Market Review
I’m reminded of that saying; “When people of good conscience refuse to take a stand evil will always prevail!”
And that’s all I got to say about that…
My good friend tells me Cramer is worried that the market is going up on Hope and Faith. Hope that whoever wins the presidency the other side does NOT burn down the country. And faith that the vaccine will be a wonder cure and the country can open back up again without fail…
By my eye, the market is going up on vaper ware. 900,000 odd lots on a 26 handle range?
That does not bode confidence for the bulls. Did you see the Micro Crash around last hour at the 3682? I did. I gave my subscriber the 3682 as a level. You could have taken 20 handles off that run…
I made a video if you want to see it. This time it’s only 6 minutes.
https://my.demio.com/ref/BJa43aHJZFtj3XLx
By my eye, yesterday’s clock action was aberrant S2L or you could flip it to S2H. Either way today it’s Friday and the Employment numbers come out. And the stimulus bill is hanging in the wings. And the potential for Trump’s Twitter storms… Do you think there is any more vaccine news?
Looking Forward Friday, December 4, 2020
Yesterday’s crash down found support at the previous day’s (Dec-2) 14:00 RTE low on greatly increased volume. Perhaps the Composite Man was just not ready to lift offers past the 3682? This resulted in a bounce up to 3671 handle as I’m currently writing.
If buying pressure comes in we still have that volume spike (see the top graphic with the arrow around 15:22 marker. If selling pressure comes in we have the next big level of support at the 3650 handle. And then the 3643 handle.
I can guarantee with absolute certainty, Trump will not do a resignation speech tomorrow. However, you can not predict the outcome of a random event. It’s just a series of events just as trades can give you an edge. So, I really can’t guarantee it. I can say it’s a high probability that he won’t…
We need to wait and see those employment numbers. The bigger players may just throw over what they supported yesterday to Andy and the late young bulls. I’m NOT sure Robinhood and his band of young inexperienced traders can hold this market up if it is the desire to quickly get out from under that which one has to unload…
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 35 points Monday, 11 points Tuesday, 20 points Wednesday, and 37 points Thursday. Total for the week 103 points, that would be $5,150 on 1 lot and $15,450 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
We are now starting to use our new MiM 4 product as the last of the bugs are getting shaken out. We had a decent buy going on the early MiM which totally flipped on the 15:50 reveal into an 800M sell that flushed the 15:50 candel down a good 15 points. The 15:55 buyers came in and reversed the flush for a solid ten point rip. Traders always need to be aware of these two times or else they will get caught in a rip tide that they just can’t swim against.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
The Covid news is bleak. We are moving through our Thanksgiving data holiday and the data fog is starting to lift and we are resuming our march higher in both cases and deaths. We should be over 2K daily deaths in our 7-day average as big numbers role in today and more closures to be announced. There are some bright spots, North Dakota and Montana and Wisconsin are continuing to improve. Thanksgiving Covid spread should start to show up in the numbers over the weekend and into next week.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – Chart of the Day – Crude – Dec 4, 2020
Crude (JAN)
Today’s headline:
“OPEC-Plus agrees to increase output by 500K barrels a day beginning in January.”
This news item brought Crude tour next upside target 46.70.
The next upside target hereafter is 47.20.
However, technically Crude is near a high.
Therefore, the trading suggestion is short Crude at the market with a buy stop at 47.20.
Please note that Crude did not cancel its buy signal yet, and that it is an early trade.
A close below 44.20 confirms a sell signal.
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GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3673.50 | Opening Print: 36667.00 |
| Low: 3657.50 | High 3682.00 |
| Volume: 160,000 | Low: 3655.25 |
| ES Settlement 3670.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.0 M |
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date December 3, 2020
S&P 500 Futures: All Time Closing High
After trading in a 16.00 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Wednesday’s cash session at 3667.00, down 3.25 handles, traded a morning low of 3666.50 on the open, and then rallied up to 3679.75 for the morning high just after 9:30 CT. From there, the S&Ps traded sideways to lower through the remainder of the morning down to a noon low of 3664.00.
After 1:00, the markets did pick up momentum as the ES rallied up to the daily high of 3682.00, an 18.00 handle bounce into 2:30 before an intense wave of selling took the futures to the low of day of 3655.25 in the final minutes before rallying to settle at 3670.50, up 3.25 handles or +0.09%.
In terms of price action, it was all about buying the open and selling the 9:30 high, then buying the pullback at 12:30. In terms of volume, it was another very light day with just over a million contracts traded.
Our View
Jobs Friday Meets US + 4 Million COVID19 Cases
While the ES, NQ, RTY and YM continue their record run, total COVID19 cases in the United States have surged to over 4 million with over 100,000 infected patients in U.S. hospitals. Clearly, herd immunity is underway. There is a disconnect between the stock market and the record number of covid cases with just over 270,000 deaths, by far the highest in the world. This morning the U.S. Labor Department will release the November jobs report. According to Dow Jones, the U.S. economy is expected to have added 440,000 jobs, a slowdown from 638,000 in October. Goldman Sachs estimates non-farm payrolls (NFP) to be over 450,000 and expects the unemployment rate to fall from 6.9% to 6.8%. I am not sure how this is going to pan out. The index market feels so stretched out but every time they fall they come flying back up.
Our view, sometimes it’s best to forget what you think and just follow the trend. I am not saying things won’t eventually catch up with the S&P, it will, but I am taking a ‘simple, stupid’ approach. I am not here to fight city hall, if the ES is going up I want to go for the ride. Our lean, this trade idea will require a lot more Globex volume then we have been seeing the past few days. If the ES gaps sharply up or down (preferably) and ES volume is 300,000 we want to fade the move. If it gaps up we want to sell it and buy the early pullbacks and if it gaps down we want to buy it. This is just an opening trade then I want to get a look at the price action but my guess is we keep going up and look for a late Friday RIP!!!! Personally, I have had a good run and ‘Frydays’ are not my best trading day so I may trade the open but I am not going to trade all day.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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