Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Price established CD1 Low (3256.50) during GLOBEX Session and was successfully tested during RTH Session. Once this level was found to be “secure”, afternoon rally began in earnest, closing near highs of the day.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price has rallied approximately three-fourths of projected range, targeting the 3316 cycle objective. As such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3290, initially targeting 3310 – 3316 zone and extended target measuring 3326.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3290, initially targeting 3270 – 3265 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
Thanks for reading,
Polaris Trading Group
In the Tradechat Room
A great setup for the MOC. The tick chart above is showing price action divergence from the NYSE ticks. As price (blue) pushed to a new high, the underlying equities market (white) was not bidding up. The lower trend in the ticks while price is moving up is a tick divergence. They don’t always resolve with price collapse, but this pricing was up against a ten handle market (+50) from the lows and an impending MOC that was signalling as a sell. The actual 15:50 number was about 1B to sell and that, along with the weak market support, sent the ES price down about 10 points.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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Checking in with Texas, they now lead the US in daily cases. When we last checked on Texas they were on a decent downswing. That has changed as college-age kids go back to school. The collegiate swing is underway.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3289.50||Opening Print: 3286.00|
|Low: 3256.50||High 3309.75|
|Volume: 450,000||Low: 3258.75|
|ES Settlement 3299.75|
|Total Volume 1.5 M|
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 09/22/ 2020
S&P 500 Futures: Turnaround Tuesday Sees a Modest Bounce
After another active overnight session, the S&P 500 futures opened yesterday’s cash session at 3286.00, up 5.25 handles, and in the opening minutes went on to trade what would amount to the morning high of 3291.75. From there the index would sell down to 3270.25 just before 9:00 CT and after a failed retest of the highs with a 3290.00 print at 9:30 the S&Ps would sell down to 3258.75 for what would hold as the low of day just after 10:00.
Through the rest of the morning, the futures would climb off those lows making a 3283.25 late morning high. Then after a pullback to 3269.25, noon buyers would enter the market and keep a consistent bid on the ESZ throughout the afternoon, and into the close with a late-day high print of 3309.50, a 50.75 rally from the morning low.
The ES settled the day at 3299.75 up 24.25 handles or +0.74%. Total volume was a much more modest 1.5 million compared to late. In terms of price action, it was all about finding the morning low and holding through the grind up to the late session high.
Powell’s Warning: Long Way To Go
Yesterday Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that the U.S. economy has a long way to go before fully recovering from the coronavirus pandemic and will need further support. “The path forward will depend on keeping the virus under control, and on policy actions taken at all levels of government.” A recovery is underway; “both employment and overall economic activity, however, remain well below their pre-pandemic levels, and the path ahead continues to be highly uncertain.”
I don’t think that’s anything new. As the economy dwindles and COVID19 cases surge as we head into the fall/winter I suspect things will take a turn for the worse. Last weekend I went to downtown Delray to watch the Heat / Boston game and I was in shock at how many people were downtown. It was shocking, almost like a holiday. Here are links to the MrTopStep periscopes I did and please excuse my French. https://www.pscp.tv/MrTopStep/1RDGlrvdbnqxL https://www.pscp.tv/MrTopStep/1MnxndveOYYGO https://www.pscp.tv/MrTopStep/1yoJMXEkrXeGQ
It’s a confusing state of affairs. People just do not want to be locked up in their homes, they want to get out but if those periscopes are a sign of things to come it cant been good. They say if England doesn’t stop the spread cases could jump to 50,000 a day and I can’t imagine what the numbers will look like down here. Currently, there are about 3,000 new cases a day in Florida but I think it could jump to 30,000 or even higher as the ‘snowbirds’ flock back down to Florida.
Above is a picture of LaSalle Street, the heart of Chicago’s financial district. The picture was taken yesterday in front of the CBOT/CME. I am so concerned about the big cities and wonder what’s going to happen to all those empty buildings. It actually scares the shit out of me. In NY only 6% have returned to work in the offices and even when COVID passes, what will those numbers look like? I know it’s never going to go back to what it was but holy smokes!!!
Our view, I think I have had a good feel for the markets and my trading has been spot on. I don’t pretend to be the ‘best trader’ I just want to control my risk and get out with my head above water. The game has changed so much I actually feel lucky to be profitable. Our lean is to sell the early rallies and buy the pullbacks. I do not think the rally is over. The average RTH 3-day trading range is 50.75 handles, the average 5-day range is 58.75, the average 5-day trading range is 55.56 handles and the 7-day trading range is 49.14 handles and the 10-day average range is 56.02 handles. So when you do pick a high or low remember what the average ranges are, pay attention to it, it may make you a lot more money if you do it right and hold your positions.
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