WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03082024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Following a notable pullback to start the week, stocks moved mostly higher during trading on Wednesday. The major averages all moved to the upside on the day but remain well off their recent record highs. The rebound on Wall Street partly reflected a positive reaction to congressional testimony.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
The high probability trade yesterday was geting long at the spill down yesterday. You had many reasons to do it. Price sold off hard the previous day. Globex took price back up and was trading above the high of that day. The day was S4H. This day is a strong bullish trend day, when the wind is to the bulls sails. And who was speaking in the Senate?
The spill down just kissed the previous day's high. So, you probaly paid up as I mentioned on page three, yesterday:
"JP speech at 10:00 am will move markets and you may not see a clear path to victory. You may find yourself paying up. Ideal trade wait till the 5135 is held or pay up."
The other opportunity would have been at 10:00 am when his speach begain as price showed it wasn't going down. Then around 10:20 am when the opening range indicated a break out. You would had long cause the AM HIGH was in your sights. It sealed just around 10:45 am as price gave way to the next window.
The MID AM LOW seal was round 10:30 am. Notice as strong 55 minute move up followed by a 45 minute move down. Price holds at the 3/8 retracement. This indicates more bullish activity to follow. By 12:20 pm it looks like that is not going to happen. Price wetbeaks the previous high.
It ideal would have to have gotten out of our long position at the AM HIGH, that is if you were still in the trade.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you you might be curious when the best time to consider a long position. Based on the information provided, the best time to have gotten long the eMini futures market from the perspective of a seasoned trader for a day trade would have been:
* At the spike down yesterday, which kissed the previous day's high. This was the initial high probability trade opportunity.
* At 10:00 am when JP's speech began, as price showed it wasn't going down.
* Around 10:20 am when the opening range indicated a break out. This was the most opportune time to have gotten long, as the AM HIGH was in sight.
These times were identified based on the analysis of market trends, price movements, and the impact of external events (such as JP's speech) on the market. A seasoned trader would have identified these opportunities as they arose and acted accordingly to maximize their chances of a successful day trade.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S1L with the spill odds up.
News: Employment Situation at 8:30. All times EST.
Last Night: After weak close, price rallied up to the weekly R1 pivot at 5173 found supply and backed down to daily pivot 5152.
Edge: We had an inversion at the last hour yesteday, potental for an inversion today.
Need to see where the jobs numbers sets the sail for market today. Need to recover Weekly R1 for a win for the bulls.
This day will determine if bulls will start to move this month higher or drop the soap. (yes I said that yesterday)
The market is trending upwards; however, there are some potential risks on the horizon. (from yesterday)
7/8/9 AM: Found a bid at the daily pivot 5153 and waited for numbers.
Today: Need to see a strong showing by the bulls else the bears will start to hit the bid.
Bulls Want: 52, 60, 73
Bears Want: 48, 29, 16
Globex: 24 handle trading range on 208 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 14.29
Shape of the day: Odds and probabilities for each turn.
Honing: Spill odd up, loupie loop LAST HOUR ODDS LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Got long in the last 30 minutes. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Got long in the last 30 minutes. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Unsure of direction and sit out the trade. OUT
Pre Opening: Diped to the CASH LOW. Now, trying to take out the 5173
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
Comments are closed