Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

DATA/HEADLINES:  8:30ET Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Initial Jobless Claims; 9:45ET S&P Global US Manufacturing
PMI, S&P Global US Services PMI, 10:00ET Leading Index, Existing Home Sales, Yellen testifies in Congress on Biden’s budget; 12:00ET Fed’s Barr speaks; 1:00ET US to sell $16 billion 10-year TIPS

BOE LEAVES KEY RATE AT 5.25%; EST. 5.250%

TODAY’S HIGHLIGHTS and News:  

• Reddit begins trading after selling 22 million shares at $34, the top of its marketed range
  
• Biden cancels $6B in student loan debt; Higher education debt has tripled since the 2008 financial crisis
• The DOJ will sue Apple in federal court as soon as today
  
• The House will vote Friday on government funding package
• YEMEN HOUTHIS TELL CHINA, RUSSIA THEIR SHIPS WON’T BE TARGETED
  

Global stocks rallied to all-time highs, with tech and commodity stocks leading the advance, as investors grow more confident on the path for lower interest rates.
Switzerland became the first developed economy to cut interest rates this cycle, underscoring investors’ view that global rate cuts are coming soon. The Bank of England wraps up a bumper week for global central banks today but is expected to keep rates steady.
Market pricing currently reflects expectations that the Fed and the European Central Bank will start cutting rates at their June meetings.

EQUITIES:  

US equity futures extended gains after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that recent high inflation readings had not changed the underlying “story” of slowly easing price pressures
as the central bank stayed on track for three interest rate cuts this year and indicated that solid economic growth will continue. US small-caps, which typically do well when the economy is expanding, had its best session in a month. The Justice Department
is poised to sue Apple as soon as today, accusing the company of violating antitrust laws by blocking rivals from accessing hardware and software features of its iPhone. Meanwhile, the company may face a full-blown investigation under the EU’s new Digital
Markets Act. Elon Musk’s Neuralink livestreamed an update with its first brain implant patient Wednesday, showing a quadriplegic man who was able to play video games and online chess using his mind.       

Futures ahead of the bell: E-Mini S&P +0.5%, Nasdaq +1%, Russell 2000 +0.7%, DJI +0.3%

In pre-market trading, Micron Technology (MU) gained 18% on the back of a higher-than-expected revenue forecast and strong demand for AI hardware. Astera Labs (ALAB) rises 4.1% and is
set to extend Wednesday’s 72% gain as the company’s initial public offering topped expectations to raise $713 million. Broadcom (AVGO) climbs 2% as analysts are positive about the chipmaker’s opportunities following its AI event. Designer Brands (DBI) drops
13% after the owner of DSW stores issued weaker guidance for full-year earnings.  Five Below (FIVE) falls 11% after the discount retailer’s full-year net sales guidance failed to meet expectations. Guess (GES) advances 12% after the clothing company reported
4Q adjusted earnings per share and sales above consensus estimates. Li Auto (LI) ADRs slip 7.7% after the Chinese EV maker reduced its 1Q vehicle deliveries target. Lufax ADRs (LU) jump 42% after the Chinese online lender said its board has approved a special
dividend of approximately 10 billion yuan.

European gauges paired some of their early gains after euro-area manufacturing data missed estimates. S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index showed sustained weakness in Germany and
France — the bloc’s top two economies. The euro area’s flash manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 45.7 in March versus expectations of 47. The services gauge rose to 49.9. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained as much as 1% to hit a new record before paring
gains to 0.5%. The rate-sensitive real estate and technology subindexes outperform. ASML Holding NV led chipmakers higher, soaring almost 5%, helped by a robust revenue forecast from US peer Micron Technology. Stoxx 600 +0.5%, DAX +0.4%, CAC -0.1%, FTSE 100
+1.3%. Basic Resources +2.5%, Tech +2.4%, REITs +2.2%. Healthcare -0.3%, Insurance -0.2%.

Asian stocks rose, powered by technology companies after the Federal Reserve’s supportive comments on the outlook for US interest-rate cuts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 2% with
Taiwan Semiconductor, Toyota Motor and Samsung Electronics among the biggest contributors to the move. The region’s semiconductor shares gained after Micron Technology gave a surprisingly strong revenue forecast for the current quarter.  Mainland Chinese shares
skipped the risk-on rally in the region, while stocks in Hong Kong made sharp gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at a fresh record high as the country’s exports grew for the third consecutive month. Kospi +2.4%, Taiwan +2.1%, Nikkei 225 +2%, Hang Seng Index
+1.9%, Singapore +1.3%, ASX 200 +1.1%, Sensex +0.8%. CSI 300 -0.1%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries are richer by 3bp to 5bp across the curve, extending Wednesday’s post-Fed rally. US Treasuries caught a decent bid off the surprise rate cut by the Swiss
and the move lower in European core yields. Fed policymakers kept their outlook for three cuts in 2024 and moved toward slowing the pace of reducing their bond holdings, suggesting they aren’t alarmed by a recent rebound in price pressures. The BoE leaves
rates unchanged, however UK 2yr is lower by 14bps and UK 10yr is down 9bps with dovish tone overall. US session includes several economic indicators and 10Y TIPS auction. 10-year around 4.23%. IG dollar issuance slate is empty so far, after no offerings Wednesday,
however the $501 billion raised so far this year is the fastest pace ever.  

METALS: 
   

Gold prices spiked to a record in early Asia trade, surpassing $2,200 for the first time after the Fed maintained its view on easing. Gold’s gains over the past five
weeks have been underpinned by long-standing supports including heightened geopolitical risks and buying by central banks, led by China. Spot gold 1%, silver -0.4%.  

ENERGY:   

Oil prices edged lower, on track for back-to-back declines following EIA data that showed somewhat smaller than expected drop in US crude inventories. The drawdown
is attributed to increased exports and heightened refinery activity, with gasoline inventories also falling for a seventh consecutive week. The sustained drawdown in inventories, coupled with ongoing supply concerns due to geopolitical tensions, is likely
to keep oil prices supported. A record volume of fuel oils loaded from Russia is set to reach Asian nations including China, India and Singapore in March, according to preliminary data from Kpler. WTI -0.5%, Brent -0.5%, US Nat Gas -1%, RBOB -0.6%.

CURRENCIES:   

In currency markets, the Swiss franc tumbled after a surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank. The SNB lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, its first
rate cut in nine years.  The move comes after Swiss inflation dipped to 1.2% in February. Sterling was slightly lower ahead of a Bank of England policy decision. The yen bounced and blowout job numbers in Australia rallied the Aussie$.  Australian unemployment
fell from 4.1% to 3.7%. BoJ’s Ueda said the Japanese central bank saw the risk of potentially having to raise interest rates rapidly if it waited too long.  Norway’s central bank left borrowing costs at a 16-year high and said investors may need to wait at
least half a year for any prospective easing. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.3%, EURUSD -0.1%, USDJPY -0.1%, AUDUSD +0.2%, NZDUSD -0.1%, USDCHF +0.7%.

Spot Bitcoin -0.3%, Ethereum +2%.

TECHNICAL LEVELS:  

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Braze (BRZE) Raised to Buy at UBS; PT $62
• Broadcom (AVGO) Raised to Outperform at Cowen; PT $1,500
• DHT Holdings (DHT) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $14
• First American (FAF) Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT $69
• Frontline PLC (FRO) Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $30
• Kingsoft Cloud (KC) ADRs Raised to Accumulate at CLSA; PT $4.40
• ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $5
• Revolve Group (RVLV) Raised to Outperform at Cowen; PT $25
• SEMrush (SEMR) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $17
• Sprinklr (CXM) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $19
• ZTO Express (ZTO) ADRs Raised to Buy at BofA
• Downgrades
• Centene (CNC) Cut to Equal-Weight at Stephens; PT $85
• Fusion Pharmaceuticals (FUSN) Cut to Neutral at B Riley; PT $23
• HubSpot (HUBS) Cut to Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $520
• Salesforce Inc (CRM) Cut to Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Initiations
• Adobe (ADBE) Reinstated Underweight at KeyBanc; PT $445
• Ameriprise (AMP) Rated New Market Perform at Raymond James
• Amplitude (AMPL) Re-Initiated Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Bridgebio (BBIO) Resumed Outperform at Raymond James; PT $45
• First Citizens (FCNCA) Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT $1,950
• Headwater Exploration Inc (HWX CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$9
• Janux Therapeutics (JANX) Rated New Buy at BTIG; PT $62
• Klaviyo (KVYO) Rated New Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• Microsoft (MSFT) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $490
• Neurogene Inc (NGNE) Rated New Outperform at William Blair; PT $61
• NEXTracker (NXT) Rated New Outperform at Baird; PT $71
• Oracle (ORCL) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $150
• ServiceNow (NOW) Re-Initiated Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $1,000
• Surge Energy (SGY CN) Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$10
• Tamarack Valley Energy (TVE CN) Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT C$4
• WalkMe (WKME) Re-Initiated Sector Weight at KeyBanc
• ZoomInfo (ZI) Rated New Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $20

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG