WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03082023
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Stocks came under pressure early in the session and have seen further downside over the course of the trading day on Tuesday. The major averages have all moved sharply lower after ending the previous session narrowly mixed.The sell-off reflects a negative reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell'.
Yesterday's Technicial Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Perhaps yesterday wiped away any doubt about the power of the clock. It was S2H day. Notice on page four the top chart is the two previous days (Monday) and the bottom chart is the previous day (Tuesday). Now notice how at 12:20 pm the rally from last week is checked. It just starts to round over.
You can see a drift down to the close (top chart). On the bottom chart (Tuesday) price opens in Monday's range. Holds steady for 30 minute until J Powell gets on the mike. At 10:00 price rips down for 10 minutes then rallies for 25 minutes where it gets checked at the AM HIGH.
Now we have a drift down. Where do you think that ends? The lunch low. And where is the lunch low? 12:10 pm. Just like clockwork!
A rally for 20 minutes is checked just outside the halfway retracement. Then drift down to a lower low at the lunch low at 1:50 pm.
If you were looking to trade with the clock. The day was S2H a bearish down. The path of least resistance was to the downside. You were looking to get short on a rally. How about the AM HIGH? And where would you get out? The lunch low.
There is another way to look at it. The value area from the market profile was lower. Dalton would have said; "Short the rallies, close out on the breaks!"
Or just a down move for 10 minutes and an up wave for 30 minutes that recovers just over half of the decline. The best you could have hoped for would have been a drift down the length of the decline. As was proven by the LAST HOUR LOW.
good morning today is SERIES S3H and the SPILL is down.
News: ADP Employment Report at 8:15, International Trade in Goods and Services at 8:30, Jerome Powell Speaks at 10:00 & JOLTS at 10:00 AM, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30. All time EST.
Last Night: Held at yesterdays lows in a tight trading range.
Edge: Now the past two days have been very bearish. Price may be a bit oversold.
7/8/9 AM Trade: Found a bid at the 3990 looking to take higher. Found supply and was driven back down by hitting the bid.
Today: We've drifted down nearly 600 points. May see some bullish tendencies
Globex 18 handle trading range on 208 K volume.
Bulls: need to retake the 4027 want to take the 4050 handle.
Bears: need to retake the 3947, want to take the 3925 handle.
Cycle Bias: Potential favored to bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 19.85
Shape of the day: Looking for relationshipe between AM HIGH and lunch high with independent mid pm low.
Honing: Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH
Pre Opening: Potential gap or near gap on the open. Could see a resting spell for futher downside action. The 3990 seems to be the great attractor for now.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Offing Events: War in Ukraine is starting to gear up for full scale kinetic war. And now we have Leopards in the Fray. And now Jets (F-16's). Look for Spring Equnoix as demarkation war / no war. Cost of Inflation is raising $7 eggs and climbing. And the flow entering from Southern border.
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: Mar 7 Worm Moon 7:40 am First day of Spring Mar 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
Last Friday's Opening print: https://mrtopstep.com/from-the-desk-of-wyckoff-trader-60/
