Market Review
They say the country is divided. I say was it engineered by Big Tech and the Media? The media has built a wall between Americans and America… We can’t call it the China Virus for political correctness…
This week was full of highs and lows. Mostly lows for Trump’s team. Nancy gave us a lump of coal for Christmas. And The Supreme Court took a pass. The Electoral College came and went. So how will today play out?
You and I both know the stimulus will be coming through but not the $1,200 token get out of debit card for the people. I think they are called deplorable… Sort of like the expendables without Sylvester Stallone. And don’t forget the deals made in the backroom by Mitch. What a beautiful photo op… Wear your mask or Nancy won’t talk to you. Let alone let you in!
In Colorado, big ole bubbas sit outside and drink beer inside a clear and white party tent beside a green Christmas tree turning blue in blistering cold twelve-degree temperatures at night. You can’t stop the American spirit. You can take away a country’s sovereignty and landmass but you can’t’ take away the spirit of the individual who lives in the country, state, city, and town. Personal sovereignty is on the chopping block! Not to mention religious freedom and equality.
The question might be, will Christmas be called off? There are left and right sides to this equation. It’s become political with a one percent failure rate. One percent of 7,832,883,008 is 78,323,830 people. To date only 1,668,642 have died according to worldometers.info. That works out to 0.0002 percent?
On Wednesday night Globex got over their skis with an all-time 3717 handle. I had the 15 and the 17 and if you got short you did well. There was not much to be had at the 3717 handle. The day was an S4H series day. With the three doors, you had to choose one and shut the others.
The question was in which window would the low be found? If you got short on the 3717 at the open then you would have held it to the MID AM LOW. Now, this could also be a Wedge Zoom. This is WB’s clock. I’ve kept it running since his passing a few years ago. It gives you an edge but it does take a while to wrap your head around…
Looking Forward Friday, December 18, 2020
Markets are drifting down from the previous day high due to the inability of Brexit sides to find common ground. And yes, of course, the death toll is sounding across the land as 2,000 more soles left their corporeal form than the day before.
Parties that be may have decided to push this Friday’s resolution to the weekend. I wonder if they did all-nighters in college… it’ll happen or not. We are soon going to find out. I think something else is holding up the stimulus. I’m sure it doesn’t involve you or me. To them, however, I’m sure it is very important.
Nancy wants to leave in the liability coverage so you can’t sue them if their (government/companies/pharmaceuticals) mandates go sideways and Mitch wants it out. I’m not a fan of Mitch but I do want it out too!. I want to be five years down the road and hear If you were forced to… call this number now for a class action lawsuit.
By my eye, yesterday’s trade was taking a little off by the Composite Man. Sure, who would not want to sell some at the all time highs? The opening 3711 was held on both sides. At least it did during the morning trade.
We had a tight 15 handle range on less than 900K volume. It drifted down. Traders were holding a bid looking to take advantage of the Stimulus news if it were to come out while the bigger traders were already coming out of some of their trade.
As I write, Globex found a lower low at 3699 handle and has traded off that low up to 3708 handle. The first target is the previous day’s open of 3711 and then 3717 handle. You have to think they are going to try to hold a bid unless something goes sideways in the distribution, stimulus resolution. I don’t see that and Trump’s tweets are relevant to move a market or else they will just silence them.
Sure some traders may go bid at the 3717 but to get there they’d have to take out the 3711 handle. The next objective might be 3724 and then 3730. Downside 3692 down to 3681 handle. That would not make Santa Happy for the rally. Perhaps Fauci called that off, too?
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: 46 points Monday, 2 points Tuesday, 13 points Wednesday, and 13 points Thursday. Total for the week 74 points, that would be $3,700 on 1 lot and $11,100 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe. After you subscribe drop me an email at trader@wyckoffamtrader.com we’ll set up a time to talk and help you discover how using WB’s clock can give you the gift of timing that you need in your trading life.
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MiM
A suprised BUY on the 15:50 MOC reveal and it took us up 4 points on the news. That 15:55 candle did all the retracing.
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Covid Corner:
Florida moved from stable to rising but North Carolina and Mississippi move from rising to stable.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
GMTT – Chart of The Day – Copper – Dec 18, 2020
Copper (MAR)
Copper continued its up-move and closed above 3.60 for the first time since Feb 2013!
Very short term we can see 3.67 but technically Cooper indicates an overbought sign.
On a close below 3.59 we get another chance to short Copper.
Gold (FEB) reached our target just shy of 1901 and suggest raising the sell stop to 1876.
GLD reached our target of 177.40 and suggest raising that sell stop to 173.60.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) reached another all-time high yesterday.
As mentioned Yesterday we get a next upside target of 26000.
However, nothing goes up in a straight line, and expect that another pullback in imminent.
A close below 21875 gives a short term sell signal and is the level that we want to go short Bitcoin with a tight stop.
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GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3717.50 | Opening Print: 3711.50 |
| Low: 3692.00 | High 3717.00 |
| Volume: 180,000 | Low: 3702.00 |
| ES Settlement 3712.00 | |
| Total Volume 1.5 M |
S&P Recap – Trade Date 12/17/20
S&P 500 Futures: Up 3 In a Row For All Time High Close
After trading in a 25.50 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Thursday’s cash session at 3711.50, up 17.25 handles, and traded to a 3717.00 daily high in the first half-hour before reversing to sell down to 3702.;00 for the daily low around 10:45 CT. From there, the ES traded sideways for the remainder of the morning. The afternoon saw a slow grind higher into the final hour with the index printing a late day high of 3716.00 before settling at 3712.00, up 17.75 handles or +0.45%.
In terms of the overall price action, it was all about selling the early high and then buying the 10:45 low and holding into the closing minutes. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was a moderate 1.t5 million.
Our View
Triple Header; Dow, S&P and Nasdaq New All Time Highs
Santa Claus came early this year. The markets were already on the upswing but the never-ending rally that started at the beginning of November has now pushed the ES up to 3723, meeting my 3720 upside objective. Between the Dec. quad witch and TSLA going into the S&P, there is going to be crazy movement and volumes the next few days. Additionally, I think the odds are 70% that the government gets its funding and stimulus done after lawmakers agreed to exclude money going directly to local and state governments that the republicans considered ‘bailouts’.
Our view, get ready for a big jump in volatility and trading volume over the next few days. As the S&P shrinks down companies to fit TSLA there are going to be some very big ‘rips and dips. Our lean is to sell out my NQ long into a push today and get flat. Ideally into the stimulus deal if it’s reached. While I think higher I also think it could be a case of selling the news.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
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