WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-04042024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After failing to sustain an early move to the upside, stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the trading day on Monday. The Dow and the S&P 500 gave back ground after ending last Thursday's trading at record closing highs, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq managed to end the day in positive territory.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
As the day opened, we were looking for the secondary test. Perhaps it happened over Globex. Perhaps it happend at the open. That question was settled as the 10:00 am news was released. Price quickly took out all overhead suppply and another shelf of supply within minutes.
This was from Page 3:
II. Trade entry – I need to see the Daily R1, Weekly S2 and 3-Day Pivot recovered. Call it 5272 handle. To get LONG. Don't see any good reason to short but below that that's the line. Stops 1% of account.
III. Trade exit – If you got long at the 5272 or lower around the bottom of the secondary test, perhaps consider recovery of the Daily 10 day MA 5287 for first exit. The Weekly Pivot 5295 for second. And rest at the Daily R3 5308 or hold and close remaining on close. The R3 would be twice the range of the previous day.
Yes we got the 5272 and then the air got let out. The AM LOW was early and weak at 10:10 am. Could you have gotten long? You would have had to been quick. Price grinds up for the next hour and half. The MID AM HIGH seals at 11:30 am center time. The lunch low tags at 12:40 early and weak.
The mid pm high tags early and week at 2:20 pm with a lower high. The volume is just not there. We are expecting the LAST HOUR LOW. Price did not dissapoint. If you were looking to get short the market the mid pm high was the place. Notice that was R2. At 3:30 pm the LAST HOUR LOW is sealed.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position:
Based on the information provided, it seems that a seasoned day trader looking to trade the eMini futures could have identified several potential entry points during the day. However, the best place to put a position to get into the market would have depended on their trading strategy and risk management.
Given the sequence of events, here are some possible entry points:
1. After the early and weak AM low at 10:10 am, price started to grind up for the next hour and a half. A trader could have looked for a long entry during this time frame, possibly around the MID AM HIGH at 11:30 am.
2. After the lunch low tagged at 12:40 pm, price made a new high at 2:20 pm, but it was an early and weak high with lower volume. A trader could have looked for a short entry around this level, which was R2.
3. Finally, the trader could have waited for the LAST HOUR LOW at 3:30 pm, which was the lowest price of the last hour of trading. This could have been a good opportunity for a short entry, as the trader could have expected the price to continue downwards.
Overall, the best place to put a position would have depended on the trader's strategy and risk management. They could have chosen to enter at any of these points, or they could have waited for additional confirmation before entering the market. It's important to note that trading involves risk, and it's essential to have a well-defined trading plan and risk management strategy.
It's also worth noting that the trader's own bias and emotions can play a role in decision making, as mentioned in the text. Therefore, it's important for traders to be aware of their own biases and to have a solid trading plan in place to help mitigate the influence of emotions on their decisions.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S4H with the spill down.
News: International Trade in Goods and Services at 8:30, Jobless Claims at 8:30, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: Some supply was taken out to the tune of 30,000 lots by traders. It's last day of cycle. I'm still bullish.
7/8/9 AM: Price has drifted up to the mid pm high and R2 trading just under the 10-MA 5287.
Today: Could see a move up to regain the 5287 10 day MA and higher. (same)
Bulls Want: 72, 87, 95
Bears Want: 50, 44, 37
Globex: 18 handle trading range on 108 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 14.21
Shape of the day: This day favors a strong trend cause the cycle is coming to an end. Perhaps a dog leg from the lunch high to mid pm low.
Honing: Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Added LONG at the LAST HOUR LOW. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Added LONG at lunch low. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Got short at MID AM HIGH. Exited at the lunch low. OUT.
Pre Opening: Bulls are giving it a go trying to take out the 5287 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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