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A Thankful Rest
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Our View
The markets never sleep, even over the holidays. Yes, 80 million people are expected to travel 50 miles or more over the Thanksgiving holiday which will continue to serve the buyers. There are seven economic releases on tap for today including the GDP and the PCE number.
If you are celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday with friends and family, take a pause and reflect on all the positives of the year. The markets will be here when you return.
Our Lean
Economists expect the overall PCE Price Index to have risen 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.3% on an annual basis, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 0.29% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year. Both measures are anticipated to rise compared to September, but analysts say price pressures are still improving. A higher reading in October “doesn’t derail the longer-term trend,” says Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial.
I can’t say the markets won’t sell off after the number, but it’s not going to stop the ES from taking out the contract high at 6053.25. There’s a very big line of buy stops that run from the 6048.59 level all the way up to 6076.00. Keep buying the pullbacks—6100 is coming.
The following is compliments of Jeffrey Hirsch, who publishes the Stock Trader’s Almanac. I’ve known Jeff for over 20 years. The quality and expertise in the Almanac make it one of the best guides to historical stats in the business—don’t go another year without it.
When Stocks Are Up Big YTD Before Thanksgiving
The S&P 500 is having another banner year, up an impressive 25.5% year-to-date through yesterday’s close and on pace for more gains today. When stocks logged double-digit gains YTD on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, in general, market gains continued into year-end.
2024 is set to exceed my 2024 Annual Forecast best-case scenario of 15-25% made 11 months ago. I expect more new all-time highs before year-end. I would not be surprised if the market outperformed the average December and ended up tacking on another 4-5% or more, pushing the index over 6200 for the year or upwards of a 30% gain for 2024.
There are a few blemishes in the 35 previous years, but most importantly, there are no major sell-offs on this list. The big December decline of -9.2% in 2018 came after the S&P 500 was down -1.2% at this point in the year. After double-digit YTD gains, the S&P 500 was up 70% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to year-end, for an average gain of 2.4%.
Also of note is that the Santa Claus Rally suffered only five losses in these years. But these four down SCRs in 1955, 1968, 1999, 2014, and 2023 were followed by flat years in 1956 and 2015, down years in 1969 and 2000, but solid gains in 2024. As Yale’s famous line states (2024 Almanac page 116 and 2025 Almanac page 118): “If Santa Claus Should Fail To Call, Bears May Come to Broad and Wall.”
Limited Time Holiday Season Offer! Best Price Available
2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac Holiday Sale
MiM and Daily Recap
The ES traded up to 6025.00 on Globex and opened Tuesday’s regular session at 6018.50. After the open, the ES traded 6017.25, rallied 7.75 points to 6025.00 at 9:40, and then sold off 10 points to 6015.25. It rallied 8.2 points at 9:52, before dropping 15.75 points and tapping a 2nd low of 6011.25 at 10:20.
From there, it rallied 18.25 points to 6029.50 at 11:56. After that, it dropped 8.25 points to 6021.25 at 12:28, followed by an 11-point rally to 6032.25 at 1:08. A pullback of 5.5 points took it down to 6026.75 at 1:24.
Following this pullback, the ES rallied 8 points to another new high of 6034.75 at 2:08. After reaching the high, the ES sold off 11.75 points to 6023.00 at 2:20, then rallied again, climbing to 6042.25. It traded to a new high of 6044.00 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $5B to buy and closed the cash session at 6037.00 at 4:00 pm.
After 4:00, the ES traded 6036.75 at 4:06, before moving to 6041.75, finishing up 35 points or +0.58%. The NQ settled at 20,998.75, up 118.75 points or +0.57%. The YM settled at 44,975.00, up 149 points or +0.33%, while the RTY settled at 2,437.20, down 13.80 points or -0.56%.
In the end, it was a buy fest, with the exception of the RTY. For the ES, the session had an overall tone of “buy every pullback.” Regarding the ES’s overall trade, as expected, volume dropped to 1.27 million contracts traded.
Technical Edge
Fair Values for November 27, 2024:
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SP: 18.3
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NQ: 68.49
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Dow: 117.65
VIX: 14.13 (Down)
Daily Market Recap 📊
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NYSE Breadth: 37% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 43% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 42% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 34% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 39% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 37% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 157 / 33
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 193 / 96
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NYSE TRIN: 0.92
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Nasdaq TRIN: 0.87
Weekly Market 📈
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NYSE Breadth: 64% Upside Volume
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Nasdaq Breadth: 67% Upside Volume
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Total Breadth: 66% Upside Volume
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NYSE Advance/Decline: 72% Advance
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Nasdaq Advance/Decline: 67% Advance
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Total Advance/Decline: 69% Advance
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NYSE New Highs/New Lows: 394 / 140
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Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows: 460 / 518
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NYSE TRIN: 1.42
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Nasdaq TRIN: 1.05
Guest Posts
PTG David: Polaris Trading Group
Prior Session wasCycle Day 1 Price established an early low @ 5976.25 during GBX session, below prior low @ 5982.50. Bulls viewed this weakness to BTFD, establishing clear dominance, as price rallied into the RTH session, fulfilling the initial cycle target (6020) and closing on the highs of the day. Range for this session was 67 handles on 1.230M contracts exchanged.
For a more detailed recap of the prior trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 11.26.24
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Transition into Cycle Day 2:: Having closed on the highs of the day, bullish momentum may extend price higher, though we would normally be looking for some consolidation for CD2.
Final full day of trading ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday as bulls are gunning for a new All-Time High to “bring home the turkey!”
YOU KNOW THE DRILL! Stay Aligned!
Wash, Rinse, Repeat!
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading:
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6035, initially targets 6050–6055 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6035, initially targets 6025–6020 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6035
PVA Low Edge = 6014
Prior POC = 6021
ES (Profile)
Thanks for reading, PTGDavid
Trading Room Summaries
Polaris Trading Group Summary – Tuesday, November 26, 2024
Pre-Market Overview:
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Cycle Day 1 (CD1): David identified the CD1 low early in the Globex session, marking a strong rally setup.
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Key overnight support was tested at 5975, followed by a reclaim of the prior low (5982.50), signalling a Whiplash Long setup.
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The pre-RTH target of 6020 was fulfilled, setting the stage for further upward momentum during the RTH session.
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Key Trade Setup: The Whiplash:
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A “Look Below and Fail/Reversal” structure provided an example trade aligned with bullish market conditions.
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Strategy involved buying after the reclaim of 5982.50 and the first pullback structure, a textbook PTG approach.
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David emphasized how this could repeat during RTH, showcasing the importance of recognizing patterns.
Market Action During RTH:
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Bullish Structure Maintained:
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Price steadily moved toward and fulfilled the Upper Target Zone (6015–6025), as forecasted in the morning briefing.
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Patience with long positions was crucial, as the market exhibited a slow grind upward.
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Discussions & Lessons:
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Traders discussed levels such as Friday’s high (5993) and technical areas like VWAP, reinforcing the importance of context in decision-making.
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David reiterated the importance of following the system’s edge, focusing on execution rather than outcomes.
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Afternoon Notes:
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Market dynamics required adapting to the slower rhythms, reinforcing flexibility in trading.
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David highlighted a significant Market-on-Close (MOC) buy imbalance of $5.1 billion, suggesting strong bullish sentiment into the close.
Lessons Learned:
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Trust in the System: Wins and losses are part of the edge. A trader’s role is to execute accurately and let probabilities work.
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Adjusting to Market Rhythms: Understanding the day’s tempo is key—grinding uptrends demand patience and careful entries.
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Continuous Learning: The day’s “Whiplash” example showcased how to adapt familiar setups to different timeframes and conditions.
Final Remarks:
The session emphasized disciplined execution, strategic patience, and adaptation to market rhythms. The day ended successfully with targets met and key lessons reinforced. The team is well-prepared for the next session, as outlined in the Daily Trade Strategy for Wednesday.
Discovery Trading Group Room Preview – November 27, 2024
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Morning Market Recap and Outlook
Market Performance:
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The S&P 500 and Dow closed at record highs, with the Nasdaq 100 climbing 0.6%.
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Amgen (AMGN) weighed on the Dow, dropping 12% initially after underwhelming weight-loss drug data, before recovering to a 5% decline.
Key Developments:
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Federal Reserve: The Fed’s Tuesday release reinforced a gradual approach to rate cuts, contingent on economic strength, with concerns over potential inflation resurgence. Core PCE Price Index data is due at 10:00 AM ET.
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Tariffs: Former President Trump’s tariff threats on Mexico and Canada pressured automakers, with GM (-8.5%), Stellantis (-5.5%), and Ford (-2.3%) falling sharply. European automakers were also hit.
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Apple (AAPL): CEO Tim Cook reiterated the importance of Chinese operations, warning tariffs on Chinese imports could raise product costs for U.S. consumers.
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Oil Impact: A 25% tariff on Canadian oil could increase U.S. gas prices by $0.25–$0.75/gallon, particularly in key regions, while potentially redirecting Canadian and Mexican oil to Asia.
Economic Calendar Highlights:
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A packed schedule includes GDP, Claims, Durable Goods, Goods Trade Balance, and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30 AM ET; Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET; Core PCE Price Index, Pending Home Sales, Personal Income/Savings at 10:00 AM ET; and Oil data at 10:30 AM ET.
Market Sentiment:
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Volatility: Expected to decline post-data release as traders head into a 4-day Thanksgiving weekend.
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Whale Activity: Heavy overnight institutional selling of ES futures signals bearish sentiment ahead of morning data and the holiday break.
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Technical Levels: The ES is in the middle of its intermediate uptrend channel but failed to test the short-term channel top (6069/74s) on Tuesday, leaving bears room to push lower today. Key resistance: 6069/74s, 6125/30s; Key support: 5968/73s, 5861/66s.
Market Closure Reminder:
U.S. markets will close on Thursday for Thanksgiving and open for a half session on Friday.
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ES -Week to Week
The bulls are playing a strong hand using seasonal and holiday volume to establish that +6000 area as their own. A close above 6040 today would show continued strength. Friday is ½ a day and Thursday is only Globex trading so volumes will be light. Top of the BB sits at 6071 right now so that is reachable. The MOC yesterday was quite strong as last bit of sideline cash is coming in for November. A close below 5980 would challenge the bulls and would be a moment to pause and think.
NQ – Week to Week
NQ is taking a slightly different path, not able to capture their 21000 level, a close and hold above that bodes well for December and EOY. An approach to 20500 and below would be cause to rethink.
Calendars
Today
Important Upcoming
Earnings
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
This post goes out as an email to our subscribers every day and is posted for free here around 2 PM ET. To get your real-time copy, sign up for the free or premium version here: Opening Print Subscribe.
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