Our View

I would like to think that things will go without a shake, rattle, and roll, but that seems unlikely. Let’s face it: we live in an ever-changing world that is constantly evolving.

Today, there is only one economic report, no real earnings, and the week 4 Friday expiration. It’s 11:00 PM Thursday, and the ES is basically unchanged.

Will the PitBull rule about making a low on Thursday/Friday and holding into expiration play out? I still think the ES is in a big back-and-fill pattern, but if oil races higher, stocks will be under selling pressure.

Our Lean

We live in uncertain times characterized by an ongoing war, credit issues, spiraling government debt, and persistent inflation, alongside concerns regarding insider trading, job layoffs, and intense geopolitical competition. In this volatile environment, the market’s sharp “rips and dips” are likely to persist until a meaningful Middle East deal is reached.

For now, however, markets remain resilient because traders continue to maintain long positions, operating on the anticipation that a diplomatic resolution will eventually materialize. But what if a deal doesn’t happen? What if it drags on for 4 or 6 months? I don’t think the markets will hold up so well then.

If there is one thing that can drive the ES lower, it’s higher crude oil prices, which traded up to $98.39 yesterday, the highest level since 04/07/26 when it traded up to 101.17. The headline spike sell-off in the index markets has been good buy ops, and I suspect that will continue.

Our lean: I think it will be another day of two-way price action. I can’t rule out selling a big early rally and buying the drops, but I also think you have to be very patient. If you are up money this week, trade less and pick your spots better.

Below are the Claude AI ES levels. I know what format works the best, but I have yet to learn how to use the same codes. There is a new AI product I can combine with Claude that I believe will make it way better:

ES FUTURES — KEY LEVELS

(min gap 8 pts, floor 6980)
04/23/2026 | 5D | Last: 7143.50 (-27.75 / -0.39%)

Market State

Value Area: 7115.43 — 7150.47
(35.0 pts wide, 32% of range)

POC: 7136.92
IB: 7127.21 — 7198.79

Key Levels

Upside Levels

Downside Levels

Quick Reference

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Founder’s Note:

PM Note

The stock market pulled back on Thursday amid a spike in oil prices and rising geopolitical uncertainty. Brent crude traded above $100 at the time of writing.

SPX tested our Risk Pivot at 7050 and closed at 7,108 (-0.4%). The resistance at 7,150 and support at 7,050 we mentioned in the AM Note held well for the session. The 101-point intraday range exceeded the implied move of 68 points, suggesting implied volatility (IV) may be underpricing potential risk.

VIX closed at 19.3 (+2.1%), while VVIX closed at 98.6 (-0.2%).

S&P 500 HIRO (delta flow) reversed from +$1.5B to -$1.5B between ~11:30am–12:00pm ET, with SPX spot rolling over alongside the shift in flow. Around 1:00pm ET, HIRO delta accelerated lower again, reaching roughly -$2B. At ~1:45pm ET, 5k lots 0DTE put spreads opened near the 7035 strike, and HIRO flow began to reverse higher. This combination of 0DTE put spread activity and improving HIRO flow provided near-term support to the market.

Meanwhile, the TRACE Gamma Heatmap showed the 7,050–7,100 zone shift from positive gamma (purple) to negative gamma (red) following the 0DTE put spread activity. Negative gamma environments are associated with higher volatility, as dealer hedging tends to amplify price moves (selling into weakness and buying into strength), which helps explain the sharp V-shaped recovery between ~1:40–2:00pm ET.

On the day, S&P 500 HIRO net flows were roughly flat, reflecting ~$3B in call buying and ~$3B in put buying. At the index level, this suggests traders were active in a relatively low IV environment, without a strong directional bias.

However, S&P single-stock equities showed -$3.4B in HIRO delta for the day—the largest negative reading in the past 30 days. This was driven by ~$2.4B in call selling and ~$1B in put buying. As noted in yesterday’s Founder’s Note, many mega-cap tech names had elevated IV Rank and Risk Reversal Rank, making long calls less attractive if upside momentum stalled. The unwind of these positions led to negative delta exposure, implying dealers would be sellers to delta hedge their positions.

Fixed strike implied volatility moved higher across the surface today, indicating increasing risk premiums into next week, with major tech earnings and FOMC approaching.

In this morning’s FlowPatrol report, we highlighted the 50k-lot IGV August 75 puts. The ~$12M premium outlay and far OTM strike made this a notable trade. Today, IGV declined ~6% alongside weakness in software stocks. These puts increased from $2.40 to $3.60 (~+50%) in one session, with ~4 months remaining to expiration.

In single stocks, CAR declined 48% today and ~75% over the past two sessions ($850 to $230). The prior parabolic move higher, followed by a violent bust, highlights how negative gamma conditions can drive extreme moves in both directions. CAR implied volatility for tomorrow remains near 400%, indicating continued potential for large price swings, while 1-month realized volatility near 220 suggests current option premiums remain extremely expensive.

Notable flows of the day:

LRCX: 1350 lots LRCX 2027 Jan 300 calls traded with 5.6 million total premium paid.

WDC: 150 lots WDC Sep 420 calls and 150 lots WDC November 450 calls traded, with 2.6 million total premiums paid.

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ES Levels

The bull/bear line for the ES is at 7138.25. This remains the key pivot for today’s session. Holding above this level keeps buyers in control, while acceptance below it would shift momentum back to the downside.

ES is currently trading around 7170.50, holding above the bull/bear line and showing early strength during the Globex session. As long as price remains above 7138.25, dips can be viewed as potential buying opportunities targeting higher levels.

On the upside, resistance comes in at 7163.00, followed by 7182.25. A breakout above this area opens the door for a move toward 7194.00, which is the upper range target for today. If momentum builds above 7194.00, continuation toward 7246.25 becomes possible.

On the downside, initial support sits at 7143.50, followed by the bull/bear line at 7138.25. A break below this level would weaken the structure and target 7082.50, the lower range target. If sellers gain control below 7082.50, further downside extension toward 7030.25 is likely.

Overall, the market is showing bullish positioning above 7138.25. Continued acceptance above this level favors upside continuation, while losing it would signal a shift back into a more defensive, bearish posture.

NQ Levels

The bull/bear line for the NQ is at 26928.00. This is the key pivot for today. Holding above this level keeps the market in a bullish posture, while acceptance back below would shift momentum back to the downside.

Currently, NQ is trading around 27272.00, firmly above the bull/bear line and showing strength out of the overnight session. As long as price holds above 26928.00, dips are likely to be supported and buyers remain in control.

On the upside, the first resistance comes in at 27155.75, which has already been reclaimed, followed by 27187.25, our upper range target. A sustained move above this level opens the door for continuation toward 27431.25. If momentum builds, this becomes the key expansion zone for today.

On the downside, initial support sits at 27075.00, followed by the bull/bear line at 26928.00. If price breaks and holds below this pivot, expect a move toward 26837.50 and then 26668.75, which is the lower range target. A breakdown below this area could extend further toward 26681.75 and ultimately 26424.75.

Overall, the market remains bullish above 26928.00. Buyers are in control unless price loses that level, in which case a deeper retracement into the lower range becomes likely.

Polaris Trading Group Summary – For Thursday, April 23, 2026

The day started off as slow and sideways, with traders noting choppy conditions early. PTGDavid set the tone with an “early long lean”, framing the market around key levels and emphasizing structure between HVNs and “void” areas—helping traders prepare for rotational behavior rather than trend.

Morning – Patience & Learning Environment

Lesson: Skill-building and replay work are key to internalizing price action—not just watching live trades.

Midday – High-Probability D-Level Trades Shine

This was the highlight of the day.

Execution:

Lesson:
D-Level continues to be a “secret weapon”—when aligned with structure, it provides high-probability entries. Execution confidence improves when traders trust the level.

Afternoon – Headline-Driven Volatility

The market shifted dramatically due to geopolitical headlines:

David framed it perfectly:

Lesson:
In headline-driven environments:

Closing Session – Volatility Compression

Lesson:
After major liquidity events, markets often transition to balance and low volatility—forcing traders to shift from aggression to patience.

Overall Takeaways

Big Picture

This was a classic two-part day:

The traders who succeeded:

DTG Room Preview – Friday, April 24, 2026

Macro Focus:

Oil Market:

Equities (Overnight):

Big Tech / AI Theme:

Earnings Watch:

Economic Data:

Volatility / Positioning:

ES Technicals: