WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-04032024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
After failing to sustain an early move to the upside, stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the trading day on Monday. The Dow and the S&P 500 gave back ground after ending last Thursday's trading at record closing highs, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq managed to end the day in positive territory.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
A body stays in motion until an opposing force…opposes it. That's not the first law of thermos dynamics. That's Wyckoff!
Before the open, Globex had released the Cracklin. Price was plumpting. Around 4:00 am the Weekly, 3-Day, and Daily Pivot gave way to the force of the bears hitting the bid at the highs. Price traded down to the daily S2 and the Weekly S1 (5278/5272) but the bulls could not hold it.
By 8:40 am the Daily S2 5263 had been breached. To put it into perspective, that's the range of the previous day. When the market opened it was gap down. There is one more level that I have not talked about which is the Monthly Pivot. And what do you think that number is? Wait for it. 5251 handle.
That's where price tries to open. Bulls can not hold the force. Price pushes down another 20 handles before a bid start to creep in. And where do you think that bid is? The Weekly S2 5237 handle. It's around 10:15 am and were are looking for the AM LOW. It seals early and weak. That's a hint, at least for now the down move may be close to getting over.
From 11:00 am to 11:40 am we see an up move lasting 40 minutes. Then a drift down for 40 minutes retraces the rally on low volume. You can see price start to tighten up around 12:20 pm. Bulls have held this move for 2 hours. What do you think your next move should be?
Price moves up for the next 45 minutes and seals the lunch high at 5251 (Weekly Pivot) and then starts to drift back down again.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position:
Based on the information provided, a seasoned day trader looking to position themselves in the eMini futures market may have considered the following levels:
1. Shorting at the daily S2/Weekly S1 level of 5278/5272, as price was unable to hold above this level earlier in the day.
2. Shorting at the daily S3 level of 5263, as this level was breached and held as resistance.
3. Shorting at the monthly pivot level of 5251, as this level was the opening price and held as resistance.
4. Buying at the AM low, as this could indicate that the down move may be close to getting over.
5. Buying the 40-minute rally from 11:00 am to 11:40 am, as this could be the start of a trend change.
6. Buying at the lunch high of 5251, as this was a previous level of resistance that has now been tested as support.
It's important to note that these levels are based on the information provided and the trader's own analysis and risk management strategy. Additionally, it's important to consider the overall market context, such as economic data, news, and other market movements.
In summary, the trader should be prepared to act on the levels that offer the best risk/reward ratio, and should always use stop-loss orders to manage risk.
It's also worth noting that the trader's own bias and emotions can play a role in decision making, as mentioned in the text. Therefore, it's important for traders to be aware of their own biases and to have a solid trading plan in place to help mitigate the influence of emotions on their decisions.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S3L with the spill up.
News: ADP Employment Report at 8:15, ISM Services Index at 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: The boys are back in town. I'm looking for the secondary test. A responce to yesterday's automatic rally at the close.
7/8/9 AM: After testing the 5247 several times, price regained the 20 Day MA, Monthly Pivot and Daily pivot and has started to challenge the LAST HOUR HIGH of 5262
Today: Could see a move up to regain the 5287 10 day MA and higher.
Bulls Want: 72, 87, 95
Bears Want: 50, 44, 37
Globex: 16 handle trading range on 128 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 14.89
Shape of the day: This day favors a W or M formation. Rope follows expansion. Need a surgons scaple to trade it.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, MID AM HIGH, lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Added LONG at the AM LOW. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Waited till a 2 hour base of accmulation at 12:20 pm. Added LONG. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Caught that falling knife at 10:19 am and bailed at the:
Trader :(3:03:55 PM) : If 5253 trades…I will likely be the first one filled Ive been sitting there so long/ (3:04:39 PM) : Got'em. Filled at 5253 +10pts
(3:05:12 PM) : Thanks. I placed that order at 10:19. LOL Ideal trade location. OUT.
Pre Opening: After challenging the LAST HOUR HIGH, price has retreated to Monthly, Daily and 20 Day MA waiting on direction from market open.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: February 24 Snow Moon 7:30 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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