WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-03262024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After an early move to the downside, stocks fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Monday but largely maintained a negative bias. The major averages all finished the day lower after ending last Friday's trading mixed. The steep drop came after a report from the Financial Times.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
The day was S2H day. Not a fan of the S2H but I am a fan of the clock. Notice how the day ended. It was on the low. What was the last hour? LOW.
The clock been muddy the past two weeks. Perhaps the last few days of last week started to synch. For the most part, it was a nothing burger day. Still, the clock showed the way. The spill down sealed at 9:45 am. I felt good. My read was:
"Best trade would have been over Globex as price tested the weekly and daily pivot. Potential bid coming in at weely S2 5272 handle. If price gets back to the 5292 to 5297 I"m looking to get short for the SHORT play with a STOP past the Weely R1 at the 5305 handle."
Perhaps I was too hopeful. We could not get back in the previous day's range. I got a long on around the 5285.25 handle. I was going to ride it up to the daily pivot. Yea right. That did not happen.
The lunch low came in where you see that volume spike at 1:10 pm. For the next hour price driped up. The next turn is the AM HIGH. If you were looing for the best place to get short that would have been the place. The AM HIGH sealed at 2:30 pm. Now, price is not going to get to that daily pivot, so get short at 2:30 pm.
WHY? It barely wetbeaked AM HIGH to print a high of day.
Now you are short. Where do you get out? The last hour is A LOW. You might want to hold it till the last hour. Perhaps the closing print.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a long position:
Based on the information provided, a seasoned day trader looking to short the eMini futures market on a S2H day could have considered the following levels:
1. Over Globex as price tested the weekly and daily pivot, with a potential bid coming in at the weekly S2 5272 handle. The trader could have looked to get short for the short play with a stop past the weekly R1 at the 5305 handle if price got back to the 5292 to 5297 range. (but price never got their)
2. At the AM high of 2:30 pm, which was the highest point of the day and barely wetbeaked the high of day. This level could have been used as an entry point for a short position, with a stop placed above the high of day.
As for exiting the position, the trader could have considered holding the short position until the last hour, as the trader mentioned that the last hour was a low. However, it's important to note that market conditions can change rapidly, and it's essential to monitor the market and adjust the position accordingly.
Overall, the key to successful day trading is to have a clear plan, set clear entry and exit levels, and manage risk effectively. It's also essential to remain patient and disciplined, and not to trade based on emotions or hunches. By following these principles, a seasoned day trader can increase their chances of success in the eMini futures market.
Trading in the eMini futures market is risky and can change rapidly, and several factors can impact the market. To minimize potential losses, always use stops when placing trades, but understand that there is always the risk that a market gap could result in a larger-than-expected loss.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S3H Iffy with the spill down.
News: Durable Goods Orders at 8:30, Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00 & FHFA House Price Index at 9:00, Consumer Confidence at 10:00. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: The clock should be back in syncy. It's iffy today.
7/8/9 AM: Seeing some supply at the Weekly Pivot 5292 handle.
Today: After retracing for the past three days, we could see a bid
Bulls Want: 96, 05, 20
Bears Want: 81, 72, 48
Globex: 20 handle trading range on 98 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bear.
Tone: VIX trading at 13.08
Shape of the day: Depening upon wheather this day is L or H, you could could see a W or a M pattern. Rope follows expansion. Need a surgons scaple to trade it. That is unless we get a bid in.
Honing: Spill down, AM HIGH, MID AM LOW, lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Added some longs at the close. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Added some longs at the close. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Did not see an edge all day. OUT.
Pre Opening: Holding on the the Weekly Pivot 5292 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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