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Our View

As expected, early Thursday, President Trump began attacking Fed Chair Powell again with a post on Truth Social, saying Powell has been too slow in cutting interest rates and that his “termination cannot come fast enough.” This came after the ECB cut interest rates by a quarter point—its seventh rate cut out of the last eight meetings.

Also late Thursday, Trump spoke to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh about replacing Powell before the end of his term. I personally do not think Powell has done a very good job, but trying to fire him will create another problem for investors and the stock and bond market. All you have to do is look at what happened after the December rate cut to see how fragile things are. The YM plunged by more than 1,100 points, the ES fell by 1.9%, and the NQ declined by 2.5%—everything is so rate sensitive.

This drop was attributed to the Fed’s projection of only two rate cuts in 2025, down from their initial forecast of four, which killed hopes for more aggressive easing. I guess when it comes to President Trump, there is no rest for the weary. If it’s not fighting with China and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he’s picking on the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve—at a time when bonds and notes have sold off sharply and added weakness to the stock market.

Here are the top five countries that hold US Treasuries:

Who’s to say that China doesn’t get pissed off enough to really decouple from the US economy and dump all their Treasuries? I think the US is opening itself up to other countries also selling, if they haven’t begun already.

I have a story, it is about the trading firm CRT. The three partners had a day where each of them made over $300 million. I knew the Riches from the grain room, but the other partner was Steve Klemens, the owner of LFG, a full clearing member of the CBOT, CME, and the COMEX. He sold his company to Refco because of losses, and then Refco blew up days after the acquisition.

I knew him very well, and he always treated me fairly, and I considered him to be very genuine. A few days before Refco was moving out of his office in the Sears Tower, I walked up and he was sitting at his desk—just a few things on the desk and a few pictures on the wall. He told me to come in, and I sat down in front of his desk. I said, “Steve, I have to ask you something,” and he said, “Fire away!”

“When you were up $320 million, why didn’t you sell?” He looked at me and said, “Hell yes, I did—but if I sold, the partners would have sold, and there just wasn’t that type of liquidity. We had to ease out of it.”

This is where many of these big bondholders probably are—too scared to sell. There is no way the US Treasury market could take on that kind of liquidation. It would cause a Treasury crash that could lead to a global financial meltdown. Who knows—maybe it’s all part of China’s plans.

There are only eight economic releases and eight Fed speakers this week, with seven of them coming on Tuesday and Wednesday. There are also three note auctions: the 2-year note auction is on Tuesday, the 5-year is on Wednesday, and the 7-year note auction is on Thursday.

So far, only 12% of the S&P has reported earnings. Q1 2025 S&P 500 earnings are tracking slightly below expectations, with lower-than-average earnings and revenue surprises. Growth is positive but tempered by tariff fears, economic slowdown, and cautious guidance. Financials and tech are bright spots, while energy and materials lag. The season is still early, and upcoming reports from 122 companies (including seven Dow 30 components) could shift trends.

Below is a list of the top 13 companies reporting earnings this week:

Our lean: The Federal Register notice posted by the US Trade Representative (USTR) on Thursday said the US government will charge fees on all Chinese-built and -owned ships docked in US ports, based on net tonnage or goods carried on each voyage. This would start in 180 days, with a $1.5 million per-port-call fee. One of these days, Trump is going to run out of things to place tariffs on—but that’s not today.

I also do not think the S&P goes down all year. At some point, the news will turn, and the S&P will rip higher. I don’t know about new highs, but 5800 could be possible. At some point, a lot of the tariffs will be negotiated and unwound, and before that happens, the stock market will start a real rally.

But… that’s not today, as the ES just traded down to 5279.00 on Globex. If the ES opens sharply lower off the open and it’s holding above the Globex low, I am a buyer for a day trade and would look to sell any 60- to 100-point rallies.

MiM and Daily Recap

The Thursday session began with early Globex weakness, as ES printed a low of 5293.25 at approximately 7:40 PM ET Wednesday, shortly after the overnight session began. A steady climb followed into the European hours, reaching the Globex high of 5371.25 around 3:30 AM. That 78-point rally set the tone heading into the U.S. open, which came in at 5322.75.

Early regular session trade turned volatile. A sharp decline brought ES down to 5309.75 at 9:39 AM, preceding the morning low of 5285.50 at 10:39 AM, marking a 54.75-point drop (-1.03%) from the earlier high.

A rebound ensued, with ES climbing to 5335.75 at 11:18 AM before another pullback found support at 5309.00 by 12:03 PM. The afternoon rally lifted ES to a high of 5350.00 at 12:33 PM, with follow-through into a slightly higher high of 5351.50 at 12:54 PM.

The market softened into the early afternoon, pulling back to 5324.50 at 1:25 PM and making a deeper low of 5323.25 at 1:27 PM. Buyers returned with strength, taking ES to a session high of 5359.50 at 2:24 PM. This high capped a 36.25-point advance (+0.68%) from the prior pullback.

However, selling reemerged into the final hour. ES declined to 5313.50 by 3:21 PM, bounced modestly to 5332.75 at 3:42 PM, then dropped again to 5304.25 at 4:15 PM during the late regular session, just ahead of the close.

The official cash close came in at 5310.75, down 12.00 points (-0.23%) from the session open, but up 5.50 points (+0.10%) from the previous day’s cash close. The Cleanup session saw modest recovery, ending at 5326.50.

Thursday’s tone was two-sided, but leaned slightly bearish during the U.S. cash session. The Globex market led the upside, gaining 17.50 points from the prior close. In contrast, the regular session gave up early strength and closed red, reflecting some hesitance to hold risk into the weekend.

Volume was healthy, with total contract turnover reaching 1,297,520. The regular session contributed the lion’s share at 975,612 contracts, confirming active participation despite the approaching holiday break.

The Market-on-Close (MOC) imbalance was notably bearish, peaking at a hefty -$1.889B to sell at 3:50 PM ET. The symbol imbalance registered at -73.4%, signaling broad-based liquidation. This sharp imbalance contributed to the final push lower into the closing bell, with ES falling from the 3:42 PM high of 5332.75 down to 5304.25 before stabilizing during Cleanup.

How to read the MIM

Technical Edge

Fair Values for April 21, 2025:

Daily Breadth Data 📊

Weekly Breadth Data 📈

Room Summaries:

Polaris Trading Group Summary Friday, April 18, 2025

Thursday was a textbook Cycle Day 2 (CD2) featuring a classic Delta-shaped profile marked by consolidation and balance. The session primarily served as a Capital Preservation Day, where traders were reminded to “know when to hold ’em, fold ’em, walk away, or run” — a theme perfectly in tune with the slow, choppy pace of the market.

Market Overview:

Trade Action & Lessons:

Midday Vibe:

David shared serene beachside images during the lunch lull, creating a calm, reflective pause in the room. The sun, saltwater, and laughter over mountain lions brought a human, grounding touch to an otherwise slow-paced session.

Key Takeaways:

Closing:

David wrapped with well wishes for Easter and a reminder that not every day needs to be a trading day — sometimes protecting capital is the biggest win.

Summary: A measured, disciplined day where traders avoided traps, respected the structure, and walked away with lessons reinforced on patience, pivots, and preservation.

DTG Room Preview – Monday, April 21, 2025

Calendars

Economic

Important events for the rest of the week:

S&P 500 Earnings

Recent

Full MTS Calendars

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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!