Way Too Much Complacency In The US Stock Market

Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

• In Asia 11 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -5.22%, Hang Seng -3.54%, Nikkei -3.89%
• In Europe 13 out of 13 markets are trading lower: CAC -1.45%, DAX -0.88%, FTSE -1.59%
• Fair Value: S&P +3.73, NASDAQ +20.57, Dow +4.48
• Total Volume: 3.45mil ESZ & 723 SPZ traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

Today’s economic calendar includes Weekly Bill Settlement, 52-Week Bill Settlement, CPI 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET, Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM ET.

S&P 500 Futures: Is The Trump Rally Over? Sure Looks That Way

VIX 1-Month Chart

After dragging lower late, in what was otherwise a quiet globex session, the S&P 500 futures printed 2879.50 on the 8:30 open, and made a high of day two ticks above there. Waves of massive sell programs started coming in, hitting on the half hour mark, pulling the ES down to 2851 just after 9:00. Then, after a failed bounce to 2861.75, the ES dropped again to 2837.75 just before the Euro close. At that point buyers did come in to give the futures a lift, taking advantage of a thinner lunch time, as the ES pushed up to a midday high of 2850.00.

The afternoon opened with a drop to new lows at 2834.25 just after 12:00, and after another failed bounce up to 2849.25 the selling resumed, as the S&P’s made new lows down to 2821.25. The MiM opened up showing $500 million to sell heading into the final hour of the day, and ended with over $2.5 billion for sale. The 2:00 hour saw increased selling as one sell program after another pulled the benchmark equity futures down to 2889.50, then printing 2892.50, and then 2780.00, before settling the day at 2781.00, down -106.75 handles, or -3.89%.

In the end the days trade was a big fat mess. The global markets have been jittery in recent days as fears about growth in China take hold. According to Tao Wang, UBS’s chief China economist, “The larger the stimulus used by China to offset the trade war impact, the bigger will its deficit likely be.” The markets are also worried about the ongoing Italian debt crisis and the rising price of oil. Forget the markets overall tone, it wasn’t bad, it was horrible. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, over 3.45 million futures traded. That’s a lot of spoos!