S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) (09:45 AM ET): This flash reading provides an early look at the health of the services sector, a dominant part of the U.S. economy. A strong reading (above 50) indicates expansion, while a weaker reading suggests contraction, influencing expectations for overall economic growth.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) (09:45 AM ET): Similar to the services PMI, this report offers a snapshot of the manufacturing sector’s activity. Continued expansion in manufacturing supports the broader economic outlook.

Existing Home Sales (May) (10:00 AM ET): This report is a key indicator of the health of the housing market and broader consumer activity. A decrease in sales would underscore ongoing challenges in the housing sector.

Existing Home Sales MoM (May) (10:00 AM ET): The month-over-month change in existing home sales further illustrates the trend in housing market momentum.

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (10:00 AM ET): Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled for testimony, providing a crucial opportunity for markets to gain further clarity on the Fed’s economic outlook and monetary policy intentions. His remarks will be closely watched for any divergence from previous statements or new insights into the Fed’s reaction function.

New Home Sales (May) (10:00 AM ET): This report measures the sales of newly constructed single-family homes. A rebound in new home sales indicates strength in the construction sector and buyer demand, influencing future housing starts and economic activity.

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (10:00 AM ET): This is Chair Powell’s second testimony this week. Markets will be looking for continued consistency in his message or any new nuances regarding the Fed’s stance on inflation and economic growth.

Initial Jobless Claims (Jun/21) (08:30 AM ET): This weekly data provides a real-time pulse on the health of the labor market. A sustained increase in claims could signal a softening job market, potentially influencing the Fed’s path.

Durable Goods Orders MoM (May) (08:30 AM ET): This report measures new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods. It’s a key indicator of manufacturing activity and business investment. A robust increase signals economic expansion, particularly in the industrial sector.

GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Q1) (08:30 AM ET): This final revision of the first-quarter GDP growth rate will provide a definitive measure of economic expansion. Any significant revision could impact market expectations for future growth and monetary policy.

Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun/14) (08:30 AM ET): This data indicates the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits, offering further insight into the persistence of unemployment.

Goods Trade Balance (May) (08:30 AM ET): This report provides a look at the U.S. trade deficit in goods, offering insights into international trade flows and demand for U.S. products.

Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Jun/21) (08:30 AM ET): The 4-week moving average smooths out weekly volatility in jobless claims, providing a clearer trend of labor market health.

Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Q1) (08:30 AM ET): This is another look at the first-quarter GDP, focusing on the quarter-over-quarter percentage change.

Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (May) (08:30 AM ET): This metric excludes volatile defense orders, providing a cleaner view of core business investment.

Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (May) (08:30 AM ET): Excluding transportation orders removes another highly volatile component, offering a refined measure of underlying demand for durable goods.

Personal Spending MoM (May) (08:30 AM ET): This report measures consumer spending, a major driver of the U.S. economy. A strong reading suggests robust demand and economic momentum.

Personal Income MoM (May) (08:30 AM ET): This data indicates the change in individual income, which directly influences consumer spending power.

Core PCE Price Index YoY (May) (08:30 AM ET): As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, this annual reading is crucial. A persistent increase could reinforce a hawkish Fed stance.

Core PCE Price Index MoM (May) (08:30 AM ET): The month-over-month change in core PCE provides a more immediate look at inflationary pressures, excluding volatile food and energy components.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun) (10:00 AM ET): This final reading of consumer sentiment provides further insight into consumer confidence and inflation expectations.

Accenture (ACN) – Before Open: As a leading global professional services company, Accenture’s earnings offer insights into IT consulting, outsourcing, and digital transformation trends across various industries.

Kroger (KR) – Before Open: As a major grocery retailer, Kroger’s earnings offer insights into consumer spending on essentials, inflationary pressures on food prices, and the competitive landscape in the grocery sector.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) – Before Open: The parent company of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, Darden’s results will reflect trends in casual dining, consumer discretionary spending on dining out, and labor cost pressures.

CarMax (KMX) – Before Open: As a used car retailer, CarMax’s earnings will provide clues about consumer demand for vehicles, used car pricing trends, and the impact of interest rates on auto financing.

FactSet (FDS) – Before Open: As a financial data and analytics provider, FactSet’s earnings can serve as a bellwether for the financial services industry’s health and investment in data solutions.

Carnival (CCL) – Before Open: A leading cruise operator, Carnival’s report will shed light on the travel and leisure sector’s recovery, consumer travel demand, and the impact of fuel costs and geopolitical tensions on the industry.

FedEx (FDX) – After Close: As a major global logistics and delivery company, FedEx’s earnings offer a bellwether for global trade, e-commerce trends, and overall economic activity, particularly in freight volumes and pricing.

Paychex (PAYX) – Before Open: Providing human capital management solutions, Paychex’s results offer insights into small and medium-sized business hiring trends, wage growth, and the overall health of the employment market.

General Mills (GIS) – Before Open: A leading food company, General Mills’ earnings will shed light on consumer spending on packaged foods, inflationary pressures on food prices, and the competitive landscape in the grocery sector.

Micron Technology (MU) – After Close: As a major producer of memory and storage solutions, Micron’s earnings are a key indicator for the semiconductor industry and demand for data centers, PCs, and mobile devices.

McCormick & Company (MKC) – Before Open: As a global leader in spices, flavors, and seasonings, McCormick’s earnings will indicate consumer trends in food and beverage, as well as commodity costs.

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) – Before Open: A major retail pharmacy chain, Walgreens’ report will shed light on healthcare spending, pharmacy trends, and consumer retail behavior.

Nike (NKE) – After Close: As a global leader in athletic footwear and apparel, Nike’s earnings will provide insights into consumer discretionary spending, athletic trends, and supply chain dynamics.

Copper is highly correlated with economic growth because of its extensive use in construction, manufacturing, and electronics. When economic activity is robust, demand for copper tends to rise, pushing its price higher.

Gold, on the other hand, is often seen as a safe-haven asset that performs well during periods of economic uncertainty, inflation fears, or geopolitical instability.

Weakening Economic Growth: A decline indicates that copper prices are underperforming gold, signaling a potential slowdown in global industrial activity and economic expansion. This can imply reduced demand for industrial commodities.

Deflationary or Disinflationary Pressures: It can also suggest that inflationary pressures are easing, or even that disinflation/deflation might be on the horizon, as demand-driven price increases for industrial inputs (like copper) diminish relative to a store of value (gold).

Risk Aversion: The outperformance of gold points to increasing market caution and a flight to safety among investors, signaling heightened concerns about future economic stability or increased geopolitical risks.

NATO Summit (June 24-26, 2025, The Hague, Netherlands): For the first time, the Netherlands will host the NATO Summit. This event is highly significant given the ongoing war in Ukraine, alliance unity, and the implications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Key discussions will likely revolve around increased defense spending, support for Ukraine, and addressing new security challenges. Any major announcements or shifts in alliance strategy could impact European markets and defense stocks.

Internet Governance Forum (June 23-27, 2025, Lillestrom, Norway): This UN meeting will bring together stakeholders to discuss critical issues related to internet policy, digital rights, and the future of online governance. While not directly market-moving, discussions on data privacy, cybersecurity, and global digital frameworks can have long-term implications for technology companies and digital economies.

Escalating Israel-Iran Tensions: The conflict has entered its second week with heightened intensity. The United States conducted strikes targeting three Iranian nuclear facilities with bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles, as of June 22, 2025. U.S. and Israeli officials suggest “extreme damage” was inflicted, potentially setting back Iran’s nuclear program. In retaliation, Iran has reportedly launched multiple missile barrages at Israel, with some impacts reported in populated areas. Iran has also threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and may have interfered with GPS signals. This continued escalation poses significant risks to global oil supplies, potentially driving prices higher, and increases demand for safe-haven assets like gold. The broader risk of regional destabilization remains a primary concern for investors.

US-China Trade Dynamics: While no specific scheduled trade talks are highlighted for next week, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and trade relations with China continues to be a backdrop for market sentiment. The potential for new tariffs or trade disputes could resurface as a market driver at any time, especially with recent federal court rulings allowing the enforcement of global tariffs.

Bull/Bear Line: 5968.31

Upper Target: 6065.72

Lower Target: 5916.63

Bull/Bear Line: 21675.94

Upper Target: 22052.88

Lower Target: 21369.85

Bull/Bear Line: 42486.59

Upper Target: 43054.64

Lower Target: 41918.54

Bull/Bear Line: 80.47

Upper Target: 91.38

Lower Target: 74.60

Bull/Bear Line: 317.26

Upper Target: 319.60

Lower Target: 313.00

Short-term (1-month to 10-year): Most yields in this segment declined. The 1-month yield dropped by 5.3 basis points (bps) to 4.196%, and the 3-year yield decreased by 4.8 bps to 3.932%. Even the 10-year yield saw a 2.6 bps decline to 4.450%. This suggests a modest easing of expectations for short-to-medium term interest rates.

Long-term (20-year to 30-year): Yields at the very long end experienced slight increases. The 20-year yield rose by 0.6 bps to 4.973%, and the 30-year yield increased by 1.8 bps to 4.959%.