WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-04022024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After failing to sustain an early move to the upside, stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the trading day on Monday. The Dow and the S&P 500 gave back ground after ending last Thursday's trading at record closing highs, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq managed to end the day in positive territory.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
I'll have to admit, I got that one wrong. Price was trading up at the Weekly R1 handle. And the daily R2 handle. That's what I did not see. Price was over bought. As the Sun started to break over the eastern skies, bulls dropped the soap and the bears picked it up. It was more like 9:15 am to be exact.
At 6:35 am price lost S2 5328 handle. By 9:45 am price tested the R1 and lost the 5317 handle. By 10:10 am the 5309 daily pivot was lost. And by 10:40 am the Weekly Daily Pivot as well as the S1 5309 handle was lost. Then price starts to find a bid around 12:00 pm and starts trading around S2 handle.
Looking back the best play would have been short. The Q's was selling off at the open. it all looked good for the bulls until 9:45 am. Bulls could not bring it. Volume just drops out at 9:55 am on the last rally to 10:00 am. At 10:00 am, price loses all gains for the day and set's new lows at 10:05 am.
A quick 10 minute rally get's price back into the halfway mark of the opening range and set's up the short trade. If you were looking for the best place to get short the market, this was the place. A Sign of Weakness at 10:05 am and then a weak rally back up to the Last Point of Supply at 10:15 am.
Did I take it? No. I had bull eyes. Perhaps I was upset of the politics of the weekend. Too close to the bull perspective. Just did not believe that a Weekly R1 pivot could retrace all they back through the Weekly Pivot and then find support at the Weekly S1 pivot all with the span of two hours or less. But, now I do!
Best quote all day: IMPRO: PITBULL :(10:30:57 AM) : Sitting on the bench with my bags of gold And he had a few bags!
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position:
Based on the information provided, it seems that the best place for a seasoned day trader to put a position on in the eMini futures market would have been to short the market at the last point of supply around 10:15 am. This is because price had already broken through several key levels of support, including the daily pivot and the S1 handle, indicating that the bulls were unable to maintain control. Additionally, volume had dropped significantly during the previous rally, which can be a sign of weakness.
Furthermore, the weak rally back up to the last point of supply presented a prime opportunity to enter a short position, as it allowed the trader to enter at a higher price than the current low, thereby maximizing potential profits if the trade was successful.
It's also worth noting that the trader's own bias and emotions can play a role in decision making, as mentioned in the text. Therefore, it's important for traders to be aware of their own biases and to have a solid trading plan in place to help mitigate the influence of emotions on their decisions.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S2L Iffy with the spill up.
News: Factory Orders & JOLTS at 10:00. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: Day after Easter holiday, and start of new month / new week. This day could flip to bearish.
Question of tradres minds, is it gap and go or gap and crap?
7/8/9 AM: After losing the Weekly/Daily pivot of 5296 price has gotten weak.
Today: Could see a move up to challenge the 5277 handle down to 5263 handle.
Bulls Want: 10, 20, 31
Bears Want: 83, 74, 64
Globex: 22 handle trading range on 148 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 13.08
Shape of the day: Could see a strong move either way.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, (NO MID AM), lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Added some longs at the start of lunch. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Added some longs at the start of lunch. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Stayed out looking for an edge. OUT.
Pre Opening: Price is trying to hold the weekly S1 5272 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
Comments are closed