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Here’s a quick Opening Print update/recap of the recent action to get you started:
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Taking Profits & Trading AAPL, NVDA, AMD, QQQ, GOOGL
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Our View
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Things pretty much went as planned yesterday. As the week winds down, it’s not just the month-end for March and quarter-end for Q1, it’s also the first trading days of April.
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On Tuesday, Our Lean was to sell the rallies and yesterday, it was to buy the pullbacks and look for higher prices. I expect more of the same for today. I hear a lot of stuff, but I don’t want to clog things up with other people’s ideas…
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I have learned over the years that when you call the markets correctly and make money, it’s best to keep a low profile because as soon as you think you know what’s going to happen next, you end up on the wrong side. I just take one day at a time and tune out the noise as best I can.
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Our Lean
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From Tuesday’s low to Wednesday’s close, the ES has rallied almost 80 points and is up 125 points from Friday’s low. The question today is, can it rally again (making it the 5th daily gain in the last 6 days)? I think so, but two things:
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I don’t think it will go up as much as the last few days, and
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I think there is a chance the dips could be larger pullbacks.
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Our lean is to sell the early rips and buy the pullback. Yesterday’s largest pullback was about 16 points. I think today could be double that — and possibly even more.
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The levels we will be paying attention to on the upside are 4074, 4090 and 4115-20. On the downside, watch 4060, then 4040-45 (which was big resistance for weeks until yesterday’s late-day push).
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MiM and Daily Recap
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The ES traded up to 4045.50 on Globex and opened Wednesday’s regular session at 4044.50. After the open the ES chopped its way up to 4047.75 at 10:05 — the morning high. After that the ES pulled back to 4032 and for the next 90 minutes rallied up to a lower high at 4046.50, pulled back to 4039.75 at 1:00 and then rallied up to a new high at 4049.50 before selling off down to 4037.25 at 2:02. It was that low that set up the afternoon buy program that pushed the ES up to 4053.25 at 3:00.
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From there, it pulled back to 4046.25 and then rallied up to a 4058.50 at 3:20, pulled back to the 4053 area at 3:40 as the early imbalance showed small buys and traded ~4060 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $952 million to buy. The ES traded 4058.75 on the 4:00 cash close and settled at 4058 on the 5:00 futures close, up 51.5 points or +1.29% on the day.
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In the end, there is little doubt about T+2 and the stock mark-ups. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm on Globex and firm during the day session. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was higher at 1.327 million contracts traded.
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Technical Edge —
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Can we consider yesterday an “80/80” day, where NYSE breadth and Advancers both topped 80%? I don’t know. You technically could, but it won’t really matter unless we get another 80/80 day today.
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Speaking of which, equities are trying to push higher in the early go. If we’re lucky, we’ll get off another round of trims in tech and look to play the evolving range in the S&P. Remember, jobless claims and GDP readings are out at 8:30 ET.
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S&P 500 — ES
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Bulls continue to boost the ES and are doing so again in Globex as we clear last week’s high.
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Key Pivot: ~4060
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Upside Levels: 4074 (weekly-up), 4090, 4115-20
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Downside levels: 4060, 4040-45, 4032, 4020
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SPY
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Going weekly-up in the pre-market. Let’s see if it can hold above it (at ~$402.50).
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Key Pivot: $402.50 (weekly-up)
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Upside Levels (SPY): $403.75 to $404, $407.50
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Downside Levels (SPY): $402.50 (weekly-up), $401.50 (y’day high), $400, $398.75.
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SPX
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Downtrend resistance and the 50-day moving average are two key measures bulls would like to see regained.
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Key Pivot: ~4040 (last week’s high)
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Upside Levels (SPY): 4047-4050, 4078-4080
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Downside Levels (SPY): 4040 (last week’s high), 4015, 4000, 3979
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NQ
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Nice hold of the 10-day & 12,700 level. Fishing for 13,080+!
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Russell — RTY
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Keep an eye on that 1805 to 1810 area. There we have the declining 21-day moving average and last week’s high. An early push to this area could be met by sellers.
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Open Positions
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Bold are the trades with recent updates.
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Italics show means the trade is closed.
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Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be B/E or better stops.)
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** = previous trade setup we are stalking.
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FSLR down to a runners.
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AAPL — Long from $157. Trimmed $160-$161.
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Down to ½ if we see $161.75 to $162. B/e Stop
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GOOGL — Trimmed ⅓ on opening push as GOOGL tried and failed to go daily-up.
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Down to ½ if we see $103.25 to $104. Stop at B/E.
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NVDA — Long from ~$259 & trimmed $267 and $270 (down to ½)
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Small trim at $272 or aggressive bulls can try for $274-75. Either way, down to runners if we see 275+
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QQQ — Long from $306 (roughly the 10-day) — trimmed down to ½ on that push to $311+
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Trim more ~$314.50+ (pre-market is fine). B/E stop
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AMD — I tried a cash flow trade in AMD and was quickly stopped out as per rules.
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If swinging this, trimmed around $96.50. Stop is clearly defined near $92.50, but I would move to B/E stop now and look to trim $97.50+
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TRIP — short from 18.90 — out roughly ½ on Friday’s dip.
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B/E Stop. Looking for a break of 18.25 before next trim.
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Go-To Watchlist
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Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders
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Relative strength leaders → Tech remains absolutely the strongest group lately.
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NVDA, AMD
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CRM, GOOGL, AVGO
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MSFT, AAPL
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PANW, FTNT
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FSLR → so strong. We’ll look to get another long in this at some point.
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GE → love this name if we can get a test of the 10-week ema
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DKS
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AQUA
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ULTA & LULU
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AEHR → volatile!
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MELI
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Economic Calendar
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Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
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Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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