Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3432.25 | Opening Print: 3409.00 |
| Low: 3319.00 | High 3480.00 |
| Volume: 990,000 | Low: 3395.75 |
| ES Settlement 3436.50 | |
| Total Volume 2.7M |
S&P 500 Futures RECAP – Trade Date 11/4/2020
Election Uncertainty Leads to Rally
After trading in a 113.25-handle overnight range leaning higher, the S&P 500 futures opened Wednesday’s cash session at 3409.00, up 59.00 handles, and went on to trade the daily low of 3395.75 in the opening minutes. From there, a wave of buying entered the equity markets as the ES stormed up to 3464.25 for the early morning high, and then slowed down but continued to drift higher up to the daily high of 3480.00 just before 11:30 CT, up 84.25 off the morning low.
This set up for the S&Ps to top out late morning and then sell-off in an orderly fashion through the duration of the afternoon, printing 3431.75 for the late session low, down 48.50 handles off the highs before settling the day at 3436.50, up 86.50 handles or +1.70% on a total volume of 2.7 million.
In terms of the ES’s overall price action, it was all about buying the small dip on the open, and then selling the mid-morning rip.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
The last couple of hours for election day 2 were a sell after a strong morning rally. Early MiM flipped to a sell at 14:50 and built stronger dragging the market with it. The 15:50 reveal as a 1B sell, but the symbol count percentage at 60% showed it to be more a rotation than an actual market exit. The 15:55 candle was a sell for a nice 12+ points.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
Excess deaths are a useful resource to find the impact of current national health on deaths. Calculated weekly, it is very slow to build as states are slow to get their data in but it is a great gross overlook. The first chart is a look at the whole of the USA. You can see the flu season of 2017/2018 pushed our weekly deaths above the average. Also on the chart is the rise of COVID in late March. We have still not gone below the upper statistical line.
This table is NYC only and you can see the impact the April COVID outbreak had on its weekly deaths, nearly quadrupling it.
From this data, we can extract the number of extra deaths which now stands between 238,788 and 324,505. We most likely are undercounting COVID related deaths, but we can see that about 250,000 more people have died in the USA this year than previous years on average.
All this data is available on the CDC site on a per-state basis: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT / Chart of the day / Gold / Nov 5, 2020
Gold (DEC)
GMTT gave a buy signal for Gold above 1895 with a short term upside target at 1942.
It looks like Gold is ready for another breakout and we can see higher targets in the medium term.
Short term we can see one more pullback and the suggested sell stop is 1902.
A close below 1895 gives a short term sell signal.
For more info https://globalmacrotechnical.com
OUR VIEW
Higher Prices And Gridlock Ahead
Anyone that thought President Trump was not going down swinging is a fool. If there was a vote on anything that was a 100% sure thing it was that if Trump lost key battleground states by a close margin he was going to contest it and that’s exactly what he’s doing! While Joe Biden may have won the election the Democrats are far from where they wanted to be. The Democrats had big expectations of taking over the Senate but that didn’t happen and now all roads go through senate majority leader Mitch McConnell. Based on the level of hatred and distrust between the two parties I think it’s fair to say gridlock is upon us! At the end of the day I just want the race to be settled but I also want fairness. I want to move on and away from what I consider the ugliest presidential race in my lifetime. McConnell said yesterday that he supports aid to schools, hospitals and small businesses, but not a more sweeping Democratic proposal. He went on to say, “We need another rescue package, hopefully, the partisan passions that prevented us from doing another rescue package will subside with the election. We need to do it, and I think we need to do it before the end of the year.” I think this is something both sides of the aisle should agree on and get done with but now I am not so sure it will be that easy.
Our view, the ES us up 255 handles from Friday’s 325-day session low. If you take Friday into the count the ES has rallied an average of 65 handles over the last four sessions. As we all know, the ES hates uncertainty and that seems to be where we are at. Can the ES trade 3500 this week? I think it can but I also think it will be subject to ‘downside raids’. Our lean is for another day of big up and down swings with a slight bias to the upside. 3420 should be a good support and 3470-3480 should act as good resistance. Above 3500 I have 3540.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
