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    Remember What We’ve Said About Mondays — Slow & Steady

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 5 JUNE: ASX rallies | banks advance, gold miners tumble | Dimerix raises $8.7 million to advance Phase 3 trial for kidney drug |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    Was Trading on the Floor Easier Than on the Screens?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 2 JUNE: ASX to rise | S&P 500 lifts in broad rally, techs extend gains | Cannon-Brookes’ Sun Cable win shows the growing appetite for renewables |

    The MIM Has Been Dominating the Sell Side

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 5 JUNE: ASX to surge | RBA policy decision awaited | Lithium trailblazer Iggy Tan is back in the saddle and gearing up for a new James Bay adventure |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

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    Remember What We’ve Said About Mondays — Slow & Steady

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    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

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    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    CME Loses Key Battle in Potentially Costly Trader Lawsuit

    24X5 Options Trading Begins Sunday, November 21

    ICE Notice

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Oil Contracts

    ICE: Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Gas Contracts

    CME Group Globex Labor Day Holiday Schedule

    Margin Rates Update for ICE Futures U.S. Power Contracts

    AP: US COVID-19 cases rising again, doubling over three weeks

    CME Group – US Independence Day Holiday Schedule: July 2-6, 2021

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    Remember What We’ve Said About Mondays — Slow & Steady

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 5 JUNE: ASX rallies | banks advance, gold miners tumble | Dimerix raises $8.7 million to advance Phase 3 trial for kidney drug |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 5 JUNE: ASX to surge | RBA policy decision awaited | Lithium trailblazer Iggy Tan is back in the saddle and gearing up for a new James Bay adventure |

    Was Trading on the Floor Easier Than on the Screens?

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 2 JUNE: ASX to rise | S&P 500 lifts in broad rally, techs extend gains | Cannon-Brookes’ Sun Cable win shows the growing appetite for renewables |

    The MIM Has Been Dominating the Sell Side

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

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  • Charts
    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 5 JUNE: ASX rallies | banks advance, gold miners tumble | Dimerix raises $8.7 million to advance Phase 3 trial for kidney drug |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 5 JUNE: ASX to surge | RBA policy decision awaited | Lithium trailblazer Iggy Tan is back in the saddle and gearing up for a new James Bay adventure |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 2 JUNE: ASX to rise | S&P 500 lifts in broad rally, techs extend gains | Cannon-Brookes’ Sun Cable win shows the growing appetite for renewables |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX rises, led by rally in health stocks | Paladin bounces back | Surefire Resources’ drilling confirms extension of mineralisation at Yidby gold project |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 1 JUNE: ASX to slip | Energy sector paces S&P 500 lower | Meet the gold explorer that thinks it can be the next Bellevue |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

  • Commentary
    • All
    • Market Recap
    • MrTopStep

    Remember What We’ve Said About Mondays — Slow & Steady

    Was Trading on the Floor Easier Than on the Screens?

    The MIM Has Been Dominating the Sell Side

    Use AI-Driven Rally to Reposition For Worst Months

    Bulls Are in Control, But How Sustainable Is the Current Rally?

    Can We Get an Options Squeeze for “Fry-Day?”

    The Selloff Is Putting Us Back Into The Painful Range Trade

    A Few Individual Stock Trades Stand Out

    Like a Tractor in a Rainstorm, the S&P Is Stuck in the Mud

  • Education
    • All
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    • Trading Methods
    • Trading Psychology
    • Trading Room
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    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Quantitative Statistics and Analysis, Make Better Trading Decisions – Free Webinar – Saturday 12:00pm ET

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: PINS Stock

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Trading the S&P 500 and the S&P Futures

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Here’s Why You Need Mr. Top Step

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Etsy Stock Tumbles

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Monthly Trading Time: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

    Chart of the Day: AMZN Stock

    Chart of the Day: Can Apple Stock Hit Record Highs?

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    Chart of the Day: Can GOOGL Stock Stay Up?

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Home Commentary

OP: Commodity Prices Rising; Who Will Pay the Price?

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
April 27, 2021
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OP:  Commodity Prices Rising; Who Will Pay the Price?
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Market Review

S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date April 26, 2021

Chart by AMS Trading Group

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Chart of the Day

GMTT / Chart of the Day / S&P 500 Index (JUN) / April 27, 2021

S&P 500 Index (JUN)

The S&P reached 4186 which is our next upside target. Now still remaining targets are 4208 and 4220, as per yesterday’s update. To the downside, we get 4174 which is now support. Below 4174 we can see a fast down-move to 4164 and if that doesn’t hold, we fall back to 4151, 4134, and 4112. Our focus would be short from 4186 with a buy stop at 4192. Above 4192 close the short position and then re-open if S&P can reach its next target of 4208.

GMTT publishes three weekly its GMTT research report covering the following:
Global Indices, VIX, a selection of stocks, Treasury Bond, Commodities, Soft Commodities, Currencies, and Bitcoin.

Sign up for a free 14-day free trial which you can subscribe to through our website:

GMTT 14 Day Trial

Our View

S&P Up 6% In April

The S&P is having its best month since November. After a late-day sell-off going into Friday’s close the ES traded down to the 4163 area, short-covered and traded 4178.25 on the 9:30 ET futures open, and then rallied straight up to 4183.50, recouping Friday’s closing weakness.  After the high, the ES dropped down to the 4176 area and then rallied up to the early high of the day at 4185.50 going into 10:00. Over the next 4 hours (until 2:09) the ES basically traded in a 5-handle range. After 3:00 the futures upticked as the early MIM showed over $400 million to buy. Out of nowhere a sell program hit just after 3:30  pushing the futures from  4184 down to 4173.25 in 2 1/2 minutes. The ES traded 4179 as the 3:50 cash imbalance ‘flipped’ from over $400 million to buy to $400 million to sell.  On the 4:00 cash close the ES traded 4179 and then settled at 4177.50 on the 4:15 futures close, up 11.5 handles or +0.28% on the day. 

In the end, the Nasdaq outperformed the S&P but both acted firm. In terms of the day’s overall trade, volume was low at 983,000 contracts traded  

The Street Guy 

I am not worried about selling the big tech names, in fact, I think some of FAANG will report record earnings. I am more worried about the Fed and how it deals with inflation. If you do not believe there is inflation I will give you a ‘simple’ way to look at and it’s the commodity markets. One year ago on May 1st the front month soybeans were trading $8.48, yesterday at 2:15 the (ZSK21:CBOT) traded $15.73, almost double the price in one year. Corn has gone from $360.50 up to $558.00. I hear it all the time that $100.00 doesn’t get you very much at the grocery store. Well, high commodity prices is just one of the reasons. Remember the China trade deal? Well the Chinese have never stopped buying and it has depleted our own reserves. I am not saying this is a game changer, all I am saying is it’s one example. Another good example is a year ago crude oil was trading $31.50 and yesterday it traded at a 52-week high of $61.89. Everything from hand soap to the burrito you buy at Chipotle to diapers has seen a price increase. And the cost of dining out has also increased sharply. P&G’s chief financial officer, Andre Schulten said the increase in commodity costs the company has experienced is one of the largest he has seen in his career, and he expects the pressure to grow. And chief financial officer at Coca-Cola John Murphy said “We’ve got a tried and true practice of being able to take pricing in line with inflation but  the company is facing margin pressures from rising costs for key commodities such as high fructose corn syrup and packaging materials.” Look, I am not an economist nor am I a farmer but you don’t have to be either to understand that this is a big problem and could get way worse this summer. All I know is when big companies are talking about passing the cost on it comes out of our pockets. 

Our view, so far 25% of the companies in the S&P have reported and the rise in commodity prices has become one of the talked about headlines. Will commodity inflation be where the crash comes from? No, I don’t think so but  I also think it’s going to be a ‘long, hot summer’. Today is day one of the fed’s two-day meeting and Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings. Our lean, I remain bullish but I think today could be a down day. Sell the rallies and use tight buy stops. 

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk free for 30 days.

Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME  trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS







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