Fed Says Two Or Three More Rate Hikes In 2018

Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

• In Asia 8 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp -0.52%, Hang Seng -1.09%, Nikkei +0.99%
• In Europe 12 out of 12 markets are trading lower: CAC -1.13%, DAX -1.11%, FTSE -0.98%
• Fair Value: S&P +2.72, NASDAQ +20.24, Dow +3.94
• Total Volume: 1.4mil ESM, and 888 SPM traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

Today’s economic calendar includes the Weekly Bill Settlement, Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index 9:00 AM ET, PMI Composite Flash 9:45 AM ET, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET, Leading Indicators 10:00 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index 11:00 AM ET, Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM ET.

S&P 500 Futures: Fed Day Ruckus / S&P Falls, Bond Yields And Oil Prices Rise

Yesterday in ‘Our View’ we said it was going to be a slow morning, and after a globex range of 10.50 handles, the 8:30 am cash session opened at 2720.25, down -4.00 handles. The first move in the S&P 500 futures was a break to make a 2515.25 low about 20 minutes into the session, two handles below yesterday’s low. From there, the futures chopped in a 7.75 handle range until, buyers came in at the Euro close, pushing the ES up to 2734.00. After that, the ES took a breather, trading back down to 2725.00 before the 1:00 pm cst FOMC number.

On the Fed release, the futures popped up to 2744.00 in the first ten minutes post reaction, then up +20.50 handles on the day, before selling off quickly back to 2724.25 just ten minutes later. The next move was back up to 2742.00 before quieting down briefly, and that’s when the floor fell out, leading to a move to a new low at 2712.50, down -11.00 handles. After the low, the ES rallied back up and double topped two ticks below the vwap, pulled back down to 2718.75, and then traded one tick above the vwap at 2726.00, had a small pullback, and then traded back up to 2733.25.

As the MiM went from $189 million to sell to $800 million to sell, the ES sold off down to the 2722.00, before popping back up to 22729.00. When the MiM started to dropped back, the ES sold back off all the way back down to 2714.25, and traded 2715.25 on the 3:00 cash close. The futures upticked to 2718.75, and went on to settle at 2718.25 on the 3:15 futures close, down -5.5 handles, or -0.20%

In the end, it was another day of ups and down, and failed rallies. Volume was low in the beginning of the day, and picked up late in the day. As for the S&P’s overall tone, it still feels like it wants to go higher.

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As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

_{Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.}