WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-04102024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Following the lackluster performance seen on Monday, stocks saw considerable volatility over the course of the trading session on Tuesday. The major averages fluctuated as the day progressed, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 eventually closing in positive territory.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Perhaps I should have went with sell strength yesterday. I guess I just have "Betty Davis Eyes." A percious bull. Actually on S4H day the cycle inverted. The cycle normally flips to the S1L day. Globex had me so excited that CASH would accept the highs at R1 5269 as value and today was the day.
Yea, that did not happen!
At the top of the page you'll seee Daily, R1, R2, S1, S2. What you do not see is S3 but you saw it yesterday. Price retraced twice the daily range. Thats what stopped the accelerated decline. That and Algos: covering short positins. SO I guess that was buying weakness. Really really weak weakness.
The S1 day is odds and probabilites. We got the selling climax around 10:50 am. The Automatic Rally ended just before Afternoon Trade at 1:40 pm. And, well the seconday test ended at 3:10 pm. The rally that followed? As hank said; "IMPRO: HL Camp :(3:46:28 PM) : IMPRO: HL Camp :(2:37:38 PM) : 31 handles bubba in 19 minutes. over 1.50 handles per minute is moving and "IMPRO: HL Camp :(4:07:29 PM) : 15:07:13 28 handles in 12 minutes through the NYSE close. over 2.25 handles per minutes IMPRO: HL Camp :(4:08:17 PM) : 1 round lot = $187.50 per second" Those are not my words, those are Hanks!
So if you wanted to get long it would have been buy the weakness at 10:58 am. Hold it till the Afternoon trade. Bulls almost got back into the previous day's low but they backed off.
The stop was down at: II. Trade entry – Buying weakness 58 down to 51 perhaps to 45 handle. Stops S2 5233 or1% of account. The challenge would have been to take the loss (if your stop was mental) and then get short at 10:37 am. Perhaps you chased it down to 10:40 pm. There was still some meat on the bone for the shorts. Then reload on the afternoon low.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position: (Sydneys / AI Read)
Based on the information provided, it appears that the best time to have put a trade on the eMini futures market from the perspective of a seasoned trader for a day trade would have been to "buy the weakness" at 10:58 am, hold the position until the afternoon trade, and then potentially exit the position or reload on the afternoon low.
The trader notes that the selling climax occurred around 10:50 am, and the automatic rally ended just before the afternoon trade at 1:40 pm. The secondary test ended at 3:10 pm, and the rally that followed was described as "moving" and "improving" by another trader.
The trader also notes that the stop for the long position could have been set at 5233 or 1% of the account, and that the challenge would have been to take the loss (if the stop was mental) and then get short at 10:37 am. The trader also notes that there was still some "meat on the bone" for the shorts after the afternoon low.
Overall, it appears that the best time to have put a trade on the eMini futures market from the perspective of a seasoned trader for a day trade would have been to buy the weakness at 10:58 am and hold the position until the afternoon trade, with a stop set at 5233 or 1% of the account. The trader could have also considered getting short at 10:37 am or after the afternoon low. However, it's important to note that the success of any trading strategy depends on a variety of factors, including market conditions, risk tolerance, and individual trading goals.
Be sure to use a stop with every trade placed to help mitigate potential losses, and only trade with risk capital that can be afforded to lose.
Additionally, it is important to keep in mind that the market can change quickly and what was a good trade opportunity at one point may no longer be valid at another. It is essential to use risk management techniques such as stop losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S2L with the spill odds down.
News: CPI at 8:30, Michelle Bowman Speaks at 8:45, Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary) at 10:00, EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30, 4-Month Bill Auction at 11:30, Austan Goolsbee Speaks at 12:45, 10-Yr Note Auction at 1:00, FOMC Minutes at 2:00, Treasury Statement at 2:00. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: I'm expecting Friday's, Monday's, and Tuesday's high to get taken out.
7/8/9 AM: Price backed up to a whole bunch of support at the 5258 and then let lose to the up side.
Today: Need to hold the 5257 handle perhaps higher.
Bulls Want: 91, 15, 25
Bears Want: 57, 41, 25
Globex: 16 handle trading range on 108 volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 15.24
Shape of the day: This day could trend strongly for the bulls. Dog leg from lunch high down to mid pm low.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, (NO MID AM), lunch high, mid pm low, LAST HOUR HIGH.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Bought on 10:45 low. LONG
Tuna (30m 1+D) Bought on 10:45 low. LONG
Sardine (5M-1D) Got long around 11:00. Exited at the afternoon high. OUT.
Pre Opening: Seeing some supply at the 5272 handle. And now trading below CASH low 5204 and change.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: March 25 Worm Moon 3:00 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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