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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 18 MAY: ASX rises 1pc; UK inflation surges to 40-year high of 9pc | Riversgold acquires key lithium ground in Pilbara | Shanghai lets financial firms resume work as COVID curb ease |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 18 MAY: ASX to rise amid broad rally in New York | Bitcoin above $US 30,000 | TMK Energy’s Snow Leopard-2 Drilling Underway |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 17 MAY: ASX rises 0.3pc; MinRes adds 5.7pc, Brambles falls 7.6pc | ASX rises 0.3pc; MinRes adds 5.7pc, Brambles falls 7.6pc | Indonesia posts largest ever trade surplus of $7.6 bln in April |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

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    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 18 MAY: ASX rises 1pc; UK inflation surges to 40-year high of 9pc | Riversgold acquires key lithium ground in Pilbara | Shanghai lets financial firms resume work as COVID curb ease |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 18 MAY: ASX to rise amid broad rally in New York | Bitcoin above $US 30,000 | TMK Energy’s Snow Leopard-2 Drilling Underway |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 17 MAY: ASX rises 0.3pc; MinRes adds 5.7pc, Brambles falls 7.6pc | ASX rises 0.3pc; MinRes adds 5.7pc, Brambles falls 7.6pc | Indonesia posts largest ever trade surplus of $7.6 bln in April |

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  • Charts
    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 23 MAY: ASX ekes out gain; Codan soars 14pc, Incitec tumbles | Archer Materials granted Australian patent for CQ quantum computing chip | Japan April consumer inflation beats BOJ target for 1st time in 7 years |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 23 MAY: ASX to open lower | Labor sweeps to power | EZZ works to catch e-commerce Southeast Asia growth wave |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 20 MAY: ASX closes 1.2pc higher, buoyed by tech | Nova Minerals unveils ‘significant’ lithium results at subsidiary Snow Lake’s project | Asian shares jump as China cuts key lending benchmark |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 20 MAY: ASX to slip as markets waver | Caravel confirms the copper keeps coming at Bindi West Limb |

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    Cabrera Capital Daily Game Plan

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: ARVO WRAP 19 MAY: ASX closes 1.6pc lower; Wesfarmers, JB Hi-Fi tumble | Big-name investors, politicians embracing oil and gas | Indian shares fall nearly 2% on inflation jitters |

    PEAK MORNING WRAP 28 September: Tech Event… Who is the standout? | US Stocks Rally

    PEAK ASSET: MORNING WRAP 19 MAY: ASX to plunge as inflation fears trigger Wall Street rout | Growth aplenty as Plenti delivers positive cash NPAT for FY22 |

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    Danny’s View: ES Rallies 240 Points From The Low. How Much Gas Is In The Tank?

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Home Commentary

OP: How Did Lumber (LBN21:CME) Become A Hot Commodity?

Danny Riley by Danny Riley
May 4, 2021
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OP: How Did Lumber (LBN21:CME) Become A Hot Commodity?
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Chart of the Day

GMTT / Chart of the Day / Crude (JUN) / May 4, 2021

Crude (JUN)

The market is bullish Crude since it broke out above 65.00. While we saw a few attempts before it did finally broke. This morning Crude is trading at 65.70 which was our next upside target. Crude gives a next upside target of 67.30 but it is now trading near its projected high. We have not been long Crude but tried a few times to short it. The reason is that it’s overdue a correction and we still have a lower target of around 61 that has not been tested yet. Enough reason to stay cautious. We suggested this morning to short Crude again below 64.90 with a buy stop at 65.70. Since that signal went out Crude tested 65.70 and that becomes the resistance for any short position. Nat Gas (JUN) not shown as a chart is also near a projected high and here, we want to go short below 2.86 with a tight buy stop at 2.94.

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Our View

June 2020 Lumber Chart  Almost 1 year ago lumber was trading around 4350.00 and as of yesterday the July 2021 lumber settled on the high at $1,418.50 up $42.00, a record and more than four times the typical price this time of year. 

Got Wood?

Anyone who’s looking to remodel or build a house will tell you what they are experiencing with lumber prices. If you pull up a chart of lumber, it’s absolutely flooring (and I’m not talking about Lumber Liquidators here). 

From the March low, lumber futures — /LB — are up more than 90%. From the January low, prices are up 152% and from the late-October low, prices have more than tripled, with a 226% appreciation. 

The lumber market has been prone to volatility in the past. But this type of move and the gyrations we’ve seen in the past 12 months have been unprecedented. Aside from having major impacts on homebuilders and contractors, one could argue it’s adding even more demand to a frenzied housing market that’s short on supply. 

Who wants to build when lumber prices — which climbed almost 50% in April alone — are skyrocketing like this? One report says the average new-build price has increased by $36,000 as a result of lumber prices. 

It’s not just inflation, either. 

While there is certainly an underlying reflation component to consider as the economy reopens, the lumber market has a more specific problem which is mostly tied to supply-chain issues. While robust demand does not help, prices were already on the rise last year due to tariffs. But after production shut down due to Covid-19, supply hasn’t been able to catch up. Of course, most of that supply is imported and hasn’t helped the situation. That’s left the market in the same situation as any other asset when supply can’t meet demand. 

Our view, not in a million years would I think I would be writing about lumber in the Opening Print but lumber has exploded, up almost 4x in a year. I remember the ‘lumber pit’ on the CME and we used to chuckle as we walked by it but this is no job. Only 120 LBN21:CME contracts traded, it’s a roach motel, you can get in but you can’t get out. Our lean, it’s 8:45 and the ESM is trading 4178. The ES looks weak but I have a buy level in the NQ at 13,710. I think we see a bounce, I just don’t if it’s going to hold when it does rip. 

As we all know, there’s no crystal ball when it comes to trading stocks, options or futures. But the Market Imbalance Meter may be as close as it comes. Knowing how the “Big Money” is placing its bets can give our trading room a big wave to ride — or a warning sign to stay out of the water. Come check it out now, risk free for 30 days.

Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME  trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.

As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS







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