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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

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    ‘Thin to Win’ Is Today’s Theme

    3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

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    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    24X5 Options Trading Begins Sunday, November 21

    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Gas Contracts

    CME Group Globex Labor Day Holiday Schedule

    Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Power Contracts

    AP: US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks

    CME Group – US Independence Day Holiday Schedule: July 2-6, 2021

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    • VIX

    The MIM Has Been Dominating the Sell Side

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

    Trending Tags

    • FEEDID-6
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  • Charts
    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 31 MAY: ASX hits two-month low as traders up bet for RBA rate rise | Vulcan Energy signs geothermal project agreement with car maker Stellantis |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 31 MAY: ASX to slide | Wall Street mixed, Tesla higher | UG2 resource upgrade positions Southern Palladium for a bright PGE future |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 30 MAY: ASX falls, dragged lower by energy and REIT’s | Sayona Mining raises $200m to accelerate North American Lithium project | Felix Gold begins drilling in historic Fairbanks district of Alaska |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 30 MAY: ASX to slip | S&P 500 futures point to further gains | ASX-listed Micro-X made a crucial bomb disposal breakthrough |

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep

    The MIM Has Been Dominating the Sell Side

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

    ‘Thin to Win’ Is Today’s Theme

    3 Lessons From My Mistake. Opex & Powell Are on Tap!

  • Education
    • All
    • Economics
    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
    • Trading Rules
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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: PINS Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Trading the S&P 500 and the S&P Futures

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Etsy Stock Tumbles

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Monthly Trading Time: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can Apple Stock Hit Record Highs?

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can GOOGL Stock Stay Up?

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Danny’s View: Starting The Week With A Needed Pullback

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
January 30, 2023
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The Washington Post – US stocks open higher, putting market on track for 3rd gain
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We need some individual stocks to reset on the long side.

Follow @MrTopStep and @BretKenwell on Twitter and please share if you find our work valuable.

Our View

The long trade worked, but the late price action was a little disappointing for the bulls. I think most of the rally was just part of an options squeeze and gave us yet another “Fry-day” result. 

This week will be all about the Fed and all about earnings. 

We’ll hear from Meta on Wednesday, then Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet on Thursday. Those will be the highlight, as the four combined represent just over $5 trillion worth of market caps. 

On the flip side, we’ll get the Fed’s FOMC announcement on Wednesday afternoon at 2 pm ET. This time though, the plans seem more telegraphed. The market is pricing in a 99.9% chance of a 25 basis point increase and the Fed has been vocal about getting rates up to about 5% and then going into a “wait and see” mode. 

Our Lean

I was in the Keys for a wedding and had a 70-point lead in 2 ES contracts. However, a fellow trader mentioned the late-day weakness in the ES and I checked in with the Mr. Top Step chat room to see what was going on.  

The ES had dropped 25 points and the Dow wiped out all its gains. My friend thought the ES was going to be down hard on Monday and I did too, so I got out on the close and this morning the ES is down 35 points. 

Our Lean: Sell the rips with tight stops. There may be an opening long trade as the S&P comes into the week offside, but I want to get a look at that idea just before the open. If we get that pop shortly after the open, my gut says to sell it.  

MiM and Daily Recap

The ES traded up to 4070.25 on Globex and opened Friday’s regular session at 4063.75 and then proceeded to trade straight up into 10:10 AM to a high of 4093.75. From there it traded down to a new low for the day session of 4063 at 10:55 AM, found support and traded in an upper channel  to make a high of 4095 at 12:50 pm. It traded sideways until 1:15 PM and found support at 4083.75, then it traded up to the highs of the day at  4109.25 at 3:10 PM.

The ES traded 4094.50 as the 3:50 cash imbalance showed $674 million to buy, but the ES fell 10 points before bouncing and trading 4088.50 at the 4:00 cash close. It traded 4084 at the 5:00 close but finished higher by 8.75 points or 0.21% on the day. 

In the end, the ES did take out the 4100 level, but fell hard late in the session. In terms of the ES’s overall tone, it was firm but the Dow (/YM) sold off over 200 points late in the day. In terms of the ES’s overall trade, volume was on the lighter side at 1.52 million contracts traded.

Technical Edge

  • NYSE Breadth: 67% Upside Volume 
  • Advance/Decline: 69% Advance 
  • VIX: ~$19

After Friday’s late-day spill, I was looking for the market to come under some early pressure this week. Even when I was watching the Chiefs vs. Bengals game, the ES was struggling. That said, I did not expect the S&P to be down almost a full percent in Monday’s pre-market session. 

Market-wise, we’re in an environment where we’re enjoying a really nice burst of bullish momentum, but we’re still in a bearish market with rising rates. Yes, they are not rising as fast and may soon stop rising altogether, but they are rising nonetheless and that is no friend of a bull market. 

What I want: Ideally, the market will give us a couple of days of rest. Whether that’s sideways action or lower action, I don’t really care. But many individual names — like TSLA for instance — need a rest so we can have a better R/R when we approach these setups. 

S&P 500 — ES Weekly

Leading off with a weekly view of the S&P futures, we got out first close above the 50-week moving average since early April. It’s our first close above downtrend resistance since the ATHs more than a year ago. 

We now have a higher low in the books. The question is, can we get a higher high too, by taking out 4180? 

That’s what the bulls will want to see and this week’s Fed and big-tech earnings could be a big part of that equation. 

If we zoom in to the daily, we can see that the ES is finding some support in the 4040 to 4050 area, which was a trouble spot for longs last week. 

If the ES takes out the Globex low after the open, keep an eye on that 10-day moving average at 4020 to 4025, which comes into play right between the 50% and 61.8% retracement. 

SPY

I’m not sure that we’ll see $400 to $400.50, but it’s the first significant line of defense for the bulls. There we find former resistance, as well as the 50% retracement. 

Below that puts the 61.8% retrace and 10-day moving average in play. 

Aggressive bulls can look to see if we get an opening bounce of the $402.50 area. There we find the 10-ema on the 4-hour chart, as well as the high from Monday.

AQUA

I would still love a test of the $45.50 area. 

Open Positions 

A note: After talking to some members, I want to make the setups a bit more clear. We are a trade-ideas service, but want to make entries & exits simpler to understand. We will be sending more updates, a few educational pieces and looking for a way to make our setups more clear in how we are managing them. 

  • Numbered are the trades that are open. 
  • Bold are the trades with recent updates. 
  • Italics show means the trade is closed.

— Any positions that get down to ¼ or less (AKA runners) are removed from the list below and left up to you to manage. My only suggestion would be, B/E or better stops. 

From this latest round, that includes TLT, DE and FSLR. 

  1. COP — Long from $119, the 2x weekly-up. Trimmed ¼ at the 50-day. Still watching $123.50+ for the next trim. Can technically raise stops to $118-119 or B/E, (whichever suits your style better).
    1. If still long, $127 to $127.50 is the next trim spot
  2. NKE — Down to ⅓ or ½ after yesterday’s $128+ Trim. Looking for $130+ to exit more/all. B/E stop. 

Go-To Watchlist

*Feel free to build your own trades off these relative strength leaders*

Relative strength leaders →

  1. AQUA
  2. AEHR
  3. MELI 
  4. GE
  5. WYNN, LVS
  • SBUX
  • CAH
  • BA & Airlines — AAL, DAL, UAL
  • TJX, ULTA, NKE
  • CAT
  • AEHR
  • HCCI
  • FSLR 
  • XLE — XOM, CVX, COP, BP, EOG, PXD — (Weekly Charts)

Economic Calendar

None.

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options, or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk-free for 30 days.
Disclaimer: Charts and analysis are for discussion and education purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, do not give financial advice and am not recommending the buying or selling of any security.
Remember: Not all setups will trigger. Not all setups will be profitable. Not all setups should be taken. These are simply the setups that I have put together for years on my own and what I watch as part of my own “game plan” coming into each day. Good luck!
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