What A Bear Market Looks Like

Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

• In Asia 8 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp +0.02%, Hang Seng -1.01%, Nikkei -3.72%
• In Europe 7 out of 13 markets are trading higher: CAC +1.18%, DAX +0.25%, FTSE -0.06%
• Fair Value: S&P +0.30, NASDAQ +9.58, Dow -25.82
• Total Volume: 2.84mil ESZ & 910 SPZ traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

Today’s economic calendar includes Weekly Bill Settlement, Durable Goods Orders 8:30 AM ET, International Trade in Goods 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Retail Inventories 8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories 8:30 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET, Richard Clarida Speaks 12:15 PM ET, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM ET, and Loretta Mester Speaks 7:00 PM ET.

S&P 500 Futures: #ES Down 19 Of The Last 24 Sessions

After retracing in the globex session, the S&P 500 futures opened Wednesday’s regular session at 2739.00, down -17.00 handles. After the 8:30 CT bell, the benchmark futures chopped around, making the high for the day at 2743.50 in the first fifteen minutes, then started to sell off at 9:00 as sell programs and momentum picked up. Selling pressure pulled the ES down to 2704.50 just after 10:00, and then, after a shallow bounce, re-tested the low, making a morning low of 2703.75 just after 10:30. From there, the futures rallied up to 2728.75 at 11:00, before trailing back lower to close the morning.

The afternoon saw a continued grind lower, making a new low of day just after noon, and in a lot of two sided price action made its way down to 2693.00 right at 1:00, just above Tuesday’s low. After that, the ES rallied up to 2712.00, and then turned back lower into the final hour.

The S&P 500 made a new low in the 2:00 hour, breaking into negative territory for 2018. The futures dumped with a heavy wave of selling down to 2652.25. The ES went on to rally up to 2658.25 on the 3:00 cash close, and then up to 2672.25 before settling the day at 2665.50, down -81.25 handles, or -2.96%.

Daily HotSpots

HotSpots are times during the market trading session that for the past XX days have consistently moved in one direction or the other. These HotSpots are published each morning pre-market. The next day, a results post is also published and weekly a summary post.

CAUTION: This data is under development and provided only for research and teaching purposes

If you have questions about HotSpots you can contact us at info@mrtopstep.com.

Lookbacks:

The lookback period (number of days) is set at 21,13,11,8 and 5 days. A heat-map is generated for each of these lookback periods, the best trade from day is scored.
The period of time that has consistently produced the best results becomes the hotspot for that look back. There are also different look-back types like Taylor and Taylor Plus.
Taylor cycles are usually 3-day cycles. A Taylor-5 look-back would use the last 5 trading days skipping back by 3 trading days. Taylor Plus uses calendar days so weekends and none
trading days are counted as part of the skip count. If a lookback period falls on a none trading day, it is not used so a TaylorPlus will continue skipping back until 5 trading days are found for the heatmap calculation.

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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

_{Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.}