WyckoffTrader-AMTurn-07122024
YES. I have skin in the game. I trade my own personal account. Sardine / Tuna / Billfish trades are for educational purposes only. I am NOT a futures broker and do not manage any accounts. It is my intent to show where trades may occur. What you do is up to you. You can follow my IDEAS to profit or loss. You determine trade size, when, where and how you trade. (CFTC) Futures is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest, know how much you can afford to lose.
NEWS / FUNDAMENTALS
(Reuters)
Stocks showed a substantial downturn over the course of the trading session on Thursday, with the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 pulling back sharply after reaching new record intraday highs in early trading. Traders may have seen the increased confidence in a September rate cut as already priced into the markets.
Yesterday's Technical Review using
WB's Emini Clock and Wyckoff's Tape Reading Principles
Now we are starting to hear those "magic" words. IT's already baked in but AI has just started the sky is the only limit. Then the traders start to say; "buy the rumor sell the news…"
Does that about describe the last two days? As Hank say's; "All the retail bought is underwater!"
It was more of a S2L "How deep is your three" kinda of day. The three is turn three. It's the PEON close. Price can trade down past the AM turn down to the PEON close. Which usually is around 11:30 am.
That sell off lasted down into 12:05 pm. The best trade would to have gotten short after the 10:00 am news gave is go and failed. Could you have held it all the way down? I got short just after CPI numbers. My stop just just a quarter above the high. I was glad.
I was really leaning on that S2L "how deep is your three?" Eariler a bid tried to hold but they just kept on selling. From 12:05 pm to 12:10 pm was the first time the bulls gave it a show. By 2:00 pm price has spring the current low. It's not going up but for at least for now, it's not going down.
Wyckoff Trader,
P.S. If you've read this analysis, you might be curious when the best time to consider a position: (Sydneys / AI Read)
As a seasoned eMini futures trader, I would look for the best time to enter and exit trades based on the price action, volume, and market structure. Here's my analysis of the given scenario:
Based on the play-by-play description you provided, it seems like the best time to enter the trade would have been:
As a seasoned eMini futures trader, I'd say the best time to have put a trade and exited it would have been:
**Entry:** Short the market around 10:00 am, immediately after the news release, when the market failed to respond positively to the "rumor" of AI's potential impact on the market.
**Exit:** Around 12:10 pm, when the market finally showed some signs of life and the bulls made a brief attempt to hold the price up. This would have been a good time to take profits and lock in some gains.
**Stop Loss:** As mentioned in the text, I would have set my stop loss just a quarter above the high, which would have helped to limit my losses in case the market continued to move against me.
Of course, hindsight is always 20/20, and it's easy to say what would have worked best after the fact. But as a trader, you have to make quick decisions based on the market's behavior and adjust your strategy accordingly.
In this case, the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon played out, and the market responded negatively to the news. The S2L ("how deep is your three?") setup also provided a good opportunity to short the market, as the price action was strong and the bulls were unable to hold the market up.
It's important to note that these are just general guidelines and that each trading situation is unique. As a seasoned eMini futures trader, it's crucial to use technical analysis, risk management, and market knowledge to make informed trading decisions.
In summary, as a seasoned eMini futures trader, I would look for opportunities to enter and exit trades based on the market structure, price action, and volume. It's essential to have a well-defined trading plan and to use risk management strategies to protect your capital.
You know, I'm thinking perhaps Sydney may be getting at bit signiant… Like it or not, she is improving gunning for whoever is in the seat…
Yet, she's never seen a weekly/daily chart. A price trend or an exchange floor. A movign average cross or water in the bath tub. A MACD. A Keyboard or a mouse. Do you really understand what we let out of the Pandorias box?
With that started here are the "PROSE and THE NUMBAHS"
good morning today is SERIES S3L IFFY with the spill up.
News: PPI-Final Demand at 8:30, Consumer Sentiment at 10:00. All times EST.
Last Night: See Actionalble Trade Plan above.
Edge: Today just might be the way it goes either way. My lean is to the upside. (same today)
7/8/9 AM: Price has been negoating the 5640 handle seeing some supply.
Today: See Actonable Trade Plan above.
Bulls Want: 47, 64, 72
Bears Want: 24, 16, 09
Globex: 12 handle trading range on 118 K volume.
Cycle Bias: Favored to the bull.
Tone: VIX trading at 12.32
Shape of the day: Rope follows expansion. Need a surgons scaple to trade it.
Honing: Spill up, AM LOW, MID AM HIGH, lunch low, mid pm high, LAST HOUR LOW.
Bill Fish (4H/4D) Started taking some off durring rally. OUT
Tuna (30m 1+D) Started taking some off durring rally. OUT
Sardine (5M-1D) Did not see an edge. OUT.
Pre Opening: Seeing some supply at the 5640 handle. After the PPI numbers price driped down to take out all the stops to 5621 and then traded back up to the 5640 handle.
The clock is used for timing your entries and exits. Position long at the lows exit at the highs. Get short at the highs buy in at the lows. When the trend is in, WB's clock is your friend!
Your edge is a series of trades, not just one trade or one day.
Dates: March 25 Worm Moon 3:00 a.m. Spring Equinox March 20 5:24 pm (all times est)
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