The Trump Rally

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Our View

On Monday, I tried to tell people that I thought the ES was holding, and, once again, the public was sold a bill of goods about selling off, but it already had. Below are some very early posts in the room where I laid out what was going on:

These weren’t the only bullish posts. You could see the rolling buy programs and the tone of buy stops, along with the late MIM long trade that I finally caught.

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded down to 5733.00, made a high at 5758.50 on Globex, and opened Super Tuesday’s regular session high at 5753. After the open, the ES traded 5750.50 at 9:32, rallied 41 points up to 5791.50 at 10:00, pulled back to 5781.25, rallied 30 points up to 5811.00, sold off down to 5792.25, rallied up to 5805 at 2:16 p.m., pulled back to 5793.00, rallied up to 5808.25, downticked to 5798.50, and then rallied 15 points up to 5894.25. The ES traded 5803.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $200M to buy and traded 5813.00 at the 4:00 cash close. After 4:00, the ES traded up to 5823.00 and settled at 5822.25, up 79 points or +1.38%. The NQ settled at 20,362.75, up 276.75 points, or +1.38%. The YM settled up 1.17%, and the RTY closed up 2.23%.

In the end, just like I said, everyone got too short into the event. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm all day. For overall trade, the rally clearly took advantage of low liquidity, with only 1.14 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

Fair Values for Oct-23-2024 are as follows, SP: 39.71 NQ: 153.05 Dow: 238.21

Guest Posts:

Room Summaries

Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, November 5, 2024

The session began with a neutral overnight setup, followed by a series of long trades led by PTGDavid, who provided structured guidance throughout the day. Key moments included early successful long trades on both CL and NQ futures. The initial bull scenario was established around the 5750-5775 zone, with precise targets hit, including 5770 and 5775, validating the day’s bullish momentum and prompting dip-buying strategies.

The market showed strength with buyers persistently holding above target zones, and PTGDavid adjusted the trading range (sandbox) upward to reflect new support and resistance levels. Milestone targets at 5800, 5810, and eventually the three-day cycle target of 5822 were all achieved, emphasizing the session’s strong upward momentum.

A significant lesson was the use of volume clusters and “sandbox” zones for target planning, allowing for refined entries and exits. PTGDavid emphasized aligning with the dominant bias, trailing stops to protect profits, and patience in maintaining long positions.

In the evening, after regular trading hours, the bullish trend extended, with price reaching levels well above the day’s targets. A final push reached the CD2 range target at 20600, and PTGDavid advised securing gains as the session closed.

Key Lessons and Highlights:

Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – November 6, 2024

U.S. stocks rose significantly on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closing up by 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively, as election uncertainty appeared to ease. Overnight, futures surged further, with S&P 500 futures climbing 2.3% to an all-time high and Nasdaq 100 futures rising 1.9%. Tesla (TSLA) saw a substantial 13% pre-market increase, driven partly by Elon Musk’s support for former President Trump, whose election chances were perceived as improving.

Volatility spiked both during Tuesday’s session and overnight. The Federal Reserve begins its November monetary policy meeting today, with markets anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut decision tomorrow. Pre-market earnings include reports from major companies like CVS and JCI, with post-market earnings from Qualcomm (QCOM), Gilead (GILD), and others.

The economic calendar today includes S&P Global Services PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET and Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET. Market sentiment remains bullish, though overnight large trader volume was lighter compared to overall high overnight volume levels. The S&P 500 futures climbed through all key levels during the night, marking new highs as election results unfolded.

Economic Calendar

Full Calendar

Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.

Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!