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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 February: ASX drops 0.25pc | UBS remains dovish on RBA | Gascoyne Resources releases exploration target |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 7 February: ASX sheds 0.5pc | CBA lifts cash rate forecast to 3.85pc; ARB dives | Australia’s rental market is as tough as it has ever been |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 07 FEBRUARY: US stocks extend losses | RBA poised to lift rates by 0.25pc | Will Newmont’s $24 billion Newcrest bid cause a gold takeover cascade? |

    $ up, cotton down, easy money.

    Jason Sen: Forex

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 February: ASX drops 0.25pc | UBS remains dovish on RBA | Gascoyne Resources releases exploration target |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 06 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise as investors hang hopes on a soft landing | After a successful $4.5 million cap raise and with cancer trial results to come, Kazia is optimistic for 2023 |

    Dollar dipsey doodle at 10150.

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    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

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    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

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    Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Power Contracts

    AP: US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks

    CME Group – US Independence Day Holiday Schedule: July 2-6, 2021

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 7 February: ASX sheds 0.5pc | CBA lifts cash rate forecast to 3.85pc; ARB dives | Australia’s rental market is as tough as it has ever been |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 07 FEBRUARY: US stocks extend losses | RBA poised to lift rates by 0.25pc | Will Newmont’s $24 billion Newcrest bid cause a gold takeover cascade? |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 February: ASX drops 0.25pc | UBS remains dovish on RBA | Gascoyne Resources releases exploration target |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 06 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise as investors hang hopes on a soft landing | After a successful $4.5 million cap raise and with cancer trial results to come, Kazia is optimistic for 2023 |

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 03 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise | Alphabet, Atlassian tumble on earnings | Aura gets 30-year guarantee for Mauritania uranium project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 January: ASX swings to loss | Retail sales plummet; Megaport sheds 25pc | Avecho Biotechnology progresses CBD softgel trials for insomnia treatment |

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
    • FEEDID-51
    • FEEDID-44
    • FEEDID-31
    • FEEDID-21
    • FEEDID-16
    • FEEDID-36
    • FEEDID-10
    • feedid-56
    • feedid-58
    • feedid-61
    • feedid-59
    • feedid-60
    • feedid-62
    • feedid-63
    • feedid-65
    • feedid-66
  • Charts

    Is half carry enough?

    Jason Sen: FX

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 7 February: ASX sheds 0.5pc | CBA lifts cash rate forecast to 3.85pc; ARB dives | Australia’s rental market is as tough as it has ever been |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 07 FEBRUARY: US stocks extend losses | RBA poised to lift rates by 0.25pc | Will Newmont’s $24 billion Newcrest bid cause a gold takeover cascade? |

    $ up, cotton down, easy money.

    Jason Sen: Forex

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 6 February: ASX drops 0.25pc | UBS remains dovish on RBA | Gascoyne Resources releases exploration target |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 06 FEBRUARY: ASX to rise as investors hang hopes on a soft landing | After a successful $4.5 million cap raise and with cancer trial results to come, Kazia is optimistic for 2023 |

    Dollar dipsey doodle at 10150.

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep
    Danny’s View:  Do We Have A Major Turn Coming?

    Danny’s View: Do We Have A Major Turn Coming?

    Danny’s View:  Blowout Jobs Report Has S&P On Its Heels

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    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

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    Danny’s View:  Markets Shrug Off Fed Worries

    Danny’s View: Markets Shrug Off Fed Worries

    Danny’s View:  All About What The Fed Says (Not What It Does)

    Danny’s View: All About What The Fed Says (Not What It Does)

    Taylor 3 Day Cycle – Polaris Trading Group

    Taylor 3 Day Cycle – Polaris Trading Group

    The Washington Post – US stocks open higher, putting market on track for 3rd gain

    Danny’s View: Starting The Week With A Needed Pullback

    Danny’s View:  Bulls Are In Control For Now

    Danny’s View: Bulls Are In Control For Now

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

    From the Desk of Wyckoff Trader:

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Danny’s View: Powell Comments On Tap As S&P Sits At Key Juncture

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
November 30, 2022
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Danny’s View:  Powell Comments On Tap As S&P Sits At Key Juncture
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AAPL is not telegraphing a good message on the charts.

Follow @MrTopStep and @BretKenwell on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable.

Don’t Forget: The Long-term performance of the S&P 500, some longer-term setups, and 5 red flags that showed up before the 2022 bear market. 

Our View

The days of zero borrowing cost are gone and so is borrowing money at 1% or 2% and investing it in the stock market. There are not many people that talk about this, but the stock market has delivered a lot of pain to retirees or someone on the verge of retirement. After all the QE following the credit crisis, most retirement accounts saw their best performance ever. From the Credit Crisis low to the S&P 500’s all-time high, the index gained 622%. The Nasdaq gained almost 1,200% in the same time frame. 

Low rates and the Fed’s infusion of billions of dollars into the economy helped power the move. Now with higher rates, tech sanctions, supply chain problems, chip shortages, and overvalued tech companies have caught up with the tech sector. I believe 7 tech companies make up 40% of the market capitalization of the Nasdaq. 

The bottom line: If tech remains under selling pressure — which I think it will — the ES will have a hard time holding the rallies. In short, the NQ steers the ES right now and the ES can’t go up until tech is done going down. 

Our Lean — Danny’s Take

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his speech to the Brookings Institution today at 1:30 ET and take questions. This will have the stock market’s attention today. 

I don’t know how this can be good, but we shall see. On Thursday, the latest jobless claims report and manufacturing-sector data are due out and the November jobs report comes out Friday. This means some rocky days ahead — AKA chop. 

Our Lean: It seems to me anytime the ES sells off under 3950, it’s a buy, but how long can this go on? I think today may change that. Our lean is for buying weakness in the first part of the day. That doesn’t mean I won’t be looking to sell some rips, but I want to go flat before Powell speaks. 

It is what it is, folks. Is this the best trading environment? Frankly, no. But you can’t do anything except trade what it’s front of you while waiting for a healthier environment to emerge. 

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES opened Tuesday’s regular session 3969, traded up to 3974.75 at 9:35, and sold off down to 3961 at 9:55. It then rallied up to 3981.75 at 10:30 and then dropped down to 3948.50 at 11:16 before rallying up to 3961.25 at 12:46 — aka chop. After the high, the ES sold off down to 3947.75 at 1:23 and rallied up to 3969.50 at 2:04 and then traded down to 3950.25 at 2:50 and up to 3963.75 at 3:36. The ES traded 3961.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $791 million to buy and traded 3961.25 on the 4:00 cash close. The ES settled at 3962.25 on the 5:00 futures close, down 8.25 points or 0.21% on the day. 

I hate to say it, but in the end, the NQ ruled over the ES (again). In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was weak but I thought it held up well. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, 1.448 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 73% Upside Volume
  • Advance/Decline: 57% Advance 
  • VIX: ~$22

We have a plethora of data today — everything from GDP data to JOLTs. But the big one is Powell’s 1:30 ET speech. 

The Fed’s tone remains hawkish, even though they are (seemingly) prepared to back off the rate hikes a bit. That will be bullish for stocks eventually, but the Fed wants to telegraph a clear message: They are not dovish. 

We’ll see how that impacts the tape today, which was quite choppy yesterday despite 73% upside volume on the NYSE. With the monthly jobs data due out tomorrow, it could be a choppy couple of days. 

S&P 500 — ES 

A lot is going to hinge on how the ES handles today’s data and Powell’s comments. I would preach patience. 

If we go with the KISS route, it’s really as simple as this: Above yesterday’s high (3990) without reversing lower opens the door back into 4000 and puts the 4050 area in play. 

A break of yesterday’s low (3941) opens the door down to the 3910 to 3920 area and the 21-day moving average. 

SPY — Daily

Daily up over $397.30 puts $400 to $402.30 in play. 

Daily down under $393.30 puts $390 and the 21-day moving average in play. 

The caveats here are: 

  1. On rotations, we need proof. Just a wick above/below the prior daily range is not enough. We need a push through either level and then need to hold said level.
  2. Powell’s comments have the potential to create a choppy session and/or false moves. Be prepared for afternoon headline risk. 

Dow 

Bend don’t break. The DIA held active support yesterday. Daily-up over $339.37 could put the bull-trade back in play. 

The only risk? Powell in the afternoon. A larger pullback to the $332 to $333 area has my interest if it holds the 21-day moving average. 

TLT

The TLT has been a huge win for us this month, as it has consistently climbed higher and higher. 

I want to see how it handles a dip to the 10-day ema, which it has not tested in 13 sessions. Bulls need to see the TLT hold the $100 to $100.50 area and the 50-day moving average. 

If support holds, the recent highs in the $103s are in play, followed by a push to ~$105.

The monthly chart is setting up for an inside month, giving bulls a potential inside-and-up month to work with starting Friday:

AAPL

Apple has not looked healthy whatsoever this week. Monday’s gap down tried to rally back above its key moving average and was rejected. On Tuesday it rotated lower. 

Now in no man’s land a bit, Apple needs to regain the $146 area or lower prices may be in store. The $133 to $135 area may offer a decent R/R for buyers. 

Go-To Watchlist

*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*

  • Numbered are the trades that are open. 
  • Bold are the trades with recent updates. 
  • Italics show means the trade is closed.

Open Positions — 

  1. TLT — Now ⅓ to ½ position here. Raise stops (B/E at minimum) and looking for $104.50 to $105 next.
    1. Also looking to refill on a dip to the $100 to 10-day ema area. 
  2. CCRN — down to ⅓ or less. Exit at $36+ or consider holding for $37.50 to $38. Stop at $32.
  3. QQQ — Just down to runners. #cheers
  4. DIA — Just down to runners, if you want. #Cheers
  5. Gold — A traction-less trade thus far, although we were able to cut ½ the position above B/E and get our exit about 1760.
    1. Can be down to ⅓ or less or out completely. Shoot for 1775 for the next trim.
  6. DXY (US Dollar) — position technically closed, but for those still short, let’s see if it retests this week’s low. Move stop-loss to just above this week’s high. 

Relative strength leaders →

  1. LNG 
  2. CAH 
  3. TJX 
  4. SBUX
  5. DE
  • CCRN
  • AMGN
  • GIS
  • REGN
  • CI
  • MCD
  • ENPH, FSLR — solar has strength 
  • VRTX
  • UNH
  • MRK
  • XLE — XOM, CVX, COP, BP, EOG, PXD (Weekly Charts)
  • SBUX

Economic Calendar

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.
Disclaimer: Charts and analyses are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice, and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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