Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): True to form for CD2, price successfully tested CD1 Low (3586.50) for surety during morning session, at which time price rallied, fulfilling 3620 3 Day Cycle Target. Remainder of the session price oscillated around the LIS (3608) handle, creating a Neutral Session. Range was 45.75 handles on 1.240M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Cycle price objectives have been fulfilled…As such we’ll mark today as a “wild-card” day, meaning price needs to either break above 2-day value high (3620) or break below 2-day value low (3600) to reestablish a directional bias. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3620, initially targets 3630 – 3643 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3600, initially targets 3585 – 3575 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 3 (CD3)
Thanks for reading,
Polaris Trading Group
In the Tradechat Room
The ES sold off into the 15:30 as the MIM was dwindling from a Buy to Sell. At 15:35 it officially flipped but the trend was apparent. Our reveal at 15:50 was close to 1B to sell and made for a dramatic 10-point candle but it was subdued buying into the close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
It’s Wednesday, time to check in to see how Europe’s new wave is going with increased lockdowns. The UK has yet to turn the corner as they struggle with increasing lockdowns.
France was the earliest to put in tough sanctions and have made a very sharp peak on their daily case count. That has not paid dividends yet in daily deaths, but it looks like the top is in.
Sweden is still sticking to their no mask mandate but they did curfew all bars and restaurants to be closed after 10 pm. That is a very dramatic clipping of daily new cases which as turned into a downtrend on new deaths.
Wear your masks!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – chart of the day – Sugar – Nov 18, 2020
The technical picture for this commodity turned bullish mid-Sep and that is when we went long at 12.88.
Yesterday Sugar reached our next upside target 15.46 – in percentage a 20% move.
We have a next target of 15.90 and our medium upside target is 17.70.
Suggested protective sell stop is 14.79.
On our chart of the day we cover daily another commodity.
However, in our Global Macro Technical Report – which is published three weekly and available for a free 14-day trial we cover:
Global Indices, stocks, bonds, commodities, soft commodities, currencies, and Bitcoin.
For more info and how to sign up for the free trial visit our website:
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3630.00||Opening Print: 3600.75|
|Low: 3593.00||High 3620.25|
|Volume: 150K||Low: 3584.25|
|ES Settlement 3581.25|
|Total Volume 1.2M|
S&P 500 Futures RECAP – Trade Date 11/17/2020
After trading in a 37.00 handle range in the overnight session, the S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s cash session at 3600.75, down 28.50 handles, and traded down to the daily low of 3584.25 in the first half-hour, attracting buyers that pushed the index up to 3618.50 for the morning high just before 11:30 CT. From there, the S&Ps would trade sideways, eventually printing the 3620.25 daily high just before 1:30 before selling off in the final hour down to 3598.25 for the afternoon low before settling the day at 3610.00, down 13.00 handles or -0.36%.
In terms of price action, it was about buying the 9:00 low which produced a 35 handle rally. In terms of volume, there was a modest 1.2 million contracts traded.
Smaller Ranges Meet ES Back And Fill
The 3 and 5-day ES trading ranges have fallen from 50+ handles to 34-35 handles over the last week as volume has dropped and back and fill has set in. There seems to be a consensus that the ES is going higher but there is a distinct pattern that has been showing up almost every day, an early pull back and then rally. This has created a thin to win type trade. Our lean is to sell the early rallies and buy the mid-morning pullbacks. 3580-3590 seems to be good support and 3630-3640 seems to be the resistance.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.