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Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:
| Contract | Settlement | Net Change | +/-% |
| S&P 500 (ESU18:CME) | 2914.75 | +15.50 | +0.53% |
| DowJones (YMU18:CBT) | 26,147 | +62 | +0.23% |
| Nasdaq 100 (NQU18:CME) | 7668.75 | +90.75 | +1.18% |
| Russell 2000 (RTYU:CME) | 1736.60 | +7.10 | +0.40% |
Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:
- In Asia 10 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -1.14%, Hang Seng -0.89%, Nikkei +0.09%
- In Europe 13 out of 13 markets are trading lower: CAC -0.26%, DAX -0.45%, FTSE -0.52%
- Fair Value: S&P +0.54, NASDAQ +6.87, Dow +10.24
- Total Volume: 1.10mil ESU & 435 SPU traded in the pit
Today’s Economic Calendar:
Today’s economic calendar includes Weekly Bill Settlement, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays 8:30 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM ET.
S&P 500 Futures: Pre Labor Day Rise Continues
Yesterday, after trading in a 7.5 handle range in the overnight session with virtually minimal response to the GDP number at 7:30, the S&P 500 futures opened the regular session at 2901.75, up +2.25 handles, and traveled lower, making the session low in the first half hour at 2898.75. Shortly after 9:00 am, buy programs took over the ESU pushing the benchmark index future up to 2916.25, a new all time high, just after 11:00 am, and from there began to chop around at the highs.
The afternoon saw a move down to a 2911.25 low just after 1:00 before rallying late in the day up to a last hour high of 2817.50, and then trailing off into the cash close, printing 2914.50 at 3:00 and settling the day at 2914.5, up +15.50 handles, or +0.54%.
In the end, the day was more of the same that we have seen in recent weeks, a low volume thin to win trade higher. Buy programs controlled the day, leaving those who are waiting for even modest pullbacks to buy left in the dust, as the markets continue to be slow pre-Labor Day weekend.
Stock Traders Almanac September Strategy Calendar
[gview file=”https://mrtopstep.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/AIN_0918_20180823_September_Calendar_pdf.pdf”]
Daily HotSpots
HotSpots are times during the market trading session that for the past XX days have consistently moved in one direction or the other. These HotSpots are published each morning pre-market. The next day, a results post is also published and weekly a summary post.
CAUTION: This data is under development and provided only for research and teaching purposes
If you have questions about HotSpots you can contact us at info@mrtopstep.com.
Normal
Normal is a straight trading day count. A 5 day normal on a full-trading week would include Monday through Friday. A 5 day normal on a Monday holiday week would be the previous week’s Friday, skip Saturday, Sunday and holiday Monday and then Tuesday through Friday.
Early close days are considered non-trading in our normal count and are therefore skipped also.
| 08-30-2018 | 21-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1352 | 1400 | 86 | 0.01 | 0.74 | |
| ES_F | long | 0931 | 0941 | 86 | 0.01 | 30.50 | |
| ES_F | short | 1535 | 1555 | -90 | -0.01 | -37.50 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1158 | 1220 | 86 | 0.02 | 124.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1547 | 1555 | -86 | -0.01 | -62.50 | |
| YM_F | long | 1201 | 1213 | 86 | 0.01 | 212.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1535 | 1557 | -95 | -0.02 | -385.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-01″,”2018-08-02″,”2018-08-03″,”2018-08-06″,”2018-08-07″,”2018-08-08″,”2018-08-09″,”2018-08-10″,”2018-08-13″,”2018-08-14″,”2018-08-15″,”2018-08-16″,”2018-08-17″,”2018-08-20″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-22″,”2018-08-23″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-29”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 13:52 until 14:00 ET has been profitable 86% of the time over the last 21 days.
| 08-30-2018 | 13-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1426 | 1434 | 85 | 0.02 | 1.03 | |
| CL_F | short | 1039 | 1053 | -92 | -0.02 | -1.34 | |
| ES_F | long | 1156 | 1221 | 92 | 0.01 | 20.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1535 | 1555 | -100 | -0.01 | -27.75 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1017 | 1039 | 92 | 0.01 | 86.00 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1547 | 1555 | -100 | -0.01 | -50.25 | |
| YM_F | long | 1156 | 1213 | 92 | 0.01 | 169.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1535 | 1552 | -100 | -0.01 | -276.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-13″,”2018-08-14″,”2018-08-15″,”2018-08-16″,”2018-08-17″,”2018-08-20″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-22″,”2018-08-23″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-29”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 14:26 until 14:34 ET has been profitable 85% of the time over the last 13 days.
| 08-30-2018 | 11-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1310 | 1320 | 91 | 0.01 | 0.68 | |
| CL_F | short | 1004 | 1024 | -91 | -0.02 | -1.21 | |
| ES_F | long | 0932 | 0942 | 100 | 0.01 | 15.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1535 | 1555 | -100 | -0.01 | -24.50 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1026 | 1039 | 91 | 0.01 | 72.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1547 | 1555 | -100 | -0.01 | -37.50 | |
| YM_F | long | 0934 | 0944 | 100 | 0.01 | 158.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1535 | 1554 | -100 | -0.01 | -229.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-15″,”2018-08-16″,”2018-08-17″,”2018-08-20″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-22″,”2018-08-23″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-29”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 13:10 until 13:20 ET has been profitable 91% of the time over the last 11 days.
| 08-30-2018 | 8-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1247 | 1303 | 100 | 0.01 | 0.46 | |
| CL_F | short | 1124 | 1132 | -100 | -0.01 | -0.65 | |
| ES_F | long | 0930 | 0941 | 100 | 0.00 | 12.50 | |
| ES_F | short | 1536 | 1555 | -100 | -0.01 | -15.25 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1019 | 1039 | 100 | 0.01 | 58.75 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1259 | 1312 | -100 | -0.00 | -28.50 | |
| YM_F | long | 0934 | 0944 | 100 | 0.00 | 127.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1533 | 1555 | -100 | -0.01 | -158.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-20″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-22″,”2018-08-23″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-29”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 12:47 until 13:03 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 8 days.
| 08-30-2018 | 5-normal | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 0938 | 0954 | 100 | 0.01 | 0.62 | |
| CL_F | short | 1014 | 1025 | -100 | -0.01 | -0.53 | |
| ES_F | long | 0947 | 1010 | 100 | 0.00 | 10.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1536 | 1555 | -100 | -0.00 | -8.25 | |
| NQ_F | long | 0938 | 1003 | 100 | 0.01 | 67.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1046 | 1108 | -100 | -0.00 | -31.75 | |
| YM_F | long | 1149 | 1215 | 100 | 0.00 | 111.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1535 | 1555 | -100 | -0.00 | -98.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-23″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27″,”2018-08-28″,”2018-08-29”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 09:38 until 09:54 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 5 days.
TaylorPlus
TaylorPlus, unlike the Taylor3 cycle count the TaylorPlus does not use Weekends, Holidays or Early close days as part of the cycle count. TaylorPlus counts finds the 3rd closest “tradeable” day, then the next 3rd until the cycle count is complete. Weekends, holidays and early-close are all considered non-tradeable days and are skipped in the count.
| 08-30-2018 | 21-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1057 | 1108 | 90 | 0.02 | 1.07 | |
| CL_F | short | 1324 | 1348 | -81 | -0.02 | -1.24 | |
| ES_F | long | 1250 | 1303 | 90 | 0.01 | 25.25 | |
| ES_F | short | 1543 | 1554 | -81 | -0.01 | -15.75 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1125 | 1145 | 86 | 0.02 | 112.75 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1327 | 1335 | -81 | -0.01 | -38.00 | |
| YM_F | long | 1248 | 1305 | 90 | 0.01 | 169.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1305 | 1315 | -86 | -0.01 | -171.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-06-01″,”2018-06-04″,”2018-06-07″,”2018-06-13″,”2018-06-19″,”2018-06-22″,”2018-06-25″,”2018-06-28″,”2018-07-10″,”2018-07-13″,”2018-07-16″,”2018-07-19″,”2018-07-25″,”2018-07-31″,”2018-08-03″,”2018-08-06″,”2018-08-09″,”2018-08-15″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 10:57 until 11:08 ET has been profitable 90% of the time over the last 21 days.
| 08-30-2018 | 13-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1355 | 1409 | 92 | 0.01 | 0.89 | |
| CL_F | short | 1033 | 1054 | -85 | -0.02 | -1.53 | |
| ES_F | long | 1252 | 1303 | 100 | 0.01 | 14.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1303 | 1325 | -85 | -0.01 | -19.00 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1207 | 1230 | 92 | 0.01 | 73.25 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1040 | 1051 | -85 | -0.01 | -68.00 | |
| YM_F | long | 1248 | 1303 | 100 | 0.00 | 108.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1305 | 1316 | -100 | -0.00 | -118.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-07-10″,”2018-07-13″,”2018-07-16″,”2018-07-19″,”2018-07-25″,”2018-07-31″,”2018-08-03″,”2018-08-06″,”2018-08-09″,”2018-08-15″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 13:55 until 14:09 ET has been profitable 92% of the time over the last 13 days.
| 08-30-2018 | 11-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1355 | 1407 | 91 | 0.01 | 0.68 | |
| CL_F | short | 1033 | 1053 | -91 | -0.02 | -1.47 | |
| ES_F | long | 1110 | 1136 | 100 | 0.01 | 19.25 | |
| ES_F | short | 1303 | 1316 | -91 | -0.01 | -15.75 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1109 | 1135 | 100 | 0.01 | 76.50 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1036 | 1051 | -91 | -0.01 | -50.25 | |
| YM_F | long | 1120 | 1138 | 100 | 0.01 | 183.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1305 | 1316 | -100 | -0.00 | -106.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-07-16″,”2018-07-19″,”2018-07-25″,”2018-07-31″,”2018-08-03″,”2018-08-06″,”2018-08-09″,”2018-08-15″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 13:55 until 14:07 ET has been profitable 91% of the time over the last 11 days.
| 08-30-2018 | 8-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1247 | 1303 | 100 | 0.00 | 0.34 | |
| CL_F | short | 1334 | 1348 | -100 | -0.01 | -0.89 | |
| ES_F | long | 1157 | 1219 | 100 | 0.01 | 19.00 | |
| ES_F | short | 1545 | 1554 | -100 | -0.00 | -12.50 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1201 | 1225 | 100 | 0.01 | 64.75 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1305 | 1331 | -87 | -0.01 | -42.75 | |
| YM_F | long | 1153 | 1219 | 100 | 0.01 | 194.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1545 | 1554 | -100 | -0.01 | -140.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-07-31″,”2018-08-03″,”2018-08-06″,”2018-08-09″,”2018-08-15″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 12:47 until 13:03 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 8 days.
| 08-30-2018 | 5-taylorPlus | Entry | Exit | Trade | Profit | Profit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contract | Direction | Time | Time | % | % | Points | HeatMap |
| CL_F | long | 1349 | 1357 | 100 | 0.01 | 0.45 | |
| CL_F | short | 1015 | 1041 | -100 | -0.02 | -1.24 | |
| ES_F | long | 1124 | 1136 | 100 | 0.00 | 12.75 | |
| ES_F | short | 1535 | 1555 | -100 | -0.00 | -11.50 | |
| NQ_F | long | 1124 | 1136 | 100 | 0.01 | 54.00 | |
| NQ_F | short | 1046 | 1054 | -100 | -0.00 | -28.25 | |
| YM_F | long | 1153 | 1219 | 100 | 0.00 | 115.00 | |
| YM_F | short | 1535 | 1554 | -100 | -0.01 | -132.00 |
Trading dates are:
[“2018-08-09″,”2018-08-15″,”2018-08-21″,”2018-08-24″,”2018-08-27”]
To read this chart using CL_F above, a Long from 13:49 until 13:57 ET has been profitable 100% of the time over the last 5 days.
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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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