NJ – Discovery Trading Group
Since bouncing off its 200-day moving average on June 29, the ESU20 could only manage a single 2-day pull back as it relentlessly pushed higher into blue sky territory of no structural resistance above. During last week, only the 3350 to 3365 support area was reached, and it firmly held the ESU20 lows for the week. In the trendline chart shared with DTG members every trading day, Monday’s inside trendline resistance and uptrend channel top held the high of the day and should slow upside price movement sans a bullish change in trader expectations.
The only structural resistance above is Monday’s 3429.50 high which is a week resistance until it proves it is not (which is unlikely). Structural support is nearly identical to last week:
3350 to 3356 – Aug 14 to Aug 21 lows
3319 to 3326 – Aug 11 and Aug 12 lows
3292 to 3300 – Aug 3 to Aug 5 resistance to support area
3255 to 3271 – Aug 3 and Aug 4 lows
3190 to 3112 – Jul 14 to Jul 21 resistance to support area
Note: a bearish change in trader expectations could send the ESU20 tumbling through all the structural support levels if the initial 3350 area is convincingly cleared.
Volatility has ticked up over the last 3 days as the bears failed to take the ESU20 down and then the bulls sent prices to new highs. For another week, the ESU20 has remained incredibly one sided and buoyed on hope, hope the coronavirus will be behind us, the US economy will recover, and US citizens will find meaningful work and come off unemployment.
Below is a snap of the ESU20 daily chart with the above support and resistance numbers marked for reference. Thanks again for reading. For more information on how DTG can help your trading, visit us at DiscoveryTradingGroup.com
In the Tradechat Room
Price is a better predictor on low volumes days than the early MIM indications. Shortly after 3pm when the MIM started flashing a sell, the market took off. It was one of those MOCs that was hard to buy after a 10 point move, but more upside was in the cards. The 15:55 candle was also a large buy.
estions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
We continue to track Covid-19 across all 50 states, DC, and Puerto Rico to gain a better understanding of what is happening. While detected cases continue to expand, we are not seeing the equivalent expansion in hospitalizations and deaths. Our table uses 7-day averages and takes a 5-day linear regression slope in order to detect changes as quickly as possible. We score each state by a normalized slope and ranking in each category (infected, admitted, and deaths).
Down across the board. The progress in Texas is encouraging. Would like to see faster downside in California.
We continue to focus on our top 3, Florida (20M pop), Texas (30M), and California (40M) looking at daily deaths, but more importantly, changes in the count.
Almost a beat all around on new daily deaths. California came in right on the number but we expect CA to slowly turn this week. Good progress in Texas and Florida
Over / Under
These are the over/under numbers for today. In order to push the 7-day average lower, today’s reported numbers need to be lower than the target number. A new case or death number that is higher will increase the 7-day average.
Yesterday’s over/under numbers and actual are also in the table.
|Florida||2,678 / 2,258||87 / 72||3,838||219|
|Texas||7,368 / 2,847||51 / 25||7,282||216|
|California||6,469 / 4,946||18 / 18||4,636||100|
|New York||408 / 408||6 / 7||655||8|
Use today’s numbers to watch the releases to determine the trend.
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Wear your masks!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3424.00||Opening Print: 3418.00|
|Low: 3393.50||High 3429.50|
|Volume: 210,000||Low: 3409.50|
|ES Settlement 3427.00|
|Total Volume 1.17 Milliion|
S&P 500 RECAP
Trade Date 08/24/2020
#ES Money Maker Chart
#NQ, #ES, New All-Time Highs
After rallying 31.75 handles in the Globex session, the S&P 500 futures fell back to open Monday’s regular trading hours at 3320.50, then traded down to 3314.25 in the first thirty minutes before rallying up to a session high of 3423.50 in the first hour, two ticks below the Globex high. From there the index would reverse, leaving sellers to push the futures down to a morning low of 3409.50 just before 10:00, a 14.00 handle pullback.
The rest of the morning was a chop sideways as the ES remained in a 9.25 handle range (3409.50 – 3418.75) from 9:58 am through the rest of the morning and then holding that range deep into the afternoon as buyers came in at 2:15 holding the afternoon low of 3410.50 and then pushed the ESU20 up to a new high of day at 3429.50, a 20 handle bounce in the final hour and a new all-time high. The S&P settled at 3427.00 up 34.50 handles or +1.02%.
In terms of the overall trade, buyers on the Globex open Sunday night, as well as late in the day yesterday, received the most benefit. If you were short, the only time was to fade the retest failure of the overnight high just after the RTH open. Total volume was a modest 1.24 million, the second most in the last 8 sessions. It looked like a “mutual fund Monday” type of run up, and once stocks were marked up in the first hour, then a classic reversal. However, the PitBull has an old rule that markets usually close in the fashion they open, and yesterday was an example of this as buyers owned the close.
August Rolls Into September
I am not saying this is going to happen but the public is always sold a bill of goods and pushed into thinking something very bad is going to happen and it almost never does, or if it does, it doesn’t last long. What am I talking about? The big selloff that’s supposed to happen in September and October in front of the presidential election. What I know is things like calling tops can be a very hard job and the reason is three letters, don’t fight the FED. Yesterday the ES made a new contract high and early last night the ES traded up to 3436.00, up 9.25 handles. After weeks of ‘trying’ to take out the ES contract high the futures hav now accelerated higher.
Our view, or lean is sell the gap up open or the first rally above, look for a 10+ handle pullback and start looking for the midmorning low for a long trade. Yesterday the S&P was the favorite son in the rotation, let’s see who has the ball this morning. Lastly, I think the probability of a 40 handle pullback will increase as the week rolls on.
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the week after the August exp. has been down 7 of the last 14 and Friday, the last trading day of August has the S&P up 17 of the last 23 years.
Market Vitals Technical Analysis
Did you know that your premium membership gives you access to our Market Vitals? Click on the image below and get today’s key levels.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.