Next Up U.S. GDP

Index Futures Net Changes and Settlements:

Foreign Markets, Fair Value and Volume:

• In Asia 8 out of 11 markets closed higher: Shanghai Comp -0.30%, Hang Seng +0.08%, Nikkei +0.56%
• In Europe 12 out of 13 markets are trading higher: CAC +0.36%, DAX +0.48%, FTSE +0.42%
• Fair Value: S&P +0.38, NASDAQ +10.22, Dow -24.32
• Total Volume: 1.03mil ESU & 391 SPU traded in the pit

Today’s Economic Calendar:

Today’s economic calendar includes GDP 8:30 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM ET, and the Baker-Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET.

S&P 500 Futures: Big Choppy Mess

Yesterday, most of the Asian and European major indices traded lower overnight, as did the S&P 500 futures. After trading up to 2849.75 before Facebook’s stock plunge after second-quarter sales missed forecasts, the ES sold off down to 2833.25 on Globex Wednesday night and opened at 2837.25, down -4 handles. The S&P 500 futures initially dropped down to an early low at 2835.25, and then rallied up to 2843.75 before trading in a 4 to 5 handle trading range for the next hour and forty five minutes. From there, the ES made a high at 2844.75, pulled back down to 2840.00, and rallied up to 2846.50 just after 11:00.

The next move saw the S&P’s sell off down to 2836.75 over the next hour, then rally up to 2841.75 at 12:30 before going sideways until the final hour when the futures started to sell off again as the MiM was growing to $450 million to sell. The ES had two more pullbacks down to 2837.75 and 2826.25, including two lower highs at 2841.50 and 2840.25, and then sold back off down to 2836.50 as the MiM went to over $1 billion to sell. On the 2:45 cash imbalance reveal the ES traded 2638.25, traded 2837.50 on the 3:00 cash close, traded down to 2833.50 after Amazon (AMZN) reported earnings, then shot up to 2943.25 and settled at 2842.25 on the 3:15 futures close, down -3 handles, or -0.11% on the day.

In the end it was a gigantic day of choppy trade. Break, rally, break rally all day long. In terms of the days overall tone, the Dow held together well, and the ES was firm but sloppy. In terms of the days overall trade, only 1 million ES contracts traded.

August Outlook: Hot Julys Often Bring Late-Summer/Autumn Buys

From Stock Traders Almanac:

Geopolitical concerns over the past few months from snafus and issues at the U.S. southern border over immigration disputes to tough tariff talk and trade war concerns have been shrugged off by the market since the end of June. Positive Q2 earnings, rising GDP growth, sustained unemployment and low rates continue to please the market, sending the market higher in July. This put DJIA up 4.00%, S&P 500 up 3.75% and NASDAQ up 4.40% for the month of July so far, qualifying this as a “Hot July Market”.

Gains of this magnitude for July, however, have frequently been followed by a late-summer or autumn selloffs and better buying opportunities than now. In the past, full-month July gains in excess of 3.5% for DJIA have been followed historically by declines of 6.8% on average in the Dow with a low at some point in the last 5 months of the year.

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_{Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.}