WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03062024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Following the modest pullback seen during the previous session, stocks showed a more substantial move to the downside during trading on Tuesday. The major averages all moved notably lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing a particularly steep drop.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
From page 3: "I. Market analysis – Neurtral: Last hour and a half of trade give reason to be concerned. Price held in a tight range just below Friday's high and then started to lift support on increased volume. Then around 3:40 pm the volume (effort) spikes and the result (price) is dismal. This could be signs of a terminal upthurst. Need a few days to confirm."
How about one day? How about no days? It was a dancing with Matilida day with a long left leg!
Monday had an inversion with that last hout upthrust. I made a video on it but you probally didn't see it. That was the S1L day. Today the bulls had one last opportunity to bring it, but they droped the soap at 10:05 am. That was the quick pop to half way retracement. Yes I know, Jim would have said halfback. Wyckoff. Wyckoff would have said it was a weak rally from 3/8 retracement from the close. This indicates further weakness to come.
WB. WB, bulls droped the soap and its bears "jump ball." Of course all these folks are dead. That is but Jim and I. Last I checked I'm still here and Jim. Yes he's still here. I was IFFY as I will be IFFY today. Now, price has moved into the hands of the strong from the weak.
As the market opened, we already lost S2 and we were working our way to S3, which you very rarely see. I had it on my mind, but I didn't have it on my chart 5084. That was the Weekly S1 pivot. By 11:40 am price taged it. Looked like it would hold. It did not.
We rally back up to about 12:55 pm. If you draw a line from there to there, you'll see a measured move. And where do you think that ends? How about 3:00 pm? So is it really bearish if all the weak traders give their positions over to the Composite Man?
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you you might be curious when the best time to consider a short position. Here are the potential entry points identified from the analysis:
1. After the spike in volume around 3:40 pm on the day before, as it could be a sign of a terminal upthrust.
2. When the price tested and failed to hold the Weekly S1 pivot around 11:40 am.
3. When the price reached the measured move around 12:55 pm, which ended near 3:00 pm, as it might have been the result of weak traders giving their positions to the Composite Man. (close your short position)
However, it is always important to carefully consider the risks and to have a well-thought-out trading plan before entering any positions.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S3L with the spill up.
News: ADP Employment Report at 8:15, JOLTS & Jerome Powell Speaks at 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30. All times EST.
Last Night: Price traded within a tight range after close, then started to lift offers at 2:25 am up to the daily pivot this morning.
Edge: I'm seeing a strong technical position as prices may try to regain yesterdays' losses with JP's comments.
From the upthrust eariler this week new now have a potential strong technical position with the selling climax and automatic rally at the close.
This day will determine if bulls will start to move this month higher or drop the soap. (yes I said that yesterday)
The market is trending upwards; however, there are some potential risks on the horizon. (from yesterday)
7/8/9 AM: Found a bid at the daily pivot of 5104. Now trying to get out of the weekly pivot of 5116.
Today: Need to see a strong showing by the bulls else the bears will start to hit the bid.
Bulls Want: 03, 13, 35
Bears Want: 97, 84, 61
Globex: 31 handle trading range on 208 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 14.02
Shape of the day: Rope follows expansion surgon's scaple to trade it.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, MID AM HIGH, lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Got long in the last 30 minutes. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Got long in the last 30 minutes. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Unsure of direction and sit out the trade. OUT
Pre Opening: Price is waitng on JP at 10:00 am.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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