Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Personal Income, Personal Spending, Personal Consumption, PCE Price Index, Initial
Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index, GDP Price Index; 9:45ET MNI Chicago PMI; 10:00ET Leading Index

Highlights and News:  

• Trump will be briefed today about new military options for action in Iran – Axios
• Iran’s Supreme Leader: Iran will dismantle ‘US exploitation’ of Hormuz, New management of Hormuz ‘will bring calm and progress’ as well as ‘economic benefits’ to all Gulf nations
  
• Khamenei: Gulf Will Have A ‘Bright Future’ Without The Presence Of The US – State TV
• IRAN TO GUARD MISSILE, NUCLEAR TECH LIKE ITS BORDERS: KHAMENEI
• Iran’s Guards seize wartime power, weakening Supreme Leader’s role – Reuters
  
• IRGC’s Mousavi Says Tehran Will Respond With ‘Long and Painful Strikes’ Even if US Attack is limited
• BANK OF ENGLAND HOLDS KEY INTEREST RATE AT 3.75% IN 8-1 VOTE
• Japan Issues ‘Final’ Warning Before Intervention, Lifting Yen
• ZELENSKIY: UKRAINE IS ALWAYS OPEN TO CEASEFIRE PROPOSALS

Global stocks turned positive as oil prices reversed an earlier spike made after a report that the US is considering new military options for Iran. Trump is reviewing
options including “short and powerful” strikes, with a briefing from CENTCOM on potential targets. This comes as peace talks stall, and he prepares for a prolonged naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran’s supreme leader said in written statement that the region
will have a “bright future” without a US presence, adding ‘a new chapter for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz is taking shape.’  He added: “Iran, through the management of Hormuz, will ensure the security of the Gulf region and eliminate the possibility
of exploitation by enemies.” Khamenei is making Iran’s endgame clear: permanent Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz. The BOE kept rates on hold, as expected, but several policymakers said they may consider future hikes if energy prices do not quickly
come down.

EQUITIES: Earnings after the bell: AAPL, AMGN, SNDK, WDC, SYK, MPWR, RBLX

US equity futures steadied as investors digested earnings from four Magnificent Seven companies. Google impressed with strong cloud growth, reporting $20 billion in revenue last quarter
that beat estimates and justified its heavy AI spending. Amazon’s cloud revenue rose 28%, drawing a positive reaction. Microsoft slightly disappointed with a forecast of only modest acceleration in Azure growth. Meta was the clear underperformer, with shares
falling after raising full-year capex guidance to as much as $145 billion. Equity markets turned higher as global benchmark Brent crude oil reversed an intraday jump to above $126 a barrel. OpenAI has met a key milestone for securing AI capacity in the US
several years ahead of schedule, boosting the startup’s ambitious plans for data center expansion. Of the 247 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far this earnings season, 80% have beaten analysts’ forecasts, while 12% have missed. Apple is expected to
report 15% quarterly revenue growth after the market close. Investors will watch how it’s handling memory shortages and its upcoming leadership transition.  

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +0.65%, Russell 2000 +0.05%, DJI +0.6%

In pre-market trading, Alphabet (GOOGL) jumps 7% after reporting high demand for its cloud and artificial intelligence offerings, giving investors confidence that its
unprecedented investments in AI infrastructure will pay off. Amazon.com (AMZN) climbs 3% after the e-commerce and cloud-computing company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations on key metrics. Microsoft (MSFT) slips about 2% after the software
company reported third-quarter results. Some analysts said the pace of growth in its Azure cloud-computing business may have underwhelmed. Blue Owl Capital (OWL) gains 4% as fee-related earnings and assets increased as the alternative investment firm leaned
on other parts of its business amid souring sentiment toward private credit. Carvana (CVNA) rises 11% after the company reported revenue for the first quarter that beat. Caterpillar (CAT) climbs 5% after posting first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street
expectations as surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centers boosted sales of the company’s power-generation equipment. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) gains 4% after eeking out higher sales last quarter. Eli Lilly (LLY) rises 7%
after raising its full-year sales outlook on the strength of its weight-loss drugs and high hopes for its new obesity pill. Ford (F) falls 4% after warning that an unexpected rise in commodity costs will weigh on earnings. FormFactor (FORM) rises 10% after
the semiconductor manufacturing company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations. KLA Corp. (KLAC) falls 4% after analysts note the tepid growth rate at the semiconductor capital equipment company when compared to peers. Merck (MRK) gains 3% after
the drugmaker reported sales for the first quarter that topped Wall Street’s expectations. Procept Biorobotics (PRCT) gains 15% after the medical and surgical equipment manufacturer reported revenue for the first quarter that surpassed expectations. Stellantis
(STLA) is down 5% after the carmaker posted first-quarter results that included disappointing numbers from North America. Qualcomm (QCOM) jumps 11% after the company posted mixed results, but said that it was “excited” by its entry into data centers, where
a “leading hyperscaler custom silicon engagement is on track for initial shipments later this calendar year.” Wayfair (W) tumbles 8% after the ecommerce firm reported a miss.

European gauges lift from early losses as oil prices reversed sharp gains to trade lower. BNP Paribas fell after the lender reported higher credit provisions than expected.
Credit Agricole and Societe Generale also dropped after results. Arcadis shares gain as much as 14% after the Dutch engineering services firm’s first-quarter results impressed analysts. United Utilities, the water utility company, rises more than 12% to a
record high following an £800m equity raise announcement. Magnum Ice Cream shares rise as much as 13% after the former Unilever unit reported strong first-quarter volumes.  Stellantis shares fall as much as 10% after the carmaker posted first-quarter results.
Eurozone inflation rose to 3.0% in April from 2.6%, moving further above the ECB’s 2% target and adding pressure for rate hikes. However, subdued economic growth and cooling core inflation (down to 2.2% from 2.3%) are reducing the urgency.  Stoxx 600 +0.9%,
DAX +0.9%, CAC +0.1%, FTSE 100 +1.6%. Defense +2.6%, Healthcare +1.8%, Industrials +1.6%, Basic Resources +1.5%. Media -1.8%, Banks -0.9%.

Shares in Asia fell as Brent crude surged to a four-year high, fueling inflation concerns and dragging currencies lower across the region’s emerging economies. The
MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.1%, with all sectors in the red except energy. Benchmarks in Indonesia, South Korea and the Philippines were among the top losers. Kospi halts a three-day rally even as Samsung’s record profit beats expectations. Samsung Electronics’
chip arm beat expectations with a 48-fold jump in profit.  Chinese chip stocks rallied as positive 1Q earnings from companies such as Cambricon boost market sentiment. China’s April manufacturing PMI came in at a slightly better-than-expected 50.3. Indonesia
-2%, Kospi -1.4%, Hang Seng Index -1.3%, Philippines -1.3%, Topix -1.2%, Taiwan -1%, Sensex -0.7%, ASX 200 -0.2%, CSI 300 -0.05%. Thailand +0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries hold front-end-led gains, partially unwinding Wednesday’s oil-driven selloff. US front-end yields are more than 5bp lower on the day, steepening 2s10s
and 5s30s spreads by 2bp-3bp. 10-year, lower by about 3bp around 4.40%. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of deals; however dealers anticipate subdued activity for the rest of the week.

METALS: 

Gold prices jumped from one-month low as the US dollar weakened, with analysts citing increased safe-haven demand amid fears of further escalation in the Iran conflict.
Spot gold rose above $4,630 an ounce as traders weighed an Axios report that President Trump is set to receive a briefing today on new military options for action in Iran. Spot gold +1.8%, Silver +3.2%, Copper futures +0.9%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil prices reverse an earlier spike which took them to a wartime high on reports that the Trump administration is preparing for an extended Hormuz blockade and is
considering new military options against Iran. Axios, citing unnamed sources, reported late Wednesday that President Trump is set to receive a briefing today about plans for potential military strikes on Iran, with the goal of forcing Tehran back to nuclear
negotiations. Prices later dropped without any obvious catalyst. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Iran will guard its nuclear and missile capacities like its borders and vowed to secure the Persian Gulf.  WTI -2%, Brent -1.5%, US Nat Gas -1.6%, RBOB -1.1%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar fell as oil prices reversed gains, while the yen jumped after Japanese Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama said the time to take
bold action in foreign exchange is nearing. Japan’s top currency officials issued a “final” warning to speculators after the yen slipped to its weakest level since 2024. “Let me say this as my final advisory if you want to escape,” FX Chief Atsushi Mimura
said. Mimura said he was in contact with his US counterpart and hinting at a green light from Washington to take action if needed. Euro edges higher after the ECB kept rates unchanged, as expected. Sterling is modestly higher as BoE kept rates on hold, but
some policy makers said they may consider future hikes. US$ Index -0.5%, GBPUSD +0.25%, EURUSD +0.25%, USDJPY +2.3%, AUDUSD +0.45%, NZDUSD +0.6%, USDCHF -0.9%, USDCAD -0.1%, USDSEK -0.6%, USDNOK -0.2%.

Spot Bitcoin +0.9%, Spot Ethereum +1.2%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• AbbVie (ABBV) Raised to Buy at BofA
• Acadia Realty (AKR) Raised to Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; PT $24
• Blackbaud (BLKB) Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $50
• Costamare (CMRE) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $21
• Danaos (DAC) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $174
• Equinix (EQIX) Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James; PT $1,250
• Everus Construction Group (ECG) Raised to Buy at Guggenheim; PT $160
• Global Ship Lease (GSL) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $51
• Hertz (HTZ) Raised to Neutral at Northcoast
• Lennox (LII) Raised to Buy at Vertical Research; PT $600
• Qualcomm (QCOM) Raised to Buy at Fubon; PT $195
• Raised to Buy at Summit Insights
• SiteOne Landscape (SITE) Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $160
• Teradyne (TER) Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $400
• Xometry (XMTR) Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $62
• Downgrades
• Appian (APPN) Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $25
• CGI Inc. (GIB/A CN) Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT C$100
• Constellium SE (CSTM) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $34
• Expand Energy (EXE) Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
• GE Healthcare (GEHC) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $65
• Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $142
• KalVista (KALV) Cut to Neutral at Jones; PT $27
• Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $27
• Meta (META) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $725
• MVB Financial (MVBF) Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
• Oneok (OKE) Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $89
• Wingstop (WING) Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $190
• XOMA Royalty (XOMA) Cut to Neutral at HC Wainwright; PT $39
• Initiations
• Abcourt Mines (ABI CN) Rated New Corporate at Edison Investment Research
• AeroVironment (AVAV) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $293
• Constellation Energy (CEG) US Rated New Buy at President Capital Management; PT $352
• Fireweed Metals (FWZ CN) Rated New Outperform at Raymond James; PT C$6.50
• Kosmos Energy (KOS) Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT $3.60
• Kratos (KTOS) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $82
• Mercedes (MBG GR) ADRs Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT $17.50
• Mistras Group (MG) Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $22
• Palantir (PLTR) Rated New Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $200
• Prosus (PRX NA) ADRs Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $12
• Red Cat (RCAT) Rated New Buy at Clear Street; PT $22
• SharonAI (SHAZ) Rated New Buy at Unified Capital; PT $78.60
• Sutro Biopharma (STRO) Rated New Outperform at Mizuho Securities

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke