Daily Game Plan

TODAY’S GAME PLAN:  from the trading
desk, this is not research

TODAY’S ECONOMIC DATA:   8:30ET Trump on CNBC, Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity, Retail Sales; 10:00ET
Business Inventories, Pending Home Sales, Fed Chair Nominee Warsh’s Confirmation Hearing

Highlights and News:  

• US positive on Iran deal but talks still uncertain as ceasefire end nears
• IRAN HASN’T YET SENT DELEGATION TO PAKISTAN: STATE TV
• QATAR SAYS COMMUNICATING WITH ALL SIDES IN ISLAMABAD TALKS: AJ
• US Forces Board Sanctioned Tanker In Indo-Pacific
• Warsh Heads for the Hill for Fed Chair Confirmation Hearing
• Amazon to invest additional billions in Anthropic
• AI optimism pushing stocks despite Iran risks
• US is allocating $4.7 billion to renovate NYC’s Penn Station and Washington’s Union Station

Global stocks edged higher on hopes that the US has made some progress in efforts to arrange a second round of talks with Iran, ahead of Wednesday’s looming ceasefire
deadline. The US has expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran will go ahead in Pakistan and a senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering joining, but significant uncertainty remains. President Trump said Vice President, JD Vance, is ready to
leave for negotiations in Islamabad, but threatened to return to conflict if Iran doesn’t make a deal. Pakistan officials say the US Delegation will arrive in Islamabad on Wednesday morning. Iran has still not indicated a time of arrival according to state
media. Iranian state television (IRIB) and other official Iranian sources explicitly stated today that no Iranian delegation—primary, secondary, preparatory, or otherwise—has departed for or arrived in Islamabad for the anticipated second round of talks. Sources
told CNN the US believes there is a split between the Iranian negotiation team and the revolutionary guard.

EQUITIES: 

US equity futures climb as Iran weighs cease-fire talks with the US. Solid earnings, the AI narrative and positioning are all supporting the market. Asset managers’ exposure to S&P 500
futures has climbed to about $357 billion in net positioning, surpassing a previous record set just before the start of the Iran conflict, according to the latest CFTC data.  Three weeks of net-positive flows have added back around $40 billion of exposure.
The Citi US earnings revisions index has moved back into positive territory after two negative weekly prints. Of the 49 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts’ forecasts. UnitedHealth’s stock surges pre-market as profit beats expectations
by widest margin in five years, leading Dow futures outperformance. Retail sales and Warsh’s confirmation hearing will be in focus later

Futures ahead of the data/bell: E-Mini S&P +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.4%, Russell 2000 +0.4%, DJI +0.6%

In pre-market trading, Apple (AAPL) shares are mostly unchanged after the iPhone maker said hardware chief John Ternus will be its next CEO.
Amazon.com (AMZN) rises 3% after the cloud-computing and e-commerce giant said it is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic and may inject $20 billion more over time. Amazon suppliers rise on Amazon’s investment in Anthropic. Marvell Technology
(MRVL) +2%, Credo Technology (CRDO) +5% and Astera Labs (ALAB) +8%. 3M Co. (MMM) slips 2% after the maker of Post-it notes and auto maintenance products reported adjusted organic growth that missed estimates. Alaska Air (ALK) slips 1.2% after the carrier announced
it will be suspending full-year guidance due to higher fuel costs. Avis Budget (CAR) rises 7% and is set to extend gains for a fourth consecutive session.
Short interest in the company as a percentage of its free float is currently at 62%,
according to S3 Partners data.  Tractor Supply (TSCO) falls 5% after the retailer reported comparable sales for the first quarter that missed.
UnitedHealth (UNH) climbs 7% after reporting first quarter profit that blew past Wall Street expectations. The company also boosted its outlook for the year, a sign of the health conglomerate’s progress toward rebuilding credibility with investors after
a collapse a year ago.

European gauges are mixed in choppy trading as investors monitored developments in US-Iran negotiations. Technology and insurance names outperform, while food and beverage
names fell, led by Royal Unibrew (-23%) which said its partnership deal with PepsiCo in several nations will expire at the end of 2028. BF shares rise as much as 12% to a record high after the Italian agriculture services company received a voluntary takeover
offer from Arum and Dompè Holding at a significant premium to Monday’s close. THG shares rise as much as 9.8% after the online retailer said it delivered its best 1Q revenue growth since 2021. Crest Nicholson shares tumble as much as 45% to a record low as
the UK homebuilder cuts full-year earnings guidance due to softening land sales. AB Foods shares drop as much as 7.1% after the company downgraded expectations for its Sugar business. On the data front, UK employment rate came in at 4.9% which was below the
5.2% expected and German ZEW was much weaker than forecasted. Stoxx 600 +0.05%, DAX +0.4%, CAC -0.25%, FTSE 100 -0.15%. Technology +1.1%, Insurance +0.9%, Utilities +0.9%. Defense -3.1%, Food & Bev -0.9%, Healthcare -0.8%.

Shares in Asia rose as optimism over a potential resumption of negotiations ahead of a looming Middle East ceasefire deadline lifted sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific
Index gained 0.7% to its highest level in seven weeks. Technology megacaps including TSMC and SK Hynix were among the top contributors. Kospi hit a new record high after strong exports data complements popular AI trade momentum. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
has lagged the S&P 500 gauge since the war began given the higher exposure of Asian economies to oil imports from the Middle East. Still, AI is back in focus and with Asia tech being a core supplier of hardware. Shares of South Korea’s top battery makers jumped
Tuesday after clinching deals with Mercedes-Benz Group AG, providing a welcome boost to a sector that has been hit by the slowing global transition to electric vehicles. Indonesian stocks slid after MSCI extended the review period to June as it assesses the
impact of recent regulatory reforms. Kospi +2.7%, Taiwan +1.7%, Sensex +1%, Nikkei 225 +0.9%, Hang Seng Index +0.5%, CSI 300 +0.2%, Singapore +0.2%, Thailand +0.1%, Philippines +0.05%. ASX 200 -0.05%, Topix -0.2%, Vietnam -0.2%, Indonesia -0.5%.

FIXED INCOME: 
 

Treasuries see subtle bear flattening move with long-end yields broadly unchanged on the day and front-end cheaper by around 3bp, tightening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads
by 3bp and 1.5bp on the day. Price action has been muted as oil futures fluctuate between gains and losses. 10-year yield is unchanged at 4.25%. Session focus includes Kevin Warsh scheduled to appear before the Senate Banking Committee, while data includes
March retail sales. Treasury auctions include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening on Wednesday and $26 billion 5-year TIPS Thursday. 

METALS: 

Gold slips, weighed down by a slightly firmer ‌dollar as lingering uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks kept investors cautious. Markets remain “on edge” over whether
fresh peace talks would materialize before the ceasefire expires. The US expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran would go ahead in Pakistan and a senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering joining. Rio Tinto’s copper output climbed 9% in the
first quarter on the Oyu Tolgoi mine ramp-up. Spot gold -0.6%, Silver -0.7%, Copper futures +0.15%. 

ENERGY:   

Oil fluctuated as traders were looking for signs that Iran will attend talks with the US. Iran was said to be sending a team to Pakistan for the negotiations, although
it wasn’t clear who or when they would arrive. Meanwhile, Hormuz flows remain at a virtual standstill, with three vessels attempting to transit early Tuesday. US forces boarded the sanctioned tanker M/T Tifani in the Indo-Pacific yesterday, escalating a naval
crackdown on Iran-linked shipping. The vessel, tied to Iran and known for frequently changing flags, was last tracked in the Indian Ocean between Sri Lanka and Malaysia. The operation was described as a right-of-visit boarding carried out without incident.
NBC, citing MarineTraffic data reports that only 12 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. So far, the conflict has caused the loss of a billion barrels of supply, an amount that could grow to 1.5 billion barrels if it continues, Trafigura
Group’s Chief Economist said. Brent traded near $95 a barrel after gaining 5.6% on Monday. WTI crude futures consolidate around $87.50 with all eyes on prospect of more US-Iran talks ahead of Wednesday’s ceasefire expiry.  WTI +0.2%, Brent -0.2%, US Nat Gas
-0.2%, RBOB +0.6%.

CURRENCIES: 

In currency markets, the dollar edges higher as Iran ceasefire deadline approaches, with most of FX in tight ranges. Kiwi outshines G-10 peers after New Zealand yields
rise on CPI beat. Euro slips as German investor optimism dropped to the lowest level in more than three years as the Iran war eats away at a rebound in Europe’s biggest economy. The Bank of Japan is leaning toward keeping its policy rate unchanged next week
due to uncertainties from the war. Officials still favor raising rates but see little need to rush with the economic outlook potentially shifting due to the situation in the Middle East, sources said. US$ Index +0.1%, GBPUSD -0.1%, EURUSD -0.15%, USDJPY +0.15%,
AUDUSD -0.2%, NZDUSD +0.35%, USDCHF +0.1%, USDCAD +0.05%, USDSEK +0.1%, USDNOK ~flat.

Spot Bitcoin +0.2%, Spot Ethereum -0.7%. 

Colors within the report:
Green is always the 200 period (day, week).
Red is always 21,
Blue = 50,
Brown =
100 *Stars have added importance 

• Upgrades
• Arrowhead Pharma (ARWR) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $100
• Ball (BALL) Raised to Outperform at Raymond James; PT $73
• Borr Drilling (BORR) Raised to Buy at Fearnley; PT $6.80
• Colgate-Palmolive (CL) Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn
• CrowdStrike (CRWD) Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $525
• DHT Holdings (DHT) Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT $22
• Frontline PLC (FRO) Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT $43.80
• Intel (INTC) Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $95
• Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $60
• Intl Seaways (INSW) Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT $93
• Netflix (NFLX) Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $110
• Nordic American Tankers (NAT) Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities
• Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO) Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT $70
• Ramaco (METC) Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT $15
• Robert Half (RHI) Raised to Outperform at William Blair
• Downgrades
• Amphastar (AMPH) Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $22
• Exxon (XOM) Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
• Graphic Packaging (GPK) Cut to Underperform at Raymond James
• Mohawk Industries (MHK) Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $118
• Passage Bio (PASG) Cut to Neutral at Wedbush; PT $8
• Cut to Neutral at Chardan Capital Markets; PT $7
• Sila Realty Trust (SILA) Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $31
• Spotify (SPOT) Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT $595
• TopBuild (BLD) Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $496
• Valero Energy (VLO) Cut to Underperform at Wolfe
• Xylem (XYL) Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT $132
• Initiations
• AbbVie (ABBV) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $262
• Achieve Life Sciences (ACHV) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $13
• Adma Biologics (ADMA) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $21
• Ambiq Micro (AMBQ) Rated New Outperform at Northland; PT $44
• Ameren (AEE) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $126
• American Electric Power (AEP) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $148
• American Water (AWK) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $137
• Amgen (AMGN) Rated New Hold at Canaccord; PT $366
• Aritzia (ATZ CN) Rated New Buy at William O’Neil
• Astera Labs (ALAB) Rated New Neutral at UBS; PT $180
• Atmos Energy (ATO) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $195
• Cava Group (CAVA) Rated New Sell at Northcoast; PT $63
• CenterPoint Energy (CNP) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $48
• CMS Energy (CMS) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $86
• Commvault Systems (CVLT) Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank
• Couche-Tard (ATD CN) Rated New Buy at Melius; PT C$105
• Custom Truck (CTOS) Rated New Overweight at Cantor; PT $11
• Dominion Energy (D) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $67
• DTE Energy (DTE) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $165
• Duke Energy (DUK) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $142
• Dynatrace (DT) Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $45
• Edison International (EIX) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $82
• Elastic (ESTC) Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $50
• Entergy (ETR) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $130
• Exelon (EXC) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $50
• First Tracks Biotherapeutics (TRAX) Rated New Buy at UBS; PT $45
• Ionis Pharma (IONS) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $110
• Leading Edge Materials (LEM CN) Rated New Corporate at Edison Investment Research
• ONE Gas (OGS) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $99
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT $215
• PG&E (PCG) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $23
• Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $108
• PSEG (PEG) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $91
• Reddit (RDDT) Rated New Buy at DA Davidson; PT $200
• Rubrik (RBRK) Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank; PT $70
• Scholar Rock (SRRK) Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT $62
• Sempra (SRE) Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $108
• Simpson (SSD) Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT $205
• Solaris Energy (SEI) Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $110.80
• Southern Co (SO) Reinstated Hold at Truist Secs; PT $103
• Strive (ASST) Rated New Buy at HC Wainwright; PT $36
• Surrozen (SRZN) Rated New Buy at TD Cowen
• Teekay Tankers (TNK) Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT $91
• Volatus Aerospace Inc (FLT CN) Reinstated Speculative Buy at Canaccord
• WEC Energy (WEC) Rated New Hold at Truist Secs; PT $124
• Xcel Energy (XEL) Reinstated Buy at Truist Secs; PT $95

Data sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, CQG

David Wienke