Daily Game Plan

by Contributor
on March 28, 2024

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET  GDP, Core PCE Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims; 9:45ET MNI Chicago PMI; 10:00ET Pending
Home Sales, U. of Mich. Sentiment; 11:00ET Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

  • Momentum stocks are outperforming S&P 500 by widest margin since 2008
  • Sam Bankman-Fried faces a 40-to-50 year prison term in his fraud case sentencing due today
  • Insurance payouts for the Baltimore bridge collapse may be among the largest ever in marine insurance, Lloyd’s of London CEO John Neal said.

Global shares were slightly lower, however still headed for a second quarterly gain. MSCI Inc.’s global stocks index is expected to increase by over 7% this quarter
and is approaching its own record high. Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve official, stated that there is no urgency to decrease US interest rates. He emphasized that recent economic data suggests a need to delay or lessen the number of rate cuts in the current
year. Meanwhile, treasury yields advanced, led by the short end. The dollar and oil gained, and gold nudged up.    

 

EQUITIES:  

 

US equity futures were slightly lower following the S&P 500’s record close on Wednesday, with futures showing little change. Home Depot’s subsidiary entered a definitive
agreement to acquire SRS Distribution, a residential specialty trade distribution company, for about $18.25 billion, including net debt. In pre-market trading,  Akebia Therapeutics experiences a 20% surge in shares after the FDA approval of vadadustat, an
anemia medicine. Estee Lauder saw a 2.0% increase as Bank of America upgrades the company to buy, citing improved earnings. MillerKnoll shares declined by 17% due to fourth-quarter adjusted earnings missing estimates and disappointing third-quarter sales.
RH shares jumped 7.8% despite missing adjusted earnings per share, as its fiscal year 2024 demand expectations drive optimism. Snowflake shares rise by 3.1% after CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy’s $5 million share purchase. Sprinklr shares increased by 9.5% following
a stronger-than-expected full-year forecast and fourth-quarter results.Earnings reports are expected from Walgreens Boots Alliance, Oxford Industries, Torrid Holdings, and MSC Industrial Direct.

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P -0.02%, Nasdaq -0.03%, Russell 2000 +0.03, DJ I+0.05 %

European shares are poised for their best quarterly performance in a year, driven by optimism about interest rate cuts and economic growth. FTSE 100 led the way, despite data confirming the U.K.
economy sank into a recession in the final six months of 2023. The Stoxx Europe 600 index is up nearly 7% for the quarter, with gains on Thursday led by the retail and mining sectors. Among individual movers, Soitec shares fell after disappointing outlook,
while Spirent Communications surged on a buyout offer from Keysight Technologies. The rally in European stocks has broadened out this month beyond the biggest names on the benchmark such as ASML Holding NV and Novo Nordisk A/S unlike the US where the gains
remain concentrated in big tech stocks. Stoxx 600 +0.1%, DAX was flat, CAC +0.2%, FTSE 100 +0.3%.

Asian stocks edged lower as Japanese shares declined, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.4%, hovering close to its biggest first-quarter gain in five years. Japanese benchmarks declined more
than 1.4%, TSMC and Toyota were among the biggest drags on the gauge. Stocks rose in mainland China and Hong Kong after a report spurred speculation that Beijing will expand its monetary-easing tools to boost the economy. Chinese internet stocks including
Meituan rose and Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision climbed to a record on AI expectations. India’s Nifty 50 measure climbed as much as 1.8%, the most in nearly two months, helped by a rally in bank shares. Many markets will be closed for the Easter holiday on Friday.
Hang Seng Index +0.9%, CSI 300 +0.5%, Kospi -0.3%. Nikkei 225 -1.5%, Sensex +0.9%, Singapore -1.0%, ASX 200 +1.0%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasury yields experienced a bear flattening move, with losses mainly concentrated in the front-end, leading to a flattening of the yield curve.This followed comments from the Fed’s Waller suggesting
fewer rate cuts or a delay in monetary easing. Additionally, BOE’s Haskel hinted at a distant possibility of rate cuts, adding to the hawkish sentiment. US session focus includes GDP and jobless claims data.

 

METALS: 
   

 

Gold rises continuing a three-day rally that put it near a record as investors await key US data due Friday. Markets are gearing up for the central bank’s preferred
inflation gauge, which is expected to show prices remained uncomfortably high in February. Bullion has also seen some support from falling yields on US Treasuries, driven by strong results at two auctions for five- and seven-year notes earlier this week. Spot
gold +0.8%, Silver -0.1%.

 

 

ENERGY:   

 

Oil prices increased on Thursday due to supply concerns fueled by Russia’s decision to implement output cuts and the unsuccessful attempts to bring about a cease-fire in the
Gaza Strip. More than a fifth of global oil refining capacity is at risk of closure, energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie found in analysis published on Thursday, as gasoline margins weaken and the pressure to reduce carbon emissions mounts . WTI +1.4%, Brent
+1.3%, US Nat Gas -1.1%, RBOB +1%

 

 

CURRENCIES:   

 

In currency markets, the dollar edged higher and is poised for its best quarter since late 2022 as Federal Reserve officials push back against the latest bout of
rate-cut wagers. Hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller added to speculation the US central bank is in no hurry to loosen policy and will lag other major rate-setters. GBPUSD slightly lower as Bank of England’s Jonathan Haskel suggested rate
cuts are distant. AUDUSD fell on sales by leveraged accounts and Waller’s comments. NZDUSD declined due to weakened consumer and business confidence. Meanwhile, Japan’s threat of Yen intervention has failed to change the yen’s weakening trajectory against
the dollar. US$ Index +0.2%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.3%, USDJPY flat, AUDUSD -0.6%, NZDUSD -0.6%, USDCHF -0.2%.

 

 

Spot Bitcoin +2.2%, Ethereum +1.8%. SEC’s targeting of Coinbase’s trading activities and “staking” program underscores a broader regulatory sweep. This legal battle
not only challenges Coinbase but also sets a precedent for the entire crypto sector. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says their spot Bitcoin ETF,IBIT, “is the fastest growing ETF in the history of ETFs.”

 

 

  • Upgrades
  • Downgrades
    • Apple (AAPL)
      Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $180
    • Argonaut
      Gold       (AR CN) Cut to Market Perform at BMO
    • Bank
      of America       (BAC) Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $39
    • CRH (CRH)
      Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT $95
    • Galapagos (GLPG
      NA) ADRs Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT $31
    • General
      Mills       (GIS) Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management
    • Pebblebrook (PEB)
      Cut to Neutral at Compass Point; PT $17
    • Pivotree (PVT
      CN) Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT C$1.50
    • Weibo (WB)
      ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman
  • Initiations

 

 

 

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

 

 

Categories:

Charts

Tags:

aucldxesngqqqsp500tyusdvixwtiX

Comments are closed