Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Jobless Claims, Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index; 9:45ET S&P Global PMIs; 11:00ET
Kansas City Fed Mfg Activity; 1:00ET 5-Year TIPS Auction

Highlights and News:  

• US says it awaits Iran response on talks as Hormuz tension rises
• US intercepts Iran oil supertankers as Tehran keeps Hormuz shut
• Oil spikes briefly on false reports that there were explosions in Iran
  
• American Airlines Sees $4B Hit From Fuel Costs
• Nearly 53,000 home-purchase agreements fell through across the United States in March
• Trump’s acting attorney general reclassifies state-licensed medical marijuana as a less-dangerous drug
• Memory ETF (DRAM) Reaches $1 Billion in Just 10 Days
• Virginia judge blocked a voter-approved plan to redraw the state’s districts
  
• Medical data of half a million people from the UK’s health information database, Biobank, has been offered
  for sale on Chinese website Alibaba — Sky

Global stocks fell as peace talks in the Middle East remained in limbo, sending Brent crude briefly above $106 a barrel. The US and Iran are locked in a battle for
control of the Strait of Hormuz after failing to meet for a fresh round of peace talks, with both sides blocking the waterway to gain leverage during an extended ceasefire. The US military announced it had intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers attempting
to evade its naval blockade, as Washington continues to disrupt Iran’s shipping operations. Meanwhile, Tehran has escalated threats against commercial vessels, keeping Hormuz closed to almost all other international traffic. Just one bulk carrier was seen
moving through the waterway today, with none seen entering.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures are slipping with momentum stalling in some pockets of the market, after the S&P500 hit an all-time high and extended gains for April to more than 9%. Chipmakers extended
their gains in premarket trading, led by Texas Instruments, which jumped about 10% on surging demand from data center operators. Software names slid after ServiceNow reported that new deals have been delayed amid the ongoing war. Tesla fell roughly 3% after
raising its spending outlook for its artificial intelligence and robotics initiatives. Amex beat estimates as card spending rose. Earnings are still front and center, but price action is perhaps not as strong as it seems on the surface, with the equal-weight
S&P 500 (RSP) lagging behind. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed higher for a record 16th straight session Wednesday, posting a 39% gain over the run. Elsewhere, President Trump’s acting attorney general reclassifies state-licensed medical marijuana
as a less-dangerous drug in a major shift.  

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Russell 2000 ~flat, DJI -0.4%

In pre-market trading, Tesla (TSLA) falls 3% after the electric-vehicle maker boosted its capital expenditures to more than $25 billion for the year to support Elon
Musk’s ambition to transform his firm into an AI and robotics company. Microsoft (MSFT) -1.9%, Amazon (AMZN) -0.4%, Nvidia (NVDA) -0.5%, Meta Platforms (META) -1.5%, , Alphabet (GOOGL) -0.5%, Apple (AAPL) -0.1%. ASGN Inc. (ASGN) drops 31% after the IT services
company posted first-quarter results and guidance for the second quarter that fell short. CSX (CSX) rises 4% after the railroad reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat. Comcast (CMCSA) gains 6% after the cable TV provider reported
with a beat. Hasbro (HAS) rises 10% after the toymaker posted preliminary net revenue for the first quarter that beat. Honeywell (HON) falls 5% after the company reported first-quarter sales that missed analysts’ estimates, while agreeing to sell its Warehouse
and Workflow Solutions business for an undisclosed sum. IBM (IBM) falls 7% after the IT services company gave an outlook that analysts see as cautious. and earnings beat expectations due to strong sales of cold beverages and in international markets. ServiceNow
Inc. (NOW) plunges 13% after the provider of software for business tasks reported results that disappointed investors and said some sales deals have been delayed by the war in the Middle East. Southwest Air (LUV) slips 2% after the carrier’s adjusted quarterly
profit and revenue missed the average analyst expectations. STMicro ADRs (STM) are up 4% after the company gave a strong quarterly revenue forecast. Texas Instruments (TXN) jumps 9% after the chipmaker gave a surprisingly strong forecast, helped by booming
spending on data centers and industrial equipment. United Rentals (URI) gains 14% after the equipment rental company reported adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat estimates and boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. West Pharmaceutical
Services (WST) rises 18% after the health care supplies firm boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year.

European gauges are mixed, with Stoxx 600 falling for a fourth day in the longest losing streak since January. Business activity in the euro area shrank for the first
time since late 2024 due to a steep drop in the services sector as the Iran war weighs on consumers. The trend was similar in Germany, where industry held up while services plummeted. In France, manufacturing actually surpassed expectations with its strongest
performance since 2022 even as services sank. CAC 40 outperforms with beauty giant L’Oreal SA rising more than 8% in Paris after a strong sales beat. European earnings highlights: Nestlé SA sales rose more than expected; Roche Holding AG first-quarter sales
dropped; Heineken beer volumes fell more than expected; Nokia Oyj earnings beat; Safran SA expects to hit the top end of its guidance range for this year; Renault SA’s revenue rose and Sanofi profit rose on blockbuster drug. European car sales jumped the most
in nearly two years in March as strong growth for fully electric and hybrid models powers a recovery. Stoxx 600 -0.1%, DAX -0.1%, CAC +0.6%, FTSE 100 -0.5%. Banks -1.3%, Travel & Leisure -1.1%, Financial Services -1%. Telecom +2%, Food & Bev +1.3%, Personal
Goods +1.3%.

Shares in Asia declined as this week’s continued increase in oil prices and lack of clarity over US-Iran peace talks weighed on investor sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index fell 0.6%, after swinging between gains and losses during a volatile morning session. Chinese tech shares were among key drags, while an advance in energy stocks and heavyweight TSMC lent support to the regional benchmark. SK Hynix reported a five-fold
jump in quarterly profit that yet failed to impress investors questioning how long booming sales for AI memory chips can last. Hyundai Motor Co. first-quarter earnings missed estimates as South Korea’s largest automaker grappled with US tariffs. South Korea’s
GDP grew 1.7% in the first quarter, topping all estimates on an AI-fueled export boom. Chinese data center and computing infrastructure stocks rally after the government vows to accelerate energy efficiency and carbon reduction in digital infrastructure. The
Philippine central bank increased its key interest rate and signaled it was ready to deliver more hikes. Indonesia -2.2%, Thailand -1.2%, Singapore -1.2%, Sensex -1.1%, Hang Seng Index -0.95%, Topix -0.8%, ASX 200 -0.6%, Taiwan -0.4%, CSI 300 -0.3%, Philippines
-0.1%. Vietnam +0.7%, Kospi +0.9%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve, following wider losses seen across gilts. UK government bonds lead a broader selloff in global fixed income markets
as traders boosted bets on interest rate hike hikes by the Bank of England after stronger-than-expected PMI data. Treasury yields cheaper by 0.5bp to 1bp across the curve with spreads trading broadly within a basis point of Wednesday’s close. US 10-year yields
trade around 4.305%. Treasury auctions for the session include a $26 billion 5-year TIPS sale.

METALS: 

Gold is slightly lower but well off the overnight lows as the US extension of a ceasefire with Iran left global markets grappling with a blockade of the Strait of
Hormuz.  Bullion fell as much as 1% trading briefly below $4,700 an ounce before recouping losses to around $4,730. Spot gold -0.2%, Silver -1.6%, Copper futures -1%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices hold gains for a fourth straight day as stalled US-Iran peace talks and continued restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz fueled supply concerns. Shipping
through the waterway remained at a fraction of peace-time levels early on Thursday, deepening an oil-supply loss that already stretches to hundreds of millions of barrels. Brent trades near $102 a barrel after briefly jumping above $106 on false reports that
there were explosions in Iran. Both oil benchmarks climbed more than $3 per barrel on Wednesday, closing sharply higher after larger-than-expected draws in US gasoline and distillate inventories, combined with the continued lack of progress in peace talks.
Total US exports of crude oil and petroleum products rose by 137,000 barrels per day to a new all-time record of 12.88 million bpd. The surge was driven by strong buying from Asian and European nations seeking alternative supplies. South Africa is boosting
oil-product imports from the US to help replace lost supplies from the Middle East. Alberta is evaluating three options for a new 1-million-barrel-per-day oil pipeline through northern British Columbia, as Canada pushes to sharply increase energy exports to
Asia. WTI +0.1%, Brent +0.2%, US Nat Gas +0.1%, RBOB -0.6%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar rose slightly against most Group-of-10 peers as persistent Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices overshadowed a fragile ceasefire
between the US and Iran. The euro inches lower and heads for a third daily drop as PMI data out of the euro area failed to excite FX traders. Emerging-market currencies in Asia came under pressure on Thursday, with Indonesia’s rupiah and Thailand’s baht the
top losers. Their equity benchmarks too were among the worst performers in the region. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD +0.05%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY ~flat, AUDUSD -0.1%, NZDUSD -0.3%, USDCHF ~flat, USDCAD ~flat, USDSEK +0.05%, USDNOK +0.3%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.8%, Spot Ethereum -2.4%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• CRH (CRH) Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
• Lycos Energy Inc (LCX CN) Raised to Outperform at National Bank; PT C$3
• McDonald’s (MCD) Raised to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $306
• ON Semi (ON) Raised to Buy at B Riley; PT $115
• Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT C$60
• TC Energy (TRP CN) Raised to Outperform at CIBC; PT C$89
• Texas Instruments (TXN) Raised to Buy at BofA; PT $320
• Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $250
• Triumph Financial Inc (TFIN) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James
• W R Berkley Corp (WRB) Raised to Market Perform at BMO
• Downgrades
• ASGN (ASGN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO; PT $33
• Cut to Hold at Truist Secs
• CSX (CSX) Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $30
• Cut to Hold at Vertical Research; PT $44
• Investar Holding (ISTR) Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $31.50
• Lucky Strike (LUCK) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $6
• Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $355
• TE Connectivity (TEL) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $234
• Initiations
• Ascent Solar (ASTI) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $20
• Datadog (DDOG) Rated New Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $169.96
• Dynatrace (DT) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• Elastic (ESTC) Rated New Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $49.36
• Equillium (EQ) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $7
• First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX) Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan
• Grupo Financiero Galicia (GGAL AR) ADRs Rated New Hold at Banco Mariva
• Meridian Mining (MNO CN) Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT C$3
• Morgan Stanley (MS) Reinstated Buy at William O’Neil
• NuScale Power (SMR) Rated New Hold at HSBC; PT $13
• Oklo (OKLO) Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT $96
• Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Buy at DZ Bank; PT $175
• Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Reinstated Overweight at KeyBanc
• Xanadu Quantum Technologies (XNDU CN) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $45

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke