End Of The Quarter Rebalance: Buy Stocks / Sell Bonds

Charts, Commentary, News, Stocks, Technical Analysis, The Opening Print, Video


Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Contract

Settlement

Net Change

+/-%

S&P 500 (ESM19:CME)

2837.75

+16.75

+0.59%

DowJones (YMM19:CBT)

25,933

+196

+0.76%

Nasdaq 100 (NQM19:CME)

7400.50

+48.50

+0.65%

Russell 2000 (RTYM19:CME)

1543.80

+3.60

+0.23%

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

  • In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp +2.58%, Hang Seng +1.76%, Nikkei +1.43%
  • In Europe 13 out of 13 markets are trading higher: CAC +0.68%, DAX +1.03%, FTSE +0.68%
  • Fair Value: S&P +4.16, NASDAQ +24.37, Dow +7.63
  • Total Volume: 1.47mil ESM & 231 SPM traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

Today’s economic calendar includes Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET, PMI Manufacturing Index 9:45 AM ET, Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET, ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET, and Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET.


S&P 500 Futures: NHOTC #ES 2841 (New Highs On The Close)

Chart courtesy of Stewart Solaka @Chicagostock$ES_F Squeezed into a new session high against 2840. Intraday heavy with gap up, buyers having trouble expanding above opening high. Below 2830 opens door to test intraday pivots.

During Thursday nights Globex session, the S&P 500 futures (ESM19:CME) printed a high of 2836.75, a low of 2820.50, and opened Friday’s regular trading hours at 2835.75.

The ES was weak following the 8:30 CT bell, and opening sell imbalances forced prices down to an early RTH low at 2828.00. After a pullback up to 2834, the second leg of selling took the futures down to a new RTH low at 2823.25. From there, the ES began to consolidate for the rest of the morning, first trading back up to 2835.00, then down to 2826.25. This wound up being the range for the next few hours.

At 1:30, Larry Kudlow went on CNBC and said the fed should lower interest rates 50 basis points, and the ES rallied up to a new high at 2840.00. Going into the close the futures started trading back down. On the 2:45 cash imbalance reveal the ES traded 2835.75, then rallied on the end of quarter rebalance, making a new high at 2840.50, then printed 2838.00 on the 3:00 cash close, and settled the day just off the highs at 2839.75 on the 3:15 futures close.

In the end, the overall tone of the ES was firm all day. In terms of the days overall trade, total volume was above average for a Friday due to the end of the quarter rebalance, with 1.47 million futures contracts traded.


Daily HotSpots

HotSpots are times during the market trading session that for the past XX days have consistently moved in one direction or the other. These HotSpots are published each morning pre-market. The next day, a results post is also published and weekly a summary post.

CAUTION: This data is under development and provided only for research and teaching purposes

If you have questions about HotSpots you can contact us at info@mrtopstep.com.

ES_FLONG
TypeEntryExitTrade %Profit %PointsHeatMap
normal-2115171548860.0130.00chart
normal-1312481318850.0132.75chart
normal-1112471331910.0132.50chart
normal-8124713311000.0131.50chart
normal-5144015361000.0126.75chart
taylorPlus-2110131112900.05110.75chart
taylorPlus-1310241118920.0254.75chart
taylorPlus-1110241118910.0245.25chart
taylorPlus-8135314491000.0139.25chart
taylorPlus-5135314491000.0127.00chart
taylor3-2113211407860.0362.75chart
taylor3-1312491319850.0128.00chart
taylor3-1111521233820.0122.00chart
taylor3-813541431880.0124.25chart
taylor3-5100110341000.0117.25chart
ES_FSHORT
TypeEntryExitTrade %Profit %PointsHeatMap
normal-2114311524-81-0.01-29.00chart
normal-1114501522-82-0.01-16.75chart
normal-811081200-87-0.02-55.25chart
normal-511081201-100-0.01-37.00chart
taylorPlus-1311591230-85-0.01-18.25chart
taylorPlus-1115021537-82-0.01-22.50chart
taylorPlus-811391225-87-0.01-25.75chart
taylorPlus-511391225-100-0.01-19.25chart
taylor3-1310211051-85-0.01-32.25chart
taylor3-1110211051-91-0.01-32.25chart
taylor3-810221105-87-0.01-33.75chart
taylor3-515251557-100-0.01-16.00chart

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Danny Riley has worked in the futures and options industry for 38 years, including the CBOT’s bond room, where he worked for several of the Market Wizards. He went on to build the largest volume desk in the S&P 500 Index Futures, serving some of the largest banks and hedge funds, the UBS program trading business, and some of the world's top individual traders. As a leader and co-creator of the MrTopStep IM-Pro Trading Room, he shares trading ideas and breaking market news live from the floor with our other professional traders and new traders eager to experience the power of collective intelligence. Join us today and get the edge only social trading can give you.


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