Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   100ET $13 billion 20-year bond reopening

Highlights and News:  

• Trump extends Iran ceasefire as Russia eyes Northern Sea Route cooperation –
  
  TASS
• Ships Come Under Gunfire Near Strait of Hormuz, UK Navy Says
  
• Two violating ships seized by the IRGC Navy and directed to the coast of Iran – Fars
• Tehran received “some sign” the US may ease the blockade, raising hopes of peace talks – Tasnim
  
• Ukraine says it asked Turkey to help seek Zelenskiy-Putin talks
• Germany halves 2026 growth forecast as Iran war drives up energy prices
  

Global stocks are mixed after President Trump indefinitely extended a ceasefire with Iran to allow more time for negotiations, despite uncertainty over Tehran’s response.
Trump announced that the pause would remain in place until Tehran presents its proposals and negotiations are brought to a conclusion. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz or restart peace talks until the US naval operation ends. Trump blamed
divisions among the Islamic Republic’s leaders for the need to extend the truce. Iran seized two ships that “intended to secretly exit the Strait of Hormuz,” state TV reported.  Earlier, the UK Navy said three ships were fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz,
causing “heavy damage” to one container ship. Elsewhere, Ukraine has asked Turkey to help arrange a summit meeting between President Zelenskiy and Russia’s Putin to end the war.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures rose after President Trump extends Iran ceasefire until talks conclude, as was predicted by Iranian press reports on Monday. A new report from Press TV today claims
the US military risks running out of ammunition if a major new conflict erupts in the coming years. Earnings are the big focus right now, with companies including AT&T, Boeing, IBM, NOW, TXN and Tesla reporting today. In tech, the SOX Index is on a record-tying
winning streak. Memory chipmakers are seeing record profits from booming demand, yet their valuations remain well below those of leading AI chip stocks. Boeing reported lower-than-expected cash outflow as it delivered the most aircraft in the first quarter
since 2019. AT&T’s revenue and profit beat, buoyed by its internet and phone subscribers. Tesla is expected to post blowout earnings today, but Wall Street is more interested in whether its AI and robotics ambitions justify its valuation.    

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Russell 2000 +0.9%, DJI +0.8%

In pre-market trading, Adobe Inc. (ADBE) rises 2% after saying it will buy back as much as $25 billion of its stock. Amneal Pharmaceuticals (AMRX) gains 2% after boosting
its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the full year. Boeing (BA) climbs 4% after reporting lower-than-expected cash outflow as it delivered the most aircraft in the first quarter since 2019. Capital One (COF) slips 1% after the credit-card reported
earnings for the first quarter that missed. GE Vernova (GEV) gains 7% after the power equipment company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat estimates. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) rises 2% after the medical equipment firm boosted its full-year forecast.
Sonoco Products (SON) falls 6% after the containers and packaging company forecast adjusted earnings per share for the full year to be at the low end of its previously stated guidance. Twilio Inc. (TWLO) rises 6% after BofA upgraded the software company by
two notches, to buy from underperform. United Airlines (UAL) gains 2%, with travel stocks broadly higher, after President Trump said he’s extending the ceasefire. Analysts largely dismissed the carrier’s reduced adjusted earnings-per-share forecast for the
full year, noting that the updated guidance is not too far off from the consensus estimate. Vertiv Holdings (VRT) falls 4% after the power equipment company’s report was marred by what Vital Knowledge called “areas of disappointment,” which investors in the
momentum name tend to fixate on. Earnings after the close include TSLA, LRCX, IBM, TXN, NOW, CSX

European gauges reversed early gains to trade cautiously mixed after reports of ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertainty over the fragile US-Iran ceasefire.
Energy is the best-performing subsector, while travel and leisure shares lag as Evolution AB and FDJ United dropped after earnings. ASM International NV rose to a record after the semiconductor equipment maker reported first-quarter revenue that beat estimates. 
ABB shares gained as much as 6.2% to a record after the Swiss power technology company raised its revenue expectations for the year on strong orders.  Randstad shares rise as much as 7% after the recruitment company surprised the market by posting its first
quarterly positive organic revenue growth in three years. Bureau Veritas shares fall as much as 13% after weaker-than-expected 1Q performance and a cut to full-year organic growth guidance. Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX +0.05%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.05%. Energy .2%,
Utilities +1.2%, Basic Resources +1.1%, Technology +1.1%. Travel & Leisure -1.3%, Luxury -1.3%, Retail -1.1%. 

Shares in Asia were mixed. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5%, with most industry groups in the red. Alibaba and Tencent were among the biggest drags as Chinese
tech shares slumped. Hong Kong led losses around the region, while Taiwanese stocks climbed. A continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices high, increasing risks of higher logistic costs and inflation pressures for nations, particularly
in Asia. Shares of major Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba and JD.com, fell in Hong Kong amid concerns over near-term profitability, ongoing regulatory pressure, and a lack of clear catalysts to solidify their leadership in China’s AI race. Tencent and
Alibaba are in talks to invest in DeepSeek at valuation of over $20b, the Information reported.  Vietnam +1.3%, Taiwan +0.7%, CSI 300 +0.7%, Kospi +0.5%, Nikkei 225 +0.4%. Indonesia -0.2%, Singapore and Thailand -0.25%, Topix -0.7%, Sensex -0.9%, ASX 200 -1.2%,
Hang Seng Index -1.2%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are marginally richer across the curve, underpinned by oil prices only moderately higher on the day. Treasuries richer by broadly 1bp to 3bp across the
curve with belly leading gains on the day, steepening 5s30s spread by almost 1bp and unwinding a small portion of Tuesday’s aggressive flattening move. US 10-year yield trades around 4.27%, down roughly 2bp vs. Tuesday close. 2s10s -1.5bp. Treasury auctions
scheduled for the session include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals already. State Street’s $1.5b two-part offering headlined a $3.7b, four-issuer US investment-grade slate Tuesday. Issuers paid about 2bps
in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.7 times oversubscribed.

METALS: 

Gold regained some ground after a two-day decline, as Trump extended a ceasefire with Iran and allowed more time to arrange fresh peace talks. Spot gold rose as much
as 1.1% to above $4,770 an ounce, after falling more than 2% in the previous session. Trump said he would hold off on further strikes until Iran submits a new proposal “and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” Spot gold +0.7%, Silver +1.7%, Copper
futures +0.7%. 

ENERGY:   

Crude oil prices are moderately higher after Brent crude futures briefly topped $100 barrel earlier today as attempts to resolve the seven-week conflict between the
US and Iran struggled. The US-Israel alliance and Iran won’t immediately return to fighting, but the vital Strait of Hormuz shows no signs of reopening to oil and gas traffic in the near term. Tehran received “some sign” the US may ease the blockade, reopening
to prospect of peace talks, Tasnim reported. The US blockade may force Iran to cut output within weeks, JPMorgan said. Onshore storage capacity is already at 54%. The IRGC seized two vessels for “endangering maritime security,” and at least 3 ships were fired
upon in the Strait of Hormuz.  At least two fully loaded Iranian tankers slipped past the US blockade this week as part of a flotilla that has already moved around 9 million barrels of oil to market.  Ukraine is ready to resume oil flows through the Druzhba
pipeline, a step that’s expected to unblock crucial European Union aid to Kyiv. Russia’s seaborne oil exports have rebounded after weeks of decline thanks to recovering shipments in the Baltic. WTI +0.5%, Brent +0.7%, US Nat Gas +0.1%, RBOB ~flat.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar held steady near a one-week high as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict lingered despite President Trump’s indefinite extension
of the ceasefire with Iran. Most FX peers are trading in tight ranges. Sterling is little changed after data showed that British consumer price inflation rose to an annual rate of 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February, which showed the first impact on prices
from the war in the Middle East. US$ is slightly lower versus the yen after data earlier showed Japan’s exports rose for a seventh straight month, defying any major impact from the Gulf conflict. Most economists expect the BOJ to leave its policy rate unchanged
at 0.75% after its two-day meeting on April 28. Expectations for a near-term hike have faded as the US-Israeli war on Iran has driven up oil and gas prices, raising concerns about higher costs for resource-dependent Japan.  US$ Index +0.01%, GBPUSD -0.05%,
EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD -0.01%, NZDUSD +0.2%, USDCHF +0.15%, USDCAD +0.01%, USDSEK -0.02%, USDNOK -0.4%.

Spot Bitcoin %, Spot Ethereum %. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Airbnb (ABNB) Raised to Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $178
• Antero Midstream Corp (AM) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
• Biogen (BIIB) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $225
• BrightSpire Capital Inc (BRSP) Raised to Buy at BTIG; PT $7
• DT Midstream (DTM) Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $165
• Genmab (GMAB DC) ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $30.50
• Halliburton (HAL) Raised to Buy at Griffin Securities; PT $47
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $28
• Kforce (KFRC) Raised to Outperform at William Blair(Earlier)
• Li Auto (LI) ADRs Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas
• Qorvo (QRVO) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $100
• SBA Comms (SBAC) Raised to Buy at Truist Secs; PT $247
• Seagate (STX) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $625
• Skyworks (SWKS) Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $70
• Twilio (TWLO) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $190
• WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI) US Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $34
• Downgrades
• Abbott (ABT) Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $92
• Albemarle (ALB) Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $188
• Braskem (BRKM5 BZ) ADRs Cut to Underperform at Bradesco BBI; PT $1.50
• Calix (CALX) Cut to Market Perform at Northland; PT $52
• DHT Holdings (DHT) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $19
• Driven Brands (DRVN) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• Frontline PLC (FRO) Cut to Inline at Evercore ISI; PT $38
• Gitlab (GTLB) Cut to Neutral at BofA
• Hertz (HTZ) Cut to Sell at Northcoast; PT $5
• Home Bancorp (HBCP) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler
• Nordic American Tankers (NAT) Cut to Underperform at Evercore ISI
• Penguin Solutions (PENG) Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $27
• Prudential Financial (PRU) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $98
• Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $91
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $130
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) Cut to Neutral at BTIG
• Valneva (VLA FP) ADRs Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $4.90
• Xpeng (XPEV) ADRs Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas
• Zscaler (ZS) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $155
• Initiations
• Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $75
• Block (XYZ) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $74
• Canada Packers (CPKR CN) Rated New Buy at Ventum Financial; PT C$24
• Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $106
• Chime Financial (CHYM) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $30
• Extendicare (EXE CN) Rated New Buy at Desjardins; PT C$34.50
• First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX) Rated New Overweight at Barclays
• Fiserv (FISV) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $65
• Global Payments (GPN) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $76
• Global-e Online (GLBE) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $42
• High Liner Foods (HLF CN) Rated New Neutral at Ventum Financial
• Klarna (KLAR) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $16
• Maple Leaf Foods (MFI CN) Rated New Buy at Ventum Financial; PT C$37
• Mastercard (MA) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $605
• Micron (MU) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Nine Mile Metals (NINE CN) Rated New Buy at Fundamental Research
• PayPal (PYPL) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $52
• Portillo’s (PTLO) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $9
• Saputo (SAP CN) Rated New Buy at Ventum Financial; PT C$47
• SharonAI (SHAZ) Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $50
• Shift4 Payments (FOUR) Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $50
• Steel Dynamics (STLD) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Toast (TOST) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $35
• Twilio (TWLO) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• Viking Holdings (VIK) Rated New Positive at Susquehanna; PT $100
• Visa (V) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT $365
• Whirlpool (WHR) Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT $60
• WisdomTree (WT) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT $20

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke