Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET New York Fed Services Business Activity, Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business
Outlook; 8:35ET Fed’s Williams speaks; 9:15 Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilization; 10:35ET Fed’s Miran speaks

Highlights and News:  

• Iran lawmaker: Iran has no hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations with the US
  
• Lebanon’s President Aoun expected to hold phone call with Israeli PM Netanyahu this afternoon
• Hegseth confirms that Iran is “digging out” their “remaining launchers and missiles”
• China’s GDP growth rebounded to 5% in the first quarter
  
• ORACLE & AWS COLLABORATE TO EXPAND MULTICLOUD NETWORKING
  
• Dairy Queen Seeks to Add AI Chatbots to US Drive-Throughs, Company Says – WSJ
• NYC doormen authorized a strike as soon as April 21
  

Global stocks climbed for a 10th straight day, with many stock exchanges hitting fresh record highs, as equity markets completed a remarkable six-week round trip
from the heavy selloffs triggered by the US and Israeli strikes on Iran. The benchmark for emerging-market stocks rose for a third consecutive day, nearly erasing the losses sparked by the Middle East conflict, as investors scooped up technology shares tied
to artificial intelligence. Pakistan is stepping up efforts to ensure the US and Iran prolong a ceasefire that’s set to end next week. Yet an Iranian official said big splits remained, including over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. A senior Iranian official told
Reuters that “significant gaps remain on the nuclear issue, the question of the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium and the duration of restrictions to be imposed on Iran’s nuclear program remain unresolved for now.” At least two US-sanctioned, Iran-linked vessels
transited Hormuz into the Persian Gulf today, possibly using a new route from the UAE.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures inch higher on bets the US and Iran may extend their truce, with Trump posting on social media that Israel and Lebanon will also hold talks today. TSMC lifted tech shares
after the chipmaker raised its 2026 sales growth outlook to more than 30%, underscoring resilient AI-driven demand. Allbirds shares tumble as much as 37% in premarket trading as the newly-minted AI stock takes a breather after soaring more than 580% yesterday.
The maker of wool sneakers announced on Wednesday that it would pivot its business to AI computing infrastructure, just before it was set to close down. PepsiCo’s revenue and earnings beat expectations, as the company sees improvement in salty snacks. BNY
Mellon posted profit that beat as client activity fueled revenue gains during a busy quarter. Elon Musk’s team is seeking quotes from chip suppliers at “light speed” for his Terafab project, people familiar said. Companies approached include Applied Materials,
Tokyo Electron and Lam Research.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.01%, DJI +0.2%

In pre-market trading, Nuclear and uranium companies are set to extend this week’s rally after the White House released rules for establishing a National Initiative
for American Space Nuclear Power. Oklo (OKLO) +7%, NuScale Power (SMR) +10%. Allbirds (BIRD) tumbles 21% as the newly minted AI stock takes a breather after soaring more than 580% on Wednesday. Hims & Hers (HIMS) rises 9%, with shares on track to extend the
previous day’s 14% rally, after Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the FDA is seeking to remove 12 peptides from Category 2 restrictions. PepsiCo (PEP) gains 1% after quarterly revenue and earnings beat expectations. PPG Industries (PPG) rises 3%
after the supplier of paints and coatings posted preliminary first quarter earnings beat. QuidelOrtho Corp. (QDEL) sinks 17% after the health care services provider posted disappointing preliminary first-quarter revenue as US flu-like illness visits fell by
about 30% from the year-earlier period. Travelers (TRV) slips 1.4% after the insurance company posted first quarter results. U.S. Bancorp (USB) rises about 1% after first-quarter profit beat estimates. Voyager Technologies (VOYG) gains 6% after the defense
and space company signed an order with NASA for the seventh Private Astronaut Mission to the International Space Station.

NLR/SPY: Uranium + Nuclear ETF relative to the S&P500. Holding above the 200dma.

European gauges aren’t back to their pre-war highs, but they also move higher as investors focus on a flurry of earnings and grow optimistic of ceasefire extension
prospects. Technology, media and retail shares are leading gains, while banks and food & beverage lag. ECB policymakers are leaning toward keeping rates unchanged this month, postponing assessment of the war’s impact, sources said. The UK economy grew 0.5%
in February, beating estimates to post its strongest monthly reading since January 2024, though the data predates the Iran war. Among individual names, Entain shares rise more than 7.6% after its first-quarter online gaming revenue grew faster than expected.
Tesco shares rise as much as 3.5% after the UK’s largest supermarket chain delivered annual earnings ahead of expectations. Barry Callebaut shares drop 18% after the Swiss chocolate maker reported first-half earnings that missed estimates and lowered guidance.
Kering shares fall as much as 4.6% after the French owner of Gucci outlined financial ambitions at its capital markets day that analysts deemed cautious. Stoxx 600 +0.4%, DAX +0.6%, CAC +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.7%.  Media +1.7%, Retail +1.7%, Technology +1.6%. Food
& Bev -0.25%, Banks -0.25%.

Shares in Asia were mostly higher on optimism over corporate earnings and a potential US-Iran ceasefire extension. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.2%, with technology
stocks leading gains. South Korea’s Kospi, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index rose more than 2% each, while Taiwan’s total market cap climbed above $4.1 trillion to overtake the UK. Chinese blue-chip stocks rose more than 1% after data
showed the economy expanded 5% in the first quarter, beating forecasts as strong exports helped offset still-weak domestic consumption. EV battery maker CATL climbed more than 10% in Hong Kong after better-than-expected earnings. Meanwhile, chip giant TSMC
raised its revenue outlook for 2026, an upbeat forecast that underscores the resilience of AI chip demand. Hang Seng Tech +3.7%, Nikkei 225 +2.4%, Kospi +2.2%, Hang Seng Index +1.7%, Taiwan +1.1%, CSI 300 +1.1%, Vietnam +1.1%. Indonesia -0.05%, Sensex -0.2%,
ASX 200 -0.25%, Thailand -1.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries just slightly richer across the curve with gains led by the front-end and belly, supported by a wider bull steepening move seen across European bonds.
US yields lower by about 1bp with 2s10s -0.5bps. Foreign holdings of Treasuries soared to a record $9.49 trillion in February. Canada led with a $50.5 billion increase, while Japan remained the largest holder. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of
deals. Six names priced $23.6 billion on Wednesday.

METALS: 

Gold gains as a push for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran war eased inflation concerns. Gold will find support from market volatility as long as President Trump
is in the White House, according to ACG Metals Ltd Chairman and CEO. Spot gold rose as much as 1% to nearly $4,839 an ounce, erasing most of a loss in the previous session. Spot gold +0.5%, Silver +0.7%, Copper futures -0.2%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices edge higher, reversing earlier declines as the market questioned whether peace talks between the US and Iran would achieve a deal. US and Iranian officials
are considering returning to Pakistan for further talks as early as this weekend. A source briefed by Tehran told Reuters that Iran could consider allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the ‌Strait
⁠of Hormuz in the event of a deal to prevent renewed conflict after a two-week ceasefire.
US CENTCOM says “zero ships” have broken through US naval blockade of Iran since Monday, 10 vessels turned back, including Iranian cargo ship. Meanwhile, Russia reports that an oil tanker in its waters was attacked, according to TASS. Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent said that Washington will not be renewing sanction waivers for some Iranian and Russian oil. US energy officials will urge top oil and gas CEOs to boost drilling in a call with industry leaders today, Politico reported. WTI +0.6%, Brent +0.8%, US Nat
Gas -0.1%, RBOB +0.3%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edged higher but stayed near its lowest level since early March, as markets awaited further developments on a possible US-Iran peace
deal with cautious optimism. EURUSD is lower after eight-straight days of gains, finding some resistance at the .618 Fibonacci retracement from the January high. Sterling eases, little support from data that showed UK growth beat expectations in February.
Japanese yen was little changed after the country’s finance minister said Japan and the
⁠US agreed to intensify communication on exchange rates after her meeting with Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday. The offshore yuan hovered near a three-year low. Data showed China’s economy grew 5.0% in the first quarter, beating analysts’ expectations and gaining momentum from strong exports and policy support. US$ Index +0.2%,
GBPUSD -0.15%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.01%, AUDUSD -0.05%, NZDUSD -0.4%, USDCHF +0.25%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK +0.3%, USDNOK +0.05%.  

Spot Bitcoin %, Spot Ethereum %. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Allogene (ALLO) Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan
• Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $21
• Bread Financial Holdings (BFH) US Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $91
• Descartes Systems (DSG CN) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• DraftKings (DKNG) Raised to Outperform at Davy; PT $28.50
• Equitable Holdings (EQH) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $58
• Flywire (FLYW) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $17
• Hamilton Lane (HLNE) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $166
• NextNav (NN) Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer
• Okta (OKTA) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $85
• OMA (OMAB MM) ADRs Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $134
• Quebecor (QBR/B CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$63
• Strathcona Resources (SCR CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$47
• Downgrades
• Ambev (ABEV3 BZ) ADRs Cut to Sell at UBS; PT $2.65
• Canfor (CFP CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$15
• Coca-Cola Andina (ANDINAA CI) ADRs Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT $33
• Federated Hermes (FHI) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $56
• Flutter (FLUT) Cut to Sell at Citi; PT $92.34
• Gitlab (GTLB) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $24
• PayPal (PYPL) Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities
• Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Cut to Neutral at Seaport Global Securities
• SPS Commerce (SPSC) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $60
• Two Harbors (TWO) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $11
• Initiations
• Aclaris (ACRS) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $10
• Autoliv (ALV) Reinstated Buy at BofA
• Capgemini (CAP FP) ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $35
• CoreWeave (CRWV) Rated New Outperform at Wolfe; PT $150
• Dick’s Sporting (DKS) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $300
• Diversified Energy (DEC) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $24
• Eastern Bankshares (EBC) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $24
• Equifax (EFX) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $222
• Fair Isaac (FICO) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities; PT $1,416
• Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL AR) ADRs Reinstated Hold at TPCG Valores
• Henry Schein (HSIC) Rated New Neutral at BTIG
• Independent Bank Corp (INDB) Rated New Overweight at Stephens; PT $88
• Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $170
• Kalaris Therapeutics Inc (KLRS) Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
• MDU Resources (MDU) Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $22
• MindWalk Holdings Corp (HYFT) Rated New Buy at Jones; PT $5
• New Era Energy & Digital (NUAI) Rated New Outperform at Northland
• Rated New Buy at Texas Capital
• Pfizer (PFE) Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $33
• Pvt Bancorp America (PBAM) Rated New Buy at Janney Montgomery; PT $80
• TransUnion (TRU) Rated New Neutral at Mizuho Securities; PT $80
• Veon (VEON) ADRs Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $74.16
• Whitehawk Therapeutics I (WHWK) Rated New Market Outperform at Citizens

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke