Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Following an explosive start to the week as indexes hit all-time highs, price relinquished those gains and consolidated, finding buy response at prior week’s high zone between 3510 – 3520. Range was 56.25 handles on 2.126M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is a decline with the average measuring 3498. Three-fourths of the expected decline is in place as price closed with a firm bid in prior session. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3540, initially targets 3565 – 3575 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3540, initially targets 3510 – 3500 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Thanks for reading,
Polaris Trading Group
In the Tradechat Room
Tuesday’s close was locked in a sideways dance waiting for the clock to run out. The 15:50 candle had a 1.2B buy but only 57% of our symbols had buy imbalances, so again more rotation going on here after the tech bad / planes good turnover on Monday.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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World daily cases and deaths continue to rise at an alaraming rate.
The UK and German mitigation strategy is starting to show dividends as the rate is beginning to flatten off.
Wear your masks!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT / Chart of the day / Crude – Nov 11, 2020
Crude is up over 20% since we went long at 33.80.
Our next upside target of 42.25 is hit this morning!
We have a next upside target of 43.80.
Raise the sell stop to 41.50
Traders can take profit either now or wait till the sell stop gets hit.
To sign up for a 14-day free trial of the Global Macro Technical Thoughts research report:
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3559.00||Opening Print: 3535.25|
|Low: 3511.25||High 3552.50|
|Volume: 500,000||Low: 3506.50|
|ES Settlement 3546.75|
|Total Volume 2.1M|
S&P 500 Futures RECAP – Trade Date 11/10/2020
S&P 500 Futures: Tech Selling Leads NQ Down 1.63%
After trading in a 47.75 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s regular session at 3535.25, down 16.00 handles, traded to an early morning high of 3546.25 before selling off down to the daily low of 3506.50, around 9:45 CT. From there, the ES rallied up to what would be the high of day printing 3552.50 just after 11:00.
The S&Ps would drift lower to an afternoon low of 3522.75 at 12:45 before firming up the rest of the day, eventually printing 3549.25 in the final hour before settling at 3546.75, up 2.75 handles or +0.08% on strong volume of 2.1 million.
In terms of price action, the day hardly had any real, lasting momentum. It was all about buying the midmorning low which led to a 46.00 handle rally.
Fear And Loathing
If I have to hear someone say they are depressed about the election again I think Ill commit ‘Im going to jump off a bridge’. Several times a day I field phone calls from well-to-do people that are having a hard time mentally. COVID19, the election and the next-door neighbor’s dog.
I am serious, everyone lays their crap on me but never asks how I am doing. Sometimes my buddy from Chicago calls and he always says the same thing ‘what’s up’. What do you mean what’s up? It’s a shit storm out there, where do you want to begin?!!! Like always, I say when I am wrong, Trump was right about the new COCID vaccines coming in November. It’s going to take 6 months to get the supply lines set up and distributed and several more months until it’s fully available. So don’t take any unnecessary risk because you think it’s over.
Our view, I really think people are whacked out. Continued concern about COVID19, its long term effects on the economy, a new administration, debt clocks keep running and is now over $27 trillion and total US tax revenue is only $3.44 trillion. Clearly, the US is going down the same road Japan took, print more money and worry about it later. At least Japan was not in the middle of a pandemic.
Our lean, I didn’t think the rotation out of tech stocks was over. The key to catching a good long will be when the rotation turns back to buying NQ and selling the YM, ES or RTY. I don’t know if today is the day for a ripper or if we have one last push down in the ES and rally later in the week. Either way, I think there are too many shorts around and we see an upside buy stop run coming. I may be wrong but the ES has taken a beating and somewhere in here, the range will but to the upside. If not the 3400 area down to the 3480 level should be good support. I wrote 99% of all the OPs at night and do not change them, it’s just after 6:00 ET and the ES just traded 3451. We shall see…
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.