WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03142024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Following the significant rebound seen during Tuesday's session, stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Wednesday. The major averages spent most of the day on opposite sides of the unchanged line before closing mixed.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
In the chat yesterday: UBSS is working 5000 ES and 1000 NQ. that is SOP at 1414 today. Algo 28 GSCO hitting everybody. working 25,000 ES and 8,000 NQ by the clock. Ok that's all I needed. I could see a small range for the day. Price was trading at the highs. Bulls were losing the deal. Price had now shifted from those highs.
I had been holding a long position since January 2, 2024 at 4767.50. I wanted to see what an average investor would see. Well, I felt that was just about the time. Of course, the closing of the H was the driver. I had one day left. I did not want to see a crowded exit door.
So, I hit the bid at 5178.75 on the H's and closed out my trade with a 401.74 handle profit. You can do the math. That averages a 400 / 50 / 11 range.
Over 50 trading days that yields a net of 8 points a day. Over 11 weeks that yields a net 36 points a week. So, 400 handles over 50 days, with 11 weeks. A trader should see at least net of 8 ponts a day and 36 net handles a week. I would shoot for 36 net a week. That's the averge trading range in a day.
Imagine that. One good day could make your week?
If you were looking to get a trade on, perhaps there was one. As price was unable to take out the highs on the third try, you could see the bid drop out as the 2:00 pm hour ticked. If you look at 1:30 pm, just thirty minutes prior, you could have seen a lot of volume enter in at those highs.
At 2:00 pm the volume was less as price retested those highs. The best trade may have been going short at those highs and waiting till price slid off and took out the current interday low and started printing lower lows on greatly increased volume.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you you might be curious when the best time to consider a short position:
In this scenario, the trader could have entered a short position near the highs of the day, as volume decreased and price failed to break through resistance. They could then wait for price to start printing lower lows on increased volume before adding to their position or increasing the size of their trade. This strategy would allow the trader to take advantage of a potential downward trend in the market, while minimizing their risk through the use of a stop loss.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S3L with the spill up.
News: Jobless Claims & PPI-Final Demand & Retail Sales at 8:30, Business Inventories at 10:00, EIA Natural Gas Report at 10:30 AM. All times EST.
Last Night: Yet again, GLOBEX get's over it's skies and trades up to a higher high.
Edge: No edge yet. The time change and muddy the clock and the contract is changing.
There has been a change in the force. At least in the Day Light Savings time. It will take a few days.
A weak or two for the force to realign itself. Till then your TS's and roundies. Clock muddy for now.
7/8/9 AM: Trading at the R1 5248 handle.
Today: Need to see a strong showing by the bulls else the bears will start to hit the bid. (same today)
Bulls Want: 46, 52, 62
Bears Want: 22, 13, 98
Globex: 19 handle trading range on 138 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 13.46
Shape of the day: Due to time change, clock may be muddy.
Honing: Waiting on clock to syncy
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Exited due to contract change, waiting to see direction. OUT
Tuna (30m 1+D) Exited due to contract change, waiting to see direction. OUT
Sardine (5M-1D) Short around 2:00 pm. Exited at low. OUT
Pre Opening: For now, still holding the 5248 handle. Will need to see how CASH trades at the open for next direction.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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