Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3680.00 | Opening Print: 3672.75 |
| Low: 3665.50 | High 3700.00 |
| Volume: 140,000 | Low: 3672.50 |
| ES Settlement 3691.25 | |
| Total Volume 957,000 |
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date 12/4/2020
S&P 500 Futures: Late Friday RIP Resisted at 3700
After trading in a 14.50 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Friday’s cash session at 3672.75, up 2.25 handles, traded a morning low of 3672.50 on the open, and then rallied up to 3693.25 for the morning high just before 10:00 CT. From there, the S&Ps traded sideways to lower through the remainder of the morning and through the noon hour making an afternoon low of 3685.50 at 1:30.
From there, the ES would hit buy programs beginning at 1:30 and then again at 2:30 which would push the index up to the daily high of 3700.00 in the final minutes before falling ten handles between the cash close and the futures settlement to end the day at 3691.25, up 26.75 handles or +0.71%.
In terms of price action, it was all about buying the open and taking profit at the cash close. In terms of volume, it was a very weak 957K.
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MiM
Early indication on the MIM was for a buy imbalance, that faded to neutral just before the reveal which gave us a 1.6B buy and sent the 15:50 candle up a couple and added momentum to the 15:55 candle for about an additional 5 points.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Covid Corner:
Looking at Europe and the USA the daily deaths number pace is just starting to curl up for the USA while there is a slight slow down for Europe. On daily new cases the upturn pace continues for the USA and for Europe there is a slight slowing down.
Wear your masks!
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
GMTT – Chart of the Day – Wheat – Dec 7, 2020
Wheat (MAR)
We are showing an updated chart on Wheat, and how it declined from 635.
Now trading around 567 and our next downside target is 523.
We have no position but expect to go long again once Wheat has bottomed.
A close above 581 is now needed for a buy signal.
Other Soft Commodities that we cover in our GMTT research report includes: Corn, Soybeans, Coffee, Cocoa, Lumber and Sugar.
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Our View
#ES 3700
I think the weaker growth picture combined with over 4 million COVID19 cases and the holidays just around the corner is pushing the democrats and republicans to finally act on a coronavirus relief bill. The friendly negotiation atmosphere could push the new bill into action before a government funding deadline at the end of this week. Like I said last week, the $908 billion bill is a far cry from what the democrats and Nancy Pelosi were asking for but at least the relief is finally coming. There are a lot of folks out there that need help and the passage of the bill could not come soon enough as several aid programs instituted in the spring expire at the end of the year which is squeezing lawmakers to pass more relief after months of failed negotiation. I’m hoping things get better as the new administration takes over but I think it’s going to be a big uphill battle to get all the promises delivered.
Our view, the ES traded at an important milestone last Friday; ES 3700, but you know what? Few were cheering! I know this may sound funny but sometimes I have to make a T – square to weigh things out. On the left-hand side of the T- square, I put the good things and on the right, I put the bad things and what I came up with is despite the stock market rally there are still way more negatives on the right side than positives on the left side. How long will it go one this way? Well, the answer to that is… as long as the government is printing money. Our lean, Friday’s late new high (which I called) was followed by a 10-handle drop. Is that significant? The size of the move isn’t but the 3700 print may be. Friday’s late push was a combination of big MOC buying and the Friday expiration and with those two components out of the way, it’s my guess we see some type of weakness/pullback. Sell the early rallies and buy the early pullback but keep in mind the S&P is up 15% in the last 25 trading sessions.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
