The MrTopStep Imbalance Meter (MiM) http://closingimbalance.com/ and yesterday’s winning trades: It was a good day for the traders of the new MrTopStep MiM Trading Room.
There was a lot more conversation, but I’ll stick to what I think best describes how the late-day trade went down:
Marlin ( 3:19:01 PM ): offering 50.75
Marlin ( 3:19:09 PM ): 50.50 sorry
Marlin ( 3:19:19 PM ): filled short @ 50.50
Tim Shaker ( 3:19:37 PM ): good luck
Dboy ( 3:20:01 PM ): going with you sold 2050.50s
Marlin ( 3:20:11 PM ): DBOY Joins in the fun!
Dboy ( 3:20:20 PM ): yep
Yoda ( 3:20:38 PM ): Do you guys place stops when you place your shorts?
Dboy ( 3:20:55 PM ): Im useing 3 bucks
Dboy ( 3:24:10 PM ): I think that was your high ticks
frankL ( 3:24:54 PM ): short 51.0
tedbrooks9 ( 3:26:30 PM ): gone short…
paris ( 3:30:45 PM ): you guys rock made some$$$$$$$$$ thanks
tedbrooks9 ( 3:35:48 PM ): you boys have transformed my trading beyond belief…
Dboy ( 3:31:20 PM ): aid 48 on half
HenryD ( 3:40:40 PM ): so do you expect another move down at 3:45 when this data s fully releasedAudrey P Gibson ( 3:32:40 PM ): happy with my 2.25 pts thx!
frankL ( 3:33:38 PM ): close 2047.5
tedbrooks9 ( 3:34:08 PM ): still time to drop 10 points!
paris ( 3:34:16 PM ): great call marlin
Dboy ( 3:34:24 PM ): let her ride !
tedbrooks9 ( 3:35:48 PM ): you boys have transformed my trading beyond belief…
Dboy ( 3:36:22 PM ): crackem one more time Marlin
George Reyna ( 3:37:31 PM ): i feel more comfortable riding the mim, understanding it more and coming up with my own style on how to use it
I could go on with this thread, but I think you understand where this ended up. Everyone in the MiM room that traded made money. The funny thing about this is one of the bootcampers had asked on Monday if there were ever any 10-handle trades and we said yes but we didn’t expect it to happen the next day. It doesn’t matter if you made 2 handles, 5 handles or 10, the MiM proved its usefulness. I covered my position with a 7-handle win in all, topping off one of my best trading days in several months. Thanks Marlin!!!!
S&P 500 Futures, the Dollar and an Ugly Day for the Stock Market
The global selloff started out in Asia and it spread to Europe with 11 out of 12 markets trading lower, then spread to the US and the CME Group’s S&P 500 futures (ESH15:CME). As the dollar surged to a 12-year high against the euro, the Dow and S&P were seeing the largest one-day selloffs since early January.
The Dow futures (YMH15:CBT) on the CME floor fell 1.85% or 304 points to 17666. The S&P futures (ESH15:CME) and the Nasdaq futures (NQH15:CME) fell 35.8 and 82.25 points respectively, or -1.7%. While some said the selloff was tied to economic trends rather than the outlook of companies, what we saw was nonstop liquidation. After falling overnight on the CME’s overnight Globex trading session, the ESH15 short-covered slightly off the early lows, but after the 8:30 opening bell rang the futures started getting hit by waves of program selling. It was a broad-based selloff with all 10 S&P 500 sectors posting losses. The Russell 2000 fell -1.2% but remains up 4% compared to the S&P, up +0.9% year to date, and the Dow, down -0.5%.
Around 6:00 am CT the DAX was down -0.6%, but by the time the S&P futures opened the DAX was down -1.4%. Right after the 8:30 CT open the ESH15 got hit by several waves of selling. The institutional selling never let the S&P breathe until it traded down to the 2051.00 area, where thousands of ESH15 futures traded before popping back up to 2061.00. After that, the ESH15 got hit by one futures sell imbalances after another, knocking the futures back down to new lows in the 2048.00 area. Going up was a struggle, but when the ESH15 reversed, things fell apart in a matter of minutes. This set the late-day tone and when the MIM started showing $200mil for sale the ESH popped back up to the 2051 area and then sold off hard when the actual 2:45 cash close showed MOC sell $1.1billion.
The overall tone of the markets remained weak all day and the late selling seemed to cap off a very good day for the bears and a very bad day for the bulls. As of the close the S&P futures (ESH15:CME) has closed down 7 out of the last 10 sessions for a total of -72 handles. Crude oil closed at $48.29, down -3.4%, and gold closed down 0.50% at $1160.10. The VIX closed up 10.82% at 16.69. It’s 8:45 pm and the ESH15 is trading 2048.50, up 6.5 points. We can’t say for sure that the selloff is over but we can say we think we see some type of bounce either today or into the end of the week.
Today’s economic reports starts with the MBA Purchase Applications, Quarterly Services Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report, 10 Yr-Note Auction and the Treasury Budget.
Our view: Short and sweet,I do not think this selloff is going to continue much lower. That doesn’t mean the ESH15 can’t trade down to the 2035 level or even lower, but we are sticking with the PitBull’s Thursday/Friday low the week before the March expiration. Sure the S&P has been down 7 out of the last 10 sessions for a total loss of -72 handles, but you know what? I think you sell the early rallies and start buying weakness again. I think we are going back to 2065-2068.
“The S&P 500 Futures and Trompem Tuesday”
If you missed MrTopStep “Unplugged” with Marty “The PitBull” Schwartz, here it is for you one more time!
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
- In Asia 9 out of 11 markets closed lower: Shanghai Comp +0.15%, Hang Seng -0.75%, Nikkei +0.31%
- In Europe 10 of 12 markets are trading higher: DAX +1.63%, FTSE +0.18%, MICEX +1.36%, Athens GD.AT -1.39%
- Fair value: S&P -0.65 , Nasdaq -0.07 , Dow -4.63
- Total volume: 1.89mil ESH and 12k SPH traded
- Economic schedule: MBA Purchase Applications, Quarterly Services Survey, EIA Petroleum Status Report, 10 Yr-Note Auction and the Treasury Budget..
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