Market Review
GLOBEX
| (ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session | (ESH20:CME) Day Session |
| High 3951.25 | Opening Print: 3947.75 |
| Low: 3934.75 | High 3952.00 |
| Volume: 155,000 | Low: 3947.00 |
| ES Settlement 3950.50 | |
| Total Volume 1.3M |
S&P 500 Futures Recap – Trade Date February 12, 2021
S&P 500 Futures: Up 9 of 11 Sessions
After trading in a 16.50-handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Monday’s cash session at 3947.75, traded the 3947.00 daily low on the open, and then rallied up to the 3952.00 high of day just before 10:30. The rest of the day remained inside the opening two-hour range settling at 3950.50, up 19.50 handles on modest volume of 1.3 million contracts. In terms of price action, it was all about buying the open and covering at the 10:30 daily high.
Economic Calendar
Closing Prices
In the Tradechat Room
MiM
Fridays are usually busier, if we turn up light again today, something’s up.
That comment was from Friday’s OP and we knew we were in for a big MiM either way after a very light week without any directional bias. Our early MiM was small but by 15:25 we had flipped to the buy-side and continued to grow in that direction. The markets started trending up which is another confirmation of the buy-side coming in late. The surprise happened at the 15:50 candle with 3+B to buy and a really nice 80% of the symbols in that direction. That put a nice cherry on the week and a meaty 10-point trade into the close.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
LAST CHANCE TO JOIN THE MIM AT 2020 PRICES. We need to raise our subscriptions prices for 2021 to cover the increased data fees. Why do internet and computers get cheaper and cheaper but data more expensive? To be grandfathered in for 2021 you need to purchase now.
Get the skinny when we get it: Join the MiM.
Covid Corner:
Checking in on our canaries in Israel who have the most aggressive vaccine program in the world with almost 50% of their population with at least one jab. The UK has a single jab experiment going on, opting to use second doses to vaccinate as many people as possible with a single dose. Financial times did a story that the UK strategy was paying off: https://www.ft.com/content/eb311423-dd2f-48f8-af57-8d8f0103c313. A single dose of Pfizer was 66% effective against infection and even more effective against infections requiring hospitalization. .
Even more impressive for Israel is that 30%, nearly a third of the country is fully vaccinated.
Dividends are starting to pay off as the over-60 crowd has now passed under the lesser vaccinated 0-59 population. There are two takeaways, the vaccines work but they are not going to abruptly stop the curves as Israel has been at this since December 18 and still has a ways to go before some sense of normalization and the rest of the world is many months behind.
Wear your masks!
Stay at least 10 feet behind someone wearing a mask! (Particularly in a checkout line)
Stay home!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
It has been a while, in fact about a year, since we posted an Oil chart in the Opening Print. CL has made a nice two-week bull run to get back up to the rim of the breakdown from the beginning of 2020 and the covid crisis which was actually having us see negative prices. Now we are banging on the $60/barrel level again and making headline news. Better covid, a promise of a returning economy and terrible weather are all more fuel for the fuel markets.
Our View
S&P 500 Future 3950
Cases of Covid-19 are dropping, hospital bed space is at 40%, and the Democrats are talking about bypassing the senate and pushing the $1.9 trillion stimulus package through. I feel confident that the package will be passed, I just don’t know when. While the public waits, the S&P will continue to trend higher. What happens when the stimulus package is announced? My guess is the ES will rally sharply off the headline and then drop. What has not changed is it doesn’t matter if the EA drops 40 points or 140, the ‘dip buyers’ will step in. I have to admit that I am concerned stocks have gone too far too fast but zero borrowing cost and $2 trillion in stimulus will supply record liquidity.
Our view, it’s 7:20 pm and the ES is trading 3948.00 with a 3952.00 high on abbreviated holiday volume of 172,000 contracts traded. Globex volume will look high but remember, that is Sunday night’s volume and Monday Globex session combined. Our lean is to sell the open or the early rallies and buy the mid-morning drop. If it works, the ES should pull back 15 to 20 handles if not more. ES heading to 4000.00 but not straight up.
Danny Riley is a 39-year veteran of the CME trading floor. He ran one of the largest S&P desks on the floor of the CME Group since 1985.
As always, please use protective buy and sell stops when trading futures and options.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. Decisions to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in the forum will be the full responsibility of the person(s) authorizing such transaction(s). BE ADVISED TO ALWAYS USE PROTECTIVE STOP LOSSES AND ALLOW FOR SLIPPAGE TO MANAGE YOUR TRADE(S) AS AN INVESTOR COULD LOSE ALL OR MORE THAN THEIR INITIAL INVESTMENT. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
