Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

ContractSettlementNet Change+/-%
S&P 500 (ESZ19:CME) 3001.50-7.00-0.23%
DowJones (YMZ19:CBT)27,080-134-0.49%
Nasdaq 100 (NQZ19:CME)7879.50-28.75-0.36%
Russell 2000 (RTYZ19:CME)1587.70+4.80-0.30%

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

  • In Asia 7 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp -1.74%, Hang Seng -1.23%, Nikkei +0.06%
  • In Europe 8 out of 13 markets are trading lower: CAC +0.11%, DAX -0.21%, FTSE +0.24%
  • Fair Value: S&P +2.64, NASDAQ +24.47, Dow -2.24
  • Total Volume: 1.69 million ESZ & 8,793 SPZ traded in the pit

*As of 7:00 a.m. CST

Today’s Economic Calendar:

Today’s economic calendar includes the 8-Week Bill Settlement, FOMC Meeting Begins, Redbook 8:55 AM ET, Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET, Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET, and Treasury International Capital 4:00 PM ET.


S&P 500 Futures: Uncertainty Abounds

Chart courtesy of Stewart Solaka @Chicagostock$ES_F Defensive bounce off 2985, trouble overcoming Friday’s 3005 low, leaving longs on hook from last week. Need new buyers to recover for another shot @ highs. Failure to overcome, gives room to retest 2985, w sell stops < last Tues 2957 low to shakeout buyers. 2930 next lvl.

After Saturday’s drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields, the S&P 500 futures sold off down to 2983.50 Sunday night on Globex, and then rallied to 3000.75 at 7:35 am Monday morning. 

The futures printed 2998.00 on Mondays 8:30 futures open, and initially down ticked to 2995.75,  before making a series of higher lows. An early high was made at 3005.25 just after 9:00 CT, completing a MrTopStep 10 handle rule, and then sold off down to 2996.75, just 3 ticks under the vwap. 

After the pullback, the ES traded back up to a lower high at 3004.50 at 10:15, and got hit by several sell programs down to 2993.25, then rallied up to 3002.50. After 2:00 the futures pulled back down to 2999.25, and then rallied up to 3003.25 as the MiM went from $435 million to buy, to $610 million to buy. 

At 2:30 the ES pulled back down to the vwap 2998.25, and then popped back up to 3001.25 as the MiM buy dropped down to $369 million to buy. The futures then went on to trade 3000.00, as the final 2:45 cash imbalance showed $304 million to buy. On the 3:00 cash close the futures printed 3000.25, and settled at 3002.25 on the 3:15 futures close, down -7.25 handles, or -0.24% on the day. 

In the end, despite the large overnight drop, the ES recovered nicely. It seemed like there was some type of mid-month rebalancing going on. As I have always said; the ES tends to take bad news and make good of it. 

Was it bullish price action, or just short covering? I think it was a mixture of both. Is there still uncertain risk out there? I guess so, but I do not think that there is going to be a war between the U.S. and Iran. In terms of the days overall trade, 1.7 million ESZ’s traded. 


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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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