Market Review
This week has been an ideal example of how the clock can give a tuna/billfish trader an ideal trade. Hop on board long somewhere during the AM TURN on Monday and get out somewhere around the lunch high (upthrust out of distribution) yesterday!
Had you done that, you’d have taken home around 120 handles. Give or take a 10 handle on each side!
What’s a few handles among friends, said the bigger trader on the floor one day…
What could be more ideal? Free money on the table all week. No resistance from both houses. And who gets to sign it on Friday? Was’t there a speech made last night?
This was the week that trading was made for!!!
We started out with Globex holding a four hour resting spell at the the highs.
Then price is held in a fifteen minute handle looking for direction. We get a spring at 9:45 (spill seal) and price is off to take out the offers with higher highs.
I had 3918 as the first level of support. Ideally, you’d have held it till the AM or lunch high. WB would have been looking for a dog leg from the lunch high to mid pm low. And then blow out at the LAST HOUR HIGH…
Well, after a 10-handle run at the 10:10 you may have gotten out at the 3934 handle for 10 points profit.
That shakeout on high volume was custom made to “shake out” weak longs and let Old’ Daddy Bull get back in for one last ride to the top…
And he did. Took it 30 handles higher to the 3950 then started to get out on the sly.
First at the 3952, 3956 down to the 3947 handle. A quick spirt (3959 lunch high) sealed the turn and the 14:30 last point of supply confirmed the supply line for the dip down to close at 3936 handle.
If you loved and knew WB or you knew Wyckoff principles, yesterday was chocked full of them! Old school traders who we loved and miss dearly!
Looking Forward Friday, March 12, 2021
We had the CPI and the market ripped up. The Jobs Numbers and the market ripped up. The PPI is today. What do you think the market is going to do? “Free Money” has been approved. I’m sure you have read enough and seen enough.
The bonds is what I’m listening too. Sure, some folks blew out of tech and TESLA was in the red for the past few days. Mr. Musk lost 28 was it million or billion. Yes, billion. Most definitely billion.
As I write this, the market has drifted down to near test the low of yesterday big rally up. Some traders may have switched the Emini contract month. Others are waiting on Monday.
Most of the S&P securities barely got out of the previous day’s trading range. Globex has dipped down from the lunch high mentioned above.
Those bullish minded ones would hope the bulls could hold the open 3914 handle. Currently, Globex has tested that dip from the 10:20 marker and managed to retrace 50% of the decline.
Wyckoff would call that a normal correction. We will need to see how the first two waves play out. Who has the strongest following. Price respected the 3846 with three tests overnight. The old timers say; “Buy the rumor and sell the news.” It’s no longer rumor, $1.9 trillion has been released. Estimates say it will bring 10% percent.
Who wants to buy the market now? Contract month changing today…
I give you the best of the old school market technicians, JP Morgan, Herriman, Kearn, and Livermore. The traders of the 1930s. How they may have seen the market. I use the lens of Richard D. Wyckoff Principles and Procedures and through the eyes of WB’s hidden internal clock. The clock that controls all turns intraday every day.
We had a good week this week. Our subscribers have been very lucky with the levels given: Broke even Monday, 16 points Tuesday, 4 points Wednesday, and 24 points Thursday. Total for the week 44 points, which would be $2,200 on 1 lot and $6,600 on 3 lots. That’s due to the volatility that crept back into the market. I’ll be the first to say, it does NOT happen every week. When it does it’s a beautiful thing!
I would love for you to join us. If you have not taken the time, now would be a great time for you to subscribe. After you subscribe drop me an email at trader@wyckoffamtrader.com we’ll set up a time to talk and help you discover how using WB’s clock can give you the gift of timing that you need in your trading life.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM & SpyGate
The 15:50 MOC was a 1B sell with no real strong lean. All the selling was down at that point and while we continued our slide into the close the MOC reaction was buried into the trend of the market itself.
Spygate had a quiet trend in the morning, not really finding too much program activity on the tape. Just before 14:00 a decent sell program hit and then the market trend turned bearish and more sell programs joined the trend.
Just under 100 programs were detected for the day and almost all of them were in the last 10 minutes. The buy and sell programs netted out to exactly zero.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
The US continues to beat the 0.5% daily vaccination rate. Israel continues at 1% and Chile has taken the lead with a 1.37% daily vaccination rate.
The UK continues their first jab priority having 34% of their population with at least on jab while the US is just under 20%.
Full vaccination is still owned by Israel at almost 50% of the country now fully vaccinated. The US is now over 10%.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
Recurring surges in GameStop Corp. and other companies favored by short sellers may be deterring bets against U.S. stocks. The conclusion can be drawn from short sales of companies in the Russell 3000 Index relative to their float, or shares available for trading. For the index’s five most-shorted companies, the amount of stock borrowed and sold averaged 87.7% of the float at the end of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The average fell to 36.1% in mid-February and stood at 36.2% when the month ended.
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3929.00 | Opening Print: 3924.00 |
| Low: 3893.00 | High 3958.50 |
| Volume:170K | Low: 3919.00 |
| ES Settlement 3936.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.5M |
S&P 500 Recap – Trade Date March 11, 2021
S&P 500 Futures: All Time High Closing Print
After trading in a 36.00-handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Thursday’s regular trading hours at 3924.00 and traded the daily low of 3919.00 in the opening minutes before buyers came in and pushed the index futures higher, up to 3934.50 just after 9:00 CT. Then after a higher low retest of 3921.50 at 9:15, the rally continued with strong velocity over the next hour and then began to slow down at 10:30 when the ES would grind to the morning high of 3956.50.
The late morning continued to chop into the noon hour when the bulls last push reached the daily high at 12:15, printing 3958.50, up 39.00 handles from the morning low. At that point, afternoon sellers would begin to pick up slow but steady traction as equities would pull back off the highs, eventually trading to an afternoon low of 3934.50 before settling the day at 3936.50, up 31.00 handles on total volume of a decent 1.5 million contracts traded. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the open and then reversing in the noon hour, covering just before settlement.
Our View
Tech Stocks Push S&P To Record Highs
Tech stocks helped push the S&P 500 futures (ESH21:CME) to just a few ticks below its all-time contract high at 3959.25. Every major index closed in positive territory with the Nasdaq closing up 2.5%, the Russell 2000 was up 2.3% and closed at a new all-time high and the S&P and Dow Jones also finished at new record highs. The Dow made its 12th record high for the year and has closed up 5 sessions in a row and the Nasdaq is just 4.9% off its February 12th record high. Over 300 of the S&P 500 finished higher.
As I have always said, it takes days and weeks to knock the S&P down and only one to bring it back, in this case 5 days.
The ES has rallied 238 points off its 3728.50 low to yesterday’s 3958.50 high. That’s a gain of over 46 points a day over 5 days, clearly, a bear killing rally and we are good to go on the $1.9 trillion covid19 stimulus program. Our lean, the markets have gone a very long way in short order. We have a trading rule that after a big rally the ES tends to go sideways to lower. I still think the ES is going to 4000.00 or higher but I don’t think that will happen without a lot of stop and go.
The MrTopStep Trading Day Trading Rules
1. Do not over-trade
2. Do not take a loss home
3. Never add to a bad trade
4. Once you have a profit in a trade, never let it become a loss.
5. When making a new trade, set loss idea – don’t overstay or start hoping.
6. Don’t be a one-way trader. Be flexible.
7. Concentrate on one pit.
8. You’re trading to make money, not for fun and games.
9. Add to good trades only.
10. Learn the quirks of all traders and brokers.
11. Learn runners and brokerage houses.
12. Try to avoid trading in the market in the middle of the session unless it is really busy.
13. When carrying a position in the market, don’t leave the floor without leaving a stop loss order.
14. Never buy rallies or sell breaks when initiating a new trade – only do this when liquidating a bad trade.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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