. The 6400–6380 range is key.

Our lean: If I had my choice of an opening trade, it would be to buy a lower open. I can’t rule out selling the open if we gap higher, but I also want to remind everyone that it is counter-trending. Buying pullbacks is the money train, and today’s $3.4 trillion Friday expiration could help that cause.

On the upside, the bulls need the ES to hold above 6420 to see 6450.

Guest Posts:

SpotGamma Founders Note:

Get instant access to our partners’ real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night’s Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

Founder’s Note:

The S&P 500 closed at $6,370 off a minimal 0.03% daily change and 0.34% intraday range aligning with expectations of low volatility dominating due to 0DTE option selling. That light range was against fairly significant options delta hedging pressure, indicated by a large S&P 500 HIRO of -$5.3bn. Just as the S&P was quiet, there was not much else of significance happening out there.

Ultimately so much of todays session was dictated by the 6,380 0DTE strike – a strike which held 99th %’ile positive gamma until 2:30PM…

..when the strike was closed, timing with a sharp HIRO drop and the SPX losing 6,380 to trade down to 6,370.

On to a vol check, we see that SPX vols are still on their descent aided by a lack of news and tight trading ranges. In fact, all upside strikes for pre-FOMC are at single digits – which is the lower bound for SPX vol. Post-FOMC vols are not exactly freaked out, they are in the 11s.

Lastly – during the Q&A we were discussing the draw of 6,400 tomorrow due to big expiring OI. Well, that ~16k OI was closed up today to ~4k, which reduces some of tomorrows negative gamma upside. This seems to suggest another sleepy session ahead for Friday into the summer weekend. Boring.

Get instant access to our partners real-time market data and insights not available anywhere else. Here is last night Founder’s note getting you ready for today’s market and explaining the constraints in yesterday’s market. – MrTopStep

MiM and Daily Recap

Thursday’s ES session began with mild overnight weakness as prices faded from 6404.00 to a pre-market low of 6399.00 at 00:30, before rebounding to a lower high at 6403.50 by 02:00. Selling resumed, driving the market to a fresh Globex low of 6393.50 at 03:55, followed by a recovery into 06:00 with an

11-point climb to 6404.50. A brief pullback to 6395.75 by 06:30 marked a higher low before bulls pushed ES to the Globex high of 6406.75 at 07:30. However, selling pressure re-emerged in the final hour of Globex, dropping prices sharply to 6391.50 at 08:45, the lowest print of the entire session.

The regular session opened at 6402.25 and quickly rallied, printing 6410.25 by 09:48, then extending to a cash session high of 6415.50 at 11:00. After a brief dip to 6409.25 at 11:36, ES attempted to retest the highs, reaching 6413.75 at 11:51 before rolling over. A sharp 14.75-point selloff followed, taking the index to a midday low of 6399.00 at 12:27.

Buyers reappeared in the early afternoon, sparking a 17.75-point rally to a session high of 6416.75 by 13:15. The move was faded again, leading to a decline to 6408.75 at 13:42. Another push came at 15:24 with a lower high at 6414.50, which was subsequently followed by two sharp drops: first to 6400.50 at 14:45, then to a final cash-session low of 6399.25 at 16:03. The market firmed into the close, finishing the regular session at 6401.75, down -0.50 from the open and up 2.75 points (+0.04%) from the prior day’s close. Globex volume came in at 129,630 contracts, while regular hours volume registered 837,964.

Market Tone & Notable Factors

The overall tone was two-sided with multiple failed breakout attempts above the 6415 area, despite a resilient series of intraday rallies. Bulls maintained control early, but the inability to hold higher highs led to persistent selling into each bounce. The final cleanup session lifted ES modestly to a close of 6406.50.

Market-on-Close (MOC) data showed a strong sell imbalance of -3.5 billion, with a symbol imbalance of -67.2%, crossing the key -66% threshold for a strong directional signal. The aggressive imbalance weighed on prices in the final hour, contributing to the late-day weakness.

Despite the volatility, the session closed with a modest net gain of 2.75 points (+0.04%) from the previous close, holding above key support but lacking conviction to push through resistance. The persistent whipsaws and heavy sell programs into the close may hint at growing caution heading into the next session.

How to read the MIM

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6331.00. This is the key pivot level for the session. Price is currently trading at 6342.00, just above the bull/bear line, indicating potential bullish momentum as long as it holds above.

If ES continues to hold above 6331.00, the upside targets include 6345.50 and 6373.75, the upper range target for today. A move through that zone opens the door for a test of 6413.75 and potentially higher.

If price fails to hold above the bull/bear line, look for initial support at 6299.25, followed by the lower range target of 6288.50. A break below this zone could lead to further downside toward 6248.25.

The current structure favors a bullish bias above 6331.00, with sellers needing to push price decisively below 6299.25 to regain control.

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 23,371.00. Price is currently trading above this level, with the Globex high reaching 23,422, suggesting bullish sentiment going into the day.

If price holds above 23,371.00, we look for continuation higher toward the upper range target of 23,520.25. A breakout above this level opens the door to test 23,660.75 as the next resistance. Continued strength above that could trigger further momentum toward the 23,700–23,800 zone.

If NQ falls back below 23,371.00, it would shift the bias to bearish, with immediate support at 23,298.25. The lower range target for today is 23,222.00. A break below that level brings 23,081.50 into view as deeper support.

Holding above 23,371.00 keeps bulls in control. Below it, caution is warranted as selling pressure could increase quickly.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for July 25, 2025

SP: 34.15
NQ: 143.2
Dow: 180.17

Daily Breadth Data 📊

For Thursday, July 24, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 33% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 62% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 35% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 123 / 23
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 241 / 53
• NYSE TRIN: 1.13
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.31

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Week Ending Friday, July 18, 2025

• NYSE Breadth: 53% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 42% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 54% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 49% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 207 / 76
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 473 / 177
• NYSE TRIN: 0.62
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.64

Calendars

Economic Calendar Today

This Week’s High Importance

Earnings:

Full Calendars

Trading Room News:

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Thursday, July 24, 2025

Market Overview:

The session opened with a Cycle Day 2 (CD2) expectation, which typically includes back-and-fill consolidation and Mean After Trend Day (MATD) rhythms.
Traders were digesting recent tech earnings and a new all-time high, contributing to a more balanced market tone.
PTGDavid noted that primary cycle objectives had already been achieved, so any further upside would be considered “gravy.”

Trade Plan and Execution:

Initial sandbox zone was identified at 6395–6405.
Bullish scenario called for holding a bid above 6390, targeting the 6415–6420 zone.
Price action confirmed the plan, ultimately achieving the 6415 target by late morning.
The 6415 level was emphasized both in the pre-market plan and again at execution, providing a strong reinforcement of the roadmap strategy.

Community and Education:

Strong participation and questions around charting tools, especially Sierra Chart.
PTGDavid provided a link to a Sierra Chart video resource for further learning.
Discussions included identifying volume structure (POC, LVN), interpreting bull stackers, and using indicators across platforms.

Key Lessons and Takeaways:

Well-structured pre-market planning, combined with adherence to CD2 expectations, led to a clean trade opportunity.
Identifying key structure zones like 6390 support and POC at 6400 was essential in executing the bull case.
Community learning remained strong, especially around platform usage and trade logic.
Patience and discipline were emphasized, particularly during the range-bound session.

DTG Room Preview – Friday, July 25, 2025

The S&P 500 recorded its fourth consecutive all-time high, buoyed by strong Google earnings.
In an unusual event, President Trump toured a Fed construction site with Chairman Powell, using the occasion to renew his push for rate cuts. A public correction on project costs added drama.
As index volatility drops, traders are chasing action in meme stocks. HCTI led Thursday’s volume surge, trading over 3 billion shares and closing up 115% with no clear catalyst.
Intel (INTC) is down over 8% since Wednesday despite beating revenue estimates. EPS missed due to impairment charges; the company will cut 15% of its workforce. INTC is now dwarfed by AMD and Nvidia in market cap.
Today’s earnings highlights include AON, BAH, CNC, CHTR, E, FCNCA, HCA, PSX, SHG, and SCCO.
Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am ET is the key economic release today. ES volatility remains compressed, with a 5-day ADR of 40.75. Downside may trigger expansion.
Whale positioning is short ahead of the Durable Goods release on notable overnight volume.
ES resistance remains at 6430/33s; a push through could target the 6500 area. Support lies at 6181/86s, 6136/41s, and 5688/93s.
Looking ahead: Next week brings major catalysts with a Fed decision, jobs report, tariff deadline, and earnings from AAPL, META, and MSFT.

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!!