Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:  8:15ET ADP Weekly Employment Change; 8:30ET US March PPI; 9:45ET: 10:15ET: & 12:10ET: Fed’s
Goolsbee speaks; 1:00ET: Fed’s Paulson, Collins, Barkin and Barr speak

PPI Final Demand YoY: 4.0% vs. 4.6% est. PPI Final Demand MoM: 0.5% vs. 1.1% est.

Highlights and News:  

• US-Iran
  negotiating teams could return to Pakistan this week for talks – RTRS
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said Tehran was prepared to continue peace talks
  
• Israel’s Foreign Minister says seeking “peace and normalization” with Lebanon, ahead of talks today
• IRAN MULLS PAUSING ITS HORMUZ SHIPPING TO AVOID DERAILING TALKS
• IPO MARKET SLOWING DOWN AMID IRAN WAR, WELLS FARGO CFO SAYS
• Amazon is said to be nearing a deal to buy Globalstar to build its own satellite network
  
• Rock & Roll Hall of Fame’s Class of 2026 includes Phil Collins, Billy Idol, Iron Maiden, Oasis and Sade

Global stocks climbed while oil prices fell as the United States and Iran signaled openness to a fresh round of peace negotiations, fueling investor optimism for
a more durable ceasefire across the Middle East. The market reaction reflects a broader sentiment: while the current ceasefire remains fragile, renewed diplomacy raises the prospect of avoiding a prolonged conflict that could escalate into a wider energy crisis
or inflationary shock. Investors appear to be pricing in the possibility of normalized trade routes and reduced risk premiums, even as talks continue amid significant sticking points. Reuters reported that negotiating teams could return to Pakistan this week. 
The objective is to hold fresh discussions before the truce announced April 7 expires next week. Trump said, “We’ve been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal.” Meanwhile, Talks between Israel and Lebanon
are due to take place in Washington today.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures nudged higher, extending yesterday’s gains after Trump signaled willingness to resume talks with Iran. S&P 500 futures earlier in the overnight session erased its war-driven
losses. For many, resilient earnings are the main reason for optimism — a stance that will be tested as the season gets underway. “There is good value in the US equity market now,” says Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer. Citigroup’s Beata Manthey
upgraded US equities to overweight from neutral in the firm’s global asset allocation, citing a “quality and defensive tilt” amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Strategists at BlackRock had returned to an overweight view on US stocks on Monday. Morgan Stanley
strategists continue to favor cyclicals — including financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary — citing strong earnings and compressed valuations. Investors should be ready to add risk, the MS analysts said. JPMorgan shares fell over 3% premarket
Tuesday after the largest US bank cut its net interest income forecast for the full year. A Fed roundtable, PPI data, and an IMF-World Bank gathering will make for a busy day of headlines today.    

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell 2000 +0.6%, DJI ~flat

In pre-market trading, American Airlines (AAL) rises 7% as United Airlines Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby has floated a possible combination with the carrier.
Shares of United Airlines (UAL) are up 2.7%. Bloom Energy (BE) rises 14% after the fuel cell company expanded its partnership with Oracle to support rapid buildout of AI and cloud computing infrastructure. CarMax (KMX) falls 4% after the company said profit
per vehicle sold to retail customers will continue to decline and expanded its cost-cutting target. Credo Technology (CRDO) is up 19% after the communications equipment company agreed to acquire DustPhotonics, a Silicon Photonics PIC technology developer.
Dell Technologies (DELL) and HP Inc. (HPQ) both slip 2% after Nvidia Corp. denied a report that it was seeking an acquisition of a large company that would “reshape the PC landscape.” Globalstar Inc. (GSAT) gains 8% as Amazon.com Inc. is in advanced talks
to acquire the satellite operator in a deal that would boost the tech giant’s efforts to build its own satellite operation. Lucid (LCID) rises 6% after the electric vehicle company announced a $200 million investment from Uber and a $550 million commitment
from a PIF affiliate in convertible preferred shares. Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) soars 43% after the drugmaker said the US FDA approved Filspari (sparsentan) to help treat a rare kidney disease. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) slips 2% after the bank missed analysts’
estimates for its primary income streams in the first quarter.

European gauges are holding gains on hopes the US and Iran will resume talks to end the war. Technology outperforms while personal goods lag. First-quarter earnings
in Europe are shaping up as a test for stocks, with earnings likely to fall short of lofty expectations. Investors are turning gloomier on Europe, according to BofA’s latest fund manager survey. Barclays strategists favor EU value stocks amid inflation risks.
Imperial Brands Plc., the maker of Gauloises and Fortuna cigarettes slumped as much as 8.4% after saying it expects to lose share in its five top markets. Luxury bellwether LVMH dropped 3% after the conflict dented sales in its fashion and leather goods unit.
Sika shares advanced as much as 9.5% after the Swiss specialty chemicals firm reported a solid first-quarter print. Givaudan shares rose as much as 6.1% after the company reported sales for the first quarter that showed stronger growth in fragrances than analysts
were expecting. Stoxx 600 +0.9%, DAX +1.1%, CAC +0.8%, FTSE 100 +0.1%. Tech +2.1%, Autos +1.9%, Construction +1.7%. Personal Goods -0.5%.

Shares in Asia advanced, led by artificial intelligence-related stocks, as investor sentiment improved on signs that the United States and Iran may revive peace negotiations.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.7% with TSMC and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts. Asian memory stocks climbed after US peer Sandisk rallied on the news of its inclusion in Nasdaq 100 Index.  Korea’s Kospi led gains across the region, while Taiwan’s
benchmark climbed to a record high. India and Thailand were closed for a holiday. In China, official data released on Tuesday showed that export growth slowed noticeably in March, as the strong demand fueled by the global artificial intelligence boom began
to be offset by the disruptive effects of the war. The slowdown highlights how geopolitical tensions are starting to weigh on China’s trade performance, interrupting what had been a robust export surge driven by AI. Kospi +2.7%, Nikkei 225 +2.4%, Taiwan +2.4%,
Indonesia +2.3%, CSI 300 +1.2%, Vietnam +0.9%, Hang Seng Index +0.8%, ASX 200 +0.5%, Singapore -0.5%. Philippines -0.7%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are little changed with US yields within 1bp of Monday’s closing levels; 10-year yield ~4.295% and the curve roughly flat. Focal points of US session include
March PPI data and several Fed speakers. three-part offering Monday, with other issuers opting to step down. Dealers forecast around $40 billion of high-grade bond sales this week, led by US money-center banks.

METALS: 

Gold is higher after a two-day decline, as renewed optimism for a negotiated end to the US-Iran war eased concerns around inflation. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian
said Tehran was prepared to continue peace talks within the framework of international law. Spot gold +0.5%, Silver +2.3%, Copper futures +0.6%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil fell on signs Washington and Tehran may revive peace talks following the start of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA warned that the ongoing conflict
is on track to eliminate this year’s global oil demand growth entirely — resulting in the first annual contraction in worldwide oil consumption since the pandemic. Brent crude fell as much as 2.9% before paring losses to around $98 a barrel, while WTI trades
below $97. A ship under US sanctions and linked to China is making its way through Hormuz, testing the blockade. Three Iran-linked tankers entered the Gulf and were allowed to pass since their destinations were not Iranian ports, shipping data showed. WTI
-2.5%, Brent -1.2%, US Nat Gas -1.6%, RBOB -1.2%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the safe-haven dollar slides as investors positioned for a possible diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The US and Iran are considering
another round of direct negotiations before the truce expires next week. Sterling climbed to a more than six-week high, putting the pound above its pre-war level. Chances of a rate hike this month by
⁠the Bank of Japan, once seen as a strong possibility, have receded as the war keeps
markets volatile and muddies the economic outlook, sources told Reuters. US$ Index -0.3%, GBPUSD +0.5%, EURUSD +0.3%, USDJPY -0.4%, AUDUSD +0.4%, NZDUSD +0.6%, USDCHF -0.45%, USDCAD -0.3%, USDSEK -0.3%, USDNOK -0.4%.

Spot Bitcoin +1.5%, Spot Ethereum +5.2%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Biogen (BIIB) Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $214
• Birkenstock (BIRK) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $52
• Crocs (CROX) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $135
• Eastman Chemical (EMN) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $80
• Ford (F) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $15
• Standard Chartered (STAN LN) ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas
• Tesla (TSLA) Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $352
• VF Corp (VFC) Raised to Buy at Seaport Global Securities; PT $24
• Viking Holdings (VIK) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $72
• Downgrades
• Asana (ASAN) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $7
• Barclays (BARC LN) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $26
• ERO Copper (ERO CN) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT C$42.77
• GE Vernova (GEV) Cut to Sell at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $839
• GFL Environmental (GFL CN) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT C$57.89
• GrafTech (EAF) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
• HSBC (HSBA LN) ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $97
• Innoviz Technologies (INVZ) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 75 cents
• Monday.com (MNDY) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $85
• NOV Inc. (NOV) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $21
• Omega Healthcare (OHI) Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $46
• Qiagen (QGEN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $44
• Revvity (RVTY) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $95
• Secure Waste (SES CN) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$24.75
• Cut to Sector Perform at Peters & Co; PT C$23
• Cut to Hold at Stifel Canada; PT C$23
• Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $87
• Trican Well Service (TCW CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$7.50
• Initiations
• Adagio Medical (ADGM) Rated New Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $3
• Adtran Holdings (ADTN) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI; PT $18
• BellRing Brands (BRBR) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• CAMP4 Therapeutics (CAMP) Rated New Buy at Rodman & Renshaw; PT $7
• Campbell’s (CPB) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Carrier Global (CARR) Rated New Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $62
• Charles River (CRL) Reinstated Outperform at RBC; PT $215
• Conagra (CAG) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Equillium (EQ) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $6
• FormFactor (FORM) Rated New Buy at GF Securities; PT $191
• General Mills (GIS) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Guardian Metal Resources (GMET LN) ADRs Rated New Buy at DA Davidson
• Hershey (HSY) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Infleqtion (INFQ) Rated New Buy at Citi; PT $20
• J M Smucker (SJM) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $120
• Janus Living (JAN) Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $27
• Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $28
• Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $27
• Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT $26
• Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $28
• Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT $27
• Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $26
• Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $28
• Johnson Controls (JCI) Rated New Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT $120
• Kraft Heinz (KHC) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Lennox (LII) Rated New Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $535
• McCormick (MKC) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Merlin (MRLN) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $15
• Mondelez (MDLZ) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $70
• Natera (NTRA) Rated New Outperform at William Blair
• Netskope (NTSK) Rated New Buy at Rosenblatt Securities Inc
• Nubank (NU) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $18
• Omada Health (OMDA) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens; PT $18
• Post Holdings (POST) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Relay Therapeutics (RLAY) Rated New Hold at Jones; PT $18
• Sandisk (SNDK) Rated New Outperform at Evercore ISI
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Spyre Therapeutics Inc (SYRE) Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
• Tectonic Therapeutic (TECX) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $75
• Trane Technologies (TT) Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $550
• Utz Brands (UTZ) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $10
• Versigent (VGNT) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen; PT $47
• Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $43
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT) Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $345

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke