WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03252024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After trending higher over the past several sessions, stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Friday. The major averages fluctuated over the course of the session before eventually ending the day mixed.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
WOW last Friday was some kind of day. We had conformation on two different fronts. Geopolitical was off the charts. Did the market care? Did the market notice? Not that I saw. Friday was an S3 day. The clock was getting back in synch. Today we should be in synch.
The S3L or H day is typically a tight range kind of day. Rope follows expansion. Need a surgeons scaple to trade it. WB would say. Often I forget that. Friday was a class. It's also know as a W or M day. The W or M imply a tight range kind of day.
Overnight after the close price started to drift down. Two pushed down took it almost to S1 of the Floor Trader Pivots. This implies price is below the daily pivot. A secondary test at 3:30 am give the bulls confidence to try a go at the daily pivot. At 5:00 am and 6:45 am the second probe indicated that all for the bulls.
Price just gives it up and by 8:00 am price printed a new Globex low. It appears price is oversold at the Weekly R2. At the opening print price has risen up to it's bullish potential at the 5403 handle. It looked promising but by 11:00 am price was printing a new now of day.
A rally to 11:35 am and then a dip to 12:35 pm, prints the low of day. If you were looking to get long this would have been the place. Bears just wetbeaked the prevous low of day.
Price responded quickly and by 2:25 pm the bulls were signaling the high. You had to be quick. Price quickly took away the profit from the rise.
The market close off it's lows at 3:15 pm and then by the closing print, bears took it all away…
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a long position:
Based on the information provided, a seasoned day trader looking to get long the eMini futures might have considered putting a long position on around the 12:35 pm timeframe, when the low of the day was printed and the bears "wetbeaked" the previous low of the day. This is because, after that point, the price quickly responded and moved higher, allowing for a potential profit opportunity.
In general, when looking to get long the market, a trader would want to identify a support level or an oversold condition, and then wait for a confirmation of a reversal pattern or a bullish signal from a technical indicator before entering the position.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S2H Normal with the spill down.
News: New Home Sales at 10:00. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: The clock should be back in syncy. Looks like it's starting out bearish.
7/8/9 AM: Trying to hoild a bid at the Weekly S2 5272 handle.
Today: Could see a retracement of Wednesday's FED day
Bulls Want: 96, 05, 20
Bears Want: 81, 72, 48
Globex: 23 handle trading range on 148 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 13.57
Shape of the day: Of all the day's a trader could trade WB disliked this day the most. However, I on the other hand perfered it. It was the one day where if a trade was to trend, this would have been the day. Now looking back, that was a roaring bull market and the POTUS had just changed to Mr. T.
Honing: Spill down, AM HIGH, (no mid am), lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Holding LONG. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Holding LONG. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Did not see an edge all day. OUT.
Pre Opening: Holding on the the Weekly S2 5272 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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