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When It Gets Too Easy: A Bull’s Warning Before the Shakeout
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Our View
The ES made a 6758.25 low and a 6776.25 high on Globex, and traded 6773.25 on the 9:30 ET regular session open. It upticked briefly, then sold off down to 6764.59 at 9:43. A tech buy program hit shortly after, pushing the ES all the way up to 6802.75 at 12:18.
From there, the ES sold off down to 6793.75 at 12:56, rallied up to 6799.75, pulled back to 6795.75, then rallied again to 6801.75. After a minor dip to 6796.25, the ES pushed higher to 6802.75 at 2:18. It then sold off down to 6792.50 at 3:00 before bouncing back to 6801.25 at 3:35. It pulled back a few points and traded 6800 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $1.2 billion to buy. The ES traded 6802.75 at 3:55 and 6801.25 on the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES rallied to a new RTH high at 6807.75 by 4:30 and settled at 6803.25, up 41.75 points or +0.62%.
The NQ traded all the way up to 25,354.00, gaining 314.75 points or +1.26% on the day. The YM closed up 0.05%, and the RTY closed at 2500.20, up 26.70 points or +1.06% on the day.
In the end, the opening burst higher in the NQ told the story of the entire day. The ES made its low after the open and never looked back.
In terms of the ES’s and NQ’s overall tone, the ES made its 33rd new high of the year, and the NQ made its 32nd new high in 2025. In terms of overall ES trade, volume dropped 373k contracts from Tuesday’s 1.373 million to 1 million contracts traded.
Some days I have it, and some days I don’t—but I noticed the NQ buying in the first few seconds of the session and it didn’t stop:
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:30:07 AM) : here we go
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:30:44 AM) : nw buys
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:31:17 AM) : more nq buys
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:32:14 AM) : all nq
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:32:52 AM) : NQ buy imbalances continue
IMPRO : Dboy : (9:56:26 AM) : all nq
IMPRO : Dboy : (10:13:45 AM) : so they sell the ES a bit as they buy the NQ and then the program ends and the bots buy the ES
IMPRO : Dboy : (10:33:15 AM) : the fix is in NHOTC
(I even threw this in: NHOTC = New Highs On The Close)
The NQ rallied 158 points in just 35 minutes on that initial push up.
MrTopStep: The Government Will Reopen By the End of the Week
I told my chatroom and Twitter that I thought the government would reopen by the end of the week, and this is what I got back:
IMPRO : JB : (2:49:17 PM) : Danny you mentioned this. Heres the odds.
Well, I didn’t know about the @Kalshi odds, but the ES and NQ sure didn’t seem to care, as they both closed at record highs.
There is no doubt that the longer our government officials wait to strike a deal, the more the odds favor a letdown. News just hit that the Senate vote failed for the 6th time. That means I have two more votes this week.
E-mini S&P 500 December 2025 Futures: Up A Day / Down A Day Data
Date
Close
Change
Change %
10/08/2025
6,801.25
+39.75
+0.59%
10/07/2025
6,761.50
-27.25
-0.40%
10/06/2025
6,788.75
+24.75
+0.37%
10/03/2025
6,764.00
-2.75
-0.04%
10/02/2025
6,766.75
+5.25
+0.08%
Since Sept 26, the ES has closed higher in 7 out of the last 9 sessions, with 10/03/25 being down just -0.04%.
Since Oct 1 (the start of the government shutdown), the ES is up in 4 of the last 6 sessions, again with 10/03/25 being down only -0.04%.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that while the ES and NQ have been trading up a day / down a day, the upside gains have been fatter than the down days. And the way they act, they don’t want to go down—even if the odds of a shutdown are 24.6 days, the buyers are still buying the pullbacks.
On Tap
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8:30 AM: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell – Opening remarks
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8:35 AM: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman – Welcoming remarks
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8:45 AM: Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks
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12:45 PM: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Michael Barr – Discussion
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3:45 PM: Kashkari and Barr continue discussion
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4:10 PM: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
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9:40 PM: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks again
Fed Blackout Period: Saturday, October 18 – Thursday, October 30
Our View
Everything is moving—Oracle jumped 1.5%, gold hit a record high of $4,043.30, the yen slumped after the election, and the yield on the 10-year note settled at 4.128%, up from 4.096% earlier in the session. The dollar index (DXY) closed higher for its third day in a row. Bitcoin (BTZ25) closed down 3.11% on Wednesday and gained 1.39% Thursday. Crude closed up 0.70% Wednesday and fell 0.95% on Globex. Live cattle has been up four sessions in a row.
I know this may seem benign, but this is just a small sample of the markets that are moving.
Our Lean
I may have been a little shy in yesterday’s view, but I did say I thought it could go higher—and some of my support and resistance levels worked. That said, as we go higher, the uncertainty comes into play around the gap-up open or early push higher. While I’m still a bull guy, the ES and NQ are up so much that you never really know when selling the gap-up into new highs isn’t the high print for the day… or even longer.
Does this mean I’m turning negative? No—but when it gets this easy, there’s always a shakeout lurking.
Our lean: Sell a gap-up open—hopefully 10 to 20 points higher would be nice—and then buy pullbacks. I doubt they can pull off another NQ rip like they did yesterday. If the ES gaps lower, I’m a buyer and would also be looking for the double pump.
Support: 6795–6797, 6792, 6782–6784, 6773, 6764, 6759, 6748 (big)
Resistance: 6818, 6824, 6830, 6844, 6850, 6865
As always, use stops—learn to live another day.
Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan, America’s largest bank, said: “There is a higher risk of a serious fall in U.S. stocks than is currently being reflected in the market.”
He added, “I am far more worried than others” about a significant market correction, which he believes could come within the next six months to two years.
Dimon also said the U.S. has become a “less reliable” partner on the world stage. He cautioned he’s still “a little worried” about inflation in the US, but insisted he thought the Federal Reserve would stay independent, despite repeated attacks by the Trump administration on Chair Jerome Powell.
Link to the full story above (it’s not good). Tell me I’m wrong, but it seems the future is becoming more and more clouded.
MiM and Daily Recap
Intraday Recap
The ES traded in a two-sided fashion overnight, beginning the Globex session at 6766.00 and rising to 6776.50 at 18:50 before pulling back to 6758.25 at 20:10. Buyers briefly regained control, pushing the contract to 6772.50 by 22:30, but the tone remained rotational, with a decline to 6759.00 at 02:40. Another rebound carried ES to 6774.50 at 04:40, followed by a series of lower highs into the morning as trade narrowed between 6764.25 at 06:10 and 6765.75 at 08:10. The overnight range printed 18.25 points top-to-bottom, closing the session modestly higher at 6773.25, up 7.25 points (+0.11%).
The regular session opened at 6773.25 and initially dipped to 6764.50 at 09:40, establishing the low of the day before launching a steady morning advance. The ES climbed through resistance to 6802.75 by 12:15, marking a gain of 43.25 points (+0.64%) from the morning low. A midday retracement brought prices down to 6793.75 at 12:50, followed by another attempt higher that reached 6802.75 again at 14:20, confirming resistance near the prior high. Sellers briefly pressed the tape down to 6792.25 at 15:00 before a late afternoon recovery into the closing hour lifted ES back toward 6807.75 at 16:45. The regular session closed at 6802.00, a 28.75-point rise (+0.42%) from the open and +39.50 points (+0.58%) versus the prior day’s cash close.
In the cleanup session, ES held a tight range between 6800.00 and 6807.75, settling near 6803.25 to complete the day’s full-session gain of 37.25 points (+0.55%). Combined volume reached just over 1.0 million contracts, with roughly 816,000 traded during the cash session.
Overall, the session built on prior momentum after Tuesday’s late-day recovery, with a clear upward bias despite intermittent intraday pullbacks. Each dip into the 6790s was met with responsive buying, showing continued appetite near support levels. The highs in the 6805–6808 zone capped the advance heading into the close, establishing a new short-term ceiling.
Market tone leaned bullish, driven by steady sector participation and strong buy-side interest into the close. The Market-on-Close imbalance registered $2.41 billion, with 69.5% of total flow to buy and 52.7% of symbols leaning positive—signaling broad yet controlled accumulation. Semiconductors led the buy imbalance, with NVDA (+$323M), TSLA (+$244M), and AMD (+$178M) dominating the top flows. On the sell side, JNJ (-$65M), EQT (-$64M), and DHR (-$62M) reflected defensive rotation out of healthcare and energy.
Sector-level data reinforced the bullish undercurrent: Technology (+$1.28B net buy) and Communication Services (+$423M) outperformed, while Energy (-$198M) and Financials (-$112M) lagged. The imbalance bias above +66% supported late-day strength, helping the ES finish near the upper end of its range. The sustained buy pressure into the 4:00 PM cash close suggests continuation potential if overnight support holds near 6790–6792.
Dan @ GTC Traders
DIAGEO (DEO) … The Biggest Loser
Stop Fighting It. Enjoy the 32 Seconds.
For some unknown reason, whenever equities markets start to grind and rally higher and higher and higher as they are now? There seems to be always this almost human-like need to fight that rally and look for short opportunities in a manner that is fighting against the grain.
To be sure? We are not against short opportunities or looking for shorts. We have a short-only program that has been doing very, very well even in this environment.
But the overall point is that for some unknown reason, people want to fight a rally that is just grinding higher and higher in equities. If we were to give advice, it would be to stop fighting and enjoy it. Now, very obviously, for longer-term programs, we can enjoy a bit of freedom and we’ve talked about that in past articles. Very obviously, for intra-day traders and folks who are just scalping for 10 minutes at a time or putting on a position that may last an hour, what we say here may not necessarily apply. But to the longer periodicity programs and models that we demonstrate with the GTC Sample Portfolio, times like this afford a great deal of freedom.
So … it’s good to enjoy times like these.
We have our long-only programs (Equity Fixed Income Hybrid Core) and our trading programs that have long-equity pieces to them. In previous entries … we have been discussing that you can start to eye up when you are in a quiet period, and how ‘strict’ you need to be with yourself with regularly scheduled ‘check-in’s to see if any adjustments can be made. No need to repeat those comments now.
But we will say, if you noticed in our Community Chats earlier? We timed ourselves as to how long does it actually take during quiet periods like this one (that part is key) to check in on the market to see if any adjustments will be necessary?
32 seconds is what we came up with.
It won’t always be like this. Heck, in the future, we’re going to do all sorts of different things with these same programs, when both the capital increases … and when the macro-regime is different than it is now. And it will take more time each and every day. So yes … it won’t always be like this.
But when it is? Enjoy the freedom it affords. It took us 32 seconds to check our programs today. Even those trading models that live within a 5 day periodicity. We are making competitive linear returns … that is scalable … and during quiet periods we are also afforded a great deal of freedom. Again … enjoy it. Didn’t we get into trading, in order to have more freedom? Why fight quiet periods?
We’ve said it before: Trading is about longevity, not endless battles. Patience pays.
Until next time, stay safe … and trade well.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for October 9, 2025
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S&P: 46.55
-
NQ: 200.42
-
Dow: 250.35
Daily Breadth Data 📊
For Wednesday, October 8, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 54% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 68% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 67% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 64% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 62% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 141 / 41
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 343 / 80
• NYSE TRIN: 1.09
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.83
Weekly Breadth Data 📈
For the Week Ending Friday, October 3, 2025
• NYSE Breadth: 55% Upside Volume
• Nasdaq Breadth: 63% Upside Volume
• Total Breadth: 60% Upside Volume
• NYSE Advance/Decline: 56% Advance
• Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 60% Advance
• Total Advance/Decline: 59% Advance
• NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 315 / 91
• Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 748 / 238
• NYSE TRIN: 0.99
• Nasdaq TRIN: 0.88
BTS Levels:
ESZ2025
The bull/bear line for the ES is at 6794.00. This is the key pivot level (wPv) that separates bullish and bearish sentiment. Trading above this line favors continued upside momentum, while sustained trade below it would signal a shift back toward sellers.
Currently, ES is trading around 6801.75 in the Globex session, just above the bull/bear line, suggesting early bullish control heading into the U.S. session. If the price can hold above 6794.00, the first resistance comes at 6807.75, followed by 6825.00 and 6854.00, which is the upper range target for today. A push through 6825.00 would likely attract buyers for a test of the 6850s.
On the downside, support levels are at 6763.00 and 6758.25, the lower range target. A break below these could open the door to further downside toward 6733.75. Intraday traders should watch 6766.00 closely as the initial support on any pullback.
In summary, holding above 6794.00 keeps the short-term tone bullish with upside targets of 6825.00 and 6854.00. A failure back below 6794.00 could shift momentum toward 6763.00 and 6758.25. Bias remains bullish while ES holds above the bull/bear line.
NQZU2025
The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 25,276.75 (wPv). This is the key pivot level for today’s session. Holding above it signals a bullish bias, while trading below it turns the tone bearish.
Currently, NQ is trading near 25,327.25 in the Globex session, showing strength above the bull/bear line. If price sustains this level, we look for a push toward the upper range target at 25,474 (pr-25474). Beyond that, resistance stands at 25,556.50 (ubb2) and 25,659.50 (r1). A breakout above 25,659.50 would open the door for further upside momentum.
On the downside, initial support comes at 25,079.75 (ps-25079.75) and 25,026.25 (pL). The lower range target for today sits around 24,894 (s1-24894). A break below that would indicate a shift in control back to the bears.
Overall, NQ maintains a bullish bias above 25,276.75, with upside targets at 25,474 and 25,659.50. A sustained move below 25,276.75 would shift the short-term tone toward neutral to bearish, favoring tests of 25,079.75 and 24,894.
Calendars
Economic Calendar Today
This Week’s High Importance
Earnings:
Released
Trading Room News:
Polaris Trading Group Summary: Wednesday, October 8, 2025
Wednesday was a textbook trend day in the PTG trading room, driven by clean price structure, solid trade planning, and multiple fulfilled trade setups—particularly for those aligning with the Bullish bias and using Cycle Day + Clock synergy.
Key Trades & Positive Outcomes
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Early Bullish Scenario Fulfilled: David outlined the bullish scenario pre-market—above 6750 targeting 6770–6775. This target was hit early, reinforcing confidence in the plan.
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CL (Crude Oil) Open Range Short – All Targets Fulfilled: David called this trade out live and confirmed its success shortly after. Great execution in energy.
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NQ Open Range Long – All Targets Hit: This was another standout trade from David during the midday session, perfectly managed and fulfilled.
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ES AM Long – Manny’s Precision Trade: Manny’s long from AM low at 6785/87, scaled out at +3, +5, +8, +10, showcasing beautiful alignment of price, structure, and time. He later entered again at 6796.50 and scaled out at 6801.50, narrowly missing full targets but demonstrating disciplined execution.
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Dynamic D-Level Support Held Late Day: In the last hour, buyers defended the 90–93 “Money Box” zone, leading to a bullish reclaim of the 96 handle, ending the session strong with MOC Buy Imbalances peaking at $2.5B.
Lessons & Insights
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“Clock and Structure” in Harmony: Both David and Manny highlighted the effectiveness of combining time windows with price action. While not always precise to the minute, the windows provided key zones of awareness, notably the:
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AM Low Window (10:00–10:55) – Manny bought a pullback successfully.
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Lunchtime Low (12:00–1:00) – Provided a strong pivot.
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Afternoon High (2:00–2:55) – Delivered a window to manage exits.
-
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Trading Psychology Reinforced:
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“Trust the Process” and “No Regret Mentality” were strong themes.
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Manny and David emphasized not chasing hindsight or perfection.
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Traders discussed sticking to the plan, protecting mental capital, and avoiding emotional decisions.
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Education & Mentorship Value:
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Manny and David offered real-time walkthroughs, chart markups, and answered nuanced questions about setups and timing windows.
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Great reminder from David: “Market doesn’t care what you want… it gives you what you need.”
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Market Structure & Flow
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Trend Day Identified Early: Despite a choppy early structure, the market exhibited strong continuation, aligning with “buy-the-dip” behavior.
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Captain Condor Gamma Levels provided context, with 6670–6730 as support zones never truly threatened.
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Afternoon Strength was fueled by trapped shorts and a growing MOC Buy Imbalance, confirming bulls in control.
Final Thoughts
Yesterday was a great example of preparation meeting opportunity. Trade plans were respected, timing tools were applied with context, and the team leaned into bullish structure without chasing. Traders like Manny showed strong discipline and transparency, and PTGDavid kept the room focused and informed.
A strong session filled with fulfilled setups, valuable lessons, and positive trade psychology reinforcement.
Key Takeaway: Trust your process, align with time and structure, and remain emotionally flexible. Even if trades don’t reach perfection, disciplined execution is the real win.
DTG Room Preview – Thursday, October 9, 2025
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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