WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03212024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After coming under pressure early in the session, stocks showed a significant turnaround over the course of the trading day on Tuesday. The major averages climbed well off their worst levels of the day and into positive territory. Traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve's Wednesday.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Everyone has an opinion, so that's why I try not to have one…but then again I do run a market timing newsletter. So, here WAS MY opinion on page three from yesterday:
"II. Trade entry – I'm Cautiously Bullish till the Weekly R1 is recovered at the 5239 handle. If price dips to the 3:00 pm low of 5227 down to the 5217 I'm getting long. Could see a dip to 5209, still getting long. If we lose the S1 5209 I'm neutral or perhaps venturing a short. Stops 1% of trading account."
What I wanted to say was; "It'll be like shooting fish in a barrel.!" The market already telegraphed it's next move. We could NOT get away from the R1 (Weekly) if you took it (gotten LONG) at the 5239 handle, you either made a little or a lot. Of course, that would have depended upon when you took it.
My take away from the FED was don't press me. I'll get it done, it's just take time. They seemed to be very concerned about reducing the cost of home ownership. First they are reducing the Realtor Commission from 6% down to 3%, 1%, or NO PERCENT. Second, sounded like he was trying to reduce the interest rate for the home loan.
The best place to have gotten long would have been just around 2:35 pm after price tagged high and pulled back into the opening range. You could see it barely tagged the opening print. This gives you the opportunity to get out of the ALGO fray and see where/if real buying pressure will come in.
If you got long around 1:40 pm and held till the end of the meeting, you did really well. If you held till the close, then you probably got skunk loved.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a long position:
Based on the information provided, a seasoned day trader looking to get long the eMini futures market could have entered a long position when around 2:35 pm after the price tags high and pulls back into the opening range. This would allow the trader to avoid the fray of the algorithmic trading and see where real buying pressure will come in. Additionally, entering a long position around 1:40 pm and holding till the end of the meeting could have resulted in a profitable trade.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S2L with the spill up.
News: Jobless Claims & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at 8:30, PMI Composite Flash at 9:45, Existing Home Sales at 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: No edge yet. The time change and muddy the clock and the contract changed.
There has been a change in the force. At least in the Day Light Savings time. It will take a few days.
A weak or two for the force to realign itself. Till then your TS's and roundies. Clock muddy for now.
7/8/9 AM: Price held a bid around big even and rallied back up to R1 5316 handle.
Today: Bulls need to hold what they got from yesterday.
Bulls Want: 94, 16, 37
Bears Want: 74, 61, 53
Globex: 20 handle trading range on 158 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 12.80
Shape of the day: Due to time change, clock may be muddy.
Honing: Waiting on clock to synch
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Got long just after 2:00 before JP. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Got long just after 2:35 durring JP. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Got long at 1:45 pm. Held till the 2:05 pm. OUT.
Pre Opening: Looking to challenge R1 5316 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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