Polaris Trading Group: Taylor 3 Day Cycle Commentary Author: David D Dube (PTGDavid)
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price did reach 3 Day Cycle Target (3415) as bulls had total control, until POTUS “tweet-bombed” the party, by halting all Stimulus negotiations. Market abruptly relinquished past two session gains in a matter of two-hours. Range was 91.25 handles on 1.671M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently below CD1 Low (3346.50) with good odds of recovering back above at some point in today’s session. Cycle targets have been fulfilled, so price is free to roam the range for balance. As such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3346, initially targeting the 3360 – 3365 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3346, initially targeting the 3330 – 3315 zone.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet >> Cycle Day 3 (CD3)
Thanks for reading,
Polaris Trading Group
In the Tradechat Room
A 140-word tweet from the right or wrong guy and down you go about 60 ES points. No play on the MOC as President Trump’s tweet about no stimulus until after the election caused an already baked in market to drop like a souffle.
Questions? Please email me: Marlin@mrtopstep.com
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A tale of two states, New York and Florida. Each state has its unique characteristics but both states are about the same population size. New York got hit early in both time and learning cycle and paid a dear price from which we all have benefitted from. Florida has been fairly lenient on the shutdown restrictions and had their peak later and never really brought it down to near zero as they did in New York.
In October NY joined back into the 1000 club passing the 7-day average of 1000 new cases a day and now is around 1,300 compared to FL which sits at around 2,300 but heading in a positive direction.
Looking at daily deaths below:
To use our table, go to https://t2r4.com/cv19/views. Each column is sortable and if you click on a cell you will get a time-based chart of the state.
Florida is losing about 90 citizens a day compared to about 9 in New York. That is 10x more in Florida. Looking at overall deaths since the beginning of the pandemic New York has lost about 33,000 compared to Florida’s 15,000. That is 2x in the other direction. Florida has managed to flatten the toll over time while minimizing the damage to those that are not at as high risk. The Chart of the Day below shows Florida restaurants open for reservations compared to New York. New York is just at Florida’s lowest response.
We all have a long way to go, I hope we figure out how to do it as safely as possible for both us and our economy.
Wear your masks!
Take your Vitamin D!
Chart of the Day
|(ESH20:CME) GLOBEX Session||(ESH20:CME) Day Session|
|High 3403.00||Opening Print: 3399.25|
|Low: 3380.25||High 3421.75|
|Volume: 190,000||Low: 3343.75|
|ES Settlement 3352.25|
|Total Volume 1.6 M|
S&P 500 RECAP – Trade Date 10/06/ 2020
S&P 500 Futures: Hold On, The Is About To Get UGLY (er)
After a sideways 22.75 handle overnight range, the S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s regular session at 3399.25, up 5.25 handles and would trade up to a morning high of 3405.75 at 9:30 CT before reversing lower, printing the morning low of 3386.25 just before 11:00. The late morning would see higher prices through the noon hour until the S&Ps would hit a high of the day at 3421.75 just after 1:30.
From there, sellers would enter the index markets leading to a sharp pullback as the ES pushed downward through the morning low, then through Monday’s RTH and Globex low, and trade underneath Friday’s settlement, printing 3343.75 just before close, a 78 handle turn around before settling at 3352.25, down 40.75 handles or -1.20%.
Buyers of the late morning low were paid, however, those who faded the early afternoon high ruled the day. Total volume was a modest 1.6 million up 60% from Monday, with most of that in the final two hours of the session.
WARNING; Over the next 60 days it’s best not to get too comfortable being overly bullish into a rally or too bearish into a decline because the stock market has entered what I call headline hell. I know some people didn’t like it when I posted on Twitter that Trump was not going to get re-elected and I still feel that way. His overly combative approach to the first presidential debate showed his lack of control. Maybe that was his staff’s plan because it would throw Biden off but as I said after the debate ‘he held his own’. The next part of this was when Trump contracted COVID19 and stayed in the White House for 2 or 3 days before going to Walter Reed Hospital, the next part was when he left the hospital for a cruise and the last part was when he walked out of the White House, took off his mask and walked back in without it. They say one of the medicines he took, dexamethasone, is known for causing hallucinations and based on his actions I have to wonder if that’s the case. I am not trying to be mean but he has been off his rocker. As of this morning, there are only 27 days until the election but it’s my guess this drags on for at least two weeks after November 3rd.
I made a small comeback yesterday. On Monday night I put in 3 low ball ES bids, 3381.00 on 2, 3371.00 on 2, and 3361.00 on 2. I got filled on the 3381.00 and sold 1 at 3401.00 and 1 at 3421.00. At around the time I got filled on the 3421s the PitBull called me and said, ‘you must be filled at 3421.00 because the futures just traded 3421.75′, and while on the call he said ‘what the hell just happened?’ The ES just dropped down to 3296.00!’ Well, we all know what that was, President Trump tweeted that he was calling off the stimulus negotiations until after the election. The ES literally crashed in a matter of minutes, dropping 85 handles. One of the things I have said many times is that I would rather be lucky than smart and yesterday was a perfect example of just that! Trust me, that was not Irish Luck…
Our view, I think the ES is going to get a lot more volatile as the election nears. It’s just after 8:00 PM CT and President Trump is hitting twitter again, doesn’t he have COVID19? Our lean is that we can’t rule out some type of rally but I think it will get sold. If we gap up or down sharply on the open my lean would be to fade it but this headline hell is not going away so stay on your toes and don’t get too complacent.
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